The Diamondbacks are 7-5, fourth in the Cactus League, and still only the third best NL West team in the league. Preview of what’s to come?
James: While I never consider Cactus League indicative of anything remotely accurate to the regular season, I do still think AZ finishes 2026 in a battle for third or fourth.
Wesley: There’s very little correlation between a team’s performance in spring training and how they ultimately do in the regular season, although I also wouldn’t be surprised if they finish third or fourth anyway. I am actually somewhat encouraged by the performance of some of our young hitters. Seeing Jordan Lawlar, Tommy Troy,
Ryan Waldschmidt, and Alek Thomas hit the cover off the ball this Spring should be a sign of encouragement, but it has to be taken with a massive grain of salt especially with Thomas and Lawlar’s previous offensive struggles.
Makakilo: The manager and coaches are looking at things that don’t show up in the box score, such as player skills, poise, and confidence. Three thoughts follow:
- In the first 11 games, the offense scored an average of 6.5 runs per game. That encourages me to predict above average offense.
- With four infielders who are excellent defenders (Arenado, Perdomo, Marte, and Santana) now playing WBC games, runs allowed are not predictive of the regular season.
- Thru Saturday the 5-inning win-loss record would be 4-10-1, which is worse than their full-game win-loss record of 7-8. Nevertheless, my view is that 81 regular-season wins is the floor for the Diamondbacks.
Spencer: They keep a record of Cactus League results?
1AZfan1: Ha Spencer wins
How’s the unexpected fifth starter competition going? Any standouts to you so far? If the season started tomorrow, who gets the nod?
James: This is sort of a trick question for me. If Merrill Kelly is healthy enough to not miss more than the first run through the rotation, I don’t see much of a competition for fifth starter. Michael Soroka was never a serious rotation candidate, despite the narrative around his initial signing. If Soroka is in the rotation, someone is hurt long-term. That would be bad.
Wesley: I’m with James on this, it really depends on how many starts Merrill Kelly is likely to miss. Soroka has stood out to me for the wrong reasons, as he’s been awful so far this spring.
Spencer: Sadly I agree here. I think unlike with The Bum and The Full Monty, Rodriguez is guaranteed a rotation spot because he was actually a Hazen target and signing not a Kendrick splurge. I personally would rather have Soroka in there but he’s headed to the bullpen most likely. I think the only way that changes is if Pfaadt has a rough go and they choose to stash him in Reno for some reason. I put that option at 10% likelihood.
1AZfan1: Concur with the consensus. Soroka will be the odd man out if Kelly is healthy enough to start the year on the active roster.
Makakilo: The following is good news about Kelly:
“But, after throwing 26 pitches Thursday and feeling no discomfort Friday, Kelly may very well be able to open the season on the active roster and pitch at the backend of the rotation.” – Steve Gilbert, 6 March
On the flip side, who gets the ball on Opening Day 12 games in?
James: Unless Ryne Nelson turns into Brandon Webb between now and just under three weeks from now, the answer is Zac Gallen. It shouldn’t even really be a debate.
Wesley: Ryne Nelson has actually been better than his already solid performance this spring, but James is right, Gallen is the obvious answer here.
Makakilo: Last season, Ryne Nelson pitched better than Gallen (ERA 3.39 vs 4.83, FIP 3.73 vs 4.50). Therefore, Ryne Nelson is my choice.
Spencer: The concept that Opening Day Starter means something still confuses me. Whomever is ready and looks good will start. We play in LA. You can basically pencil in a loss already. So ERod or Pfaadt gets my vote.
1AZfan1: Nelson deserves it. He’s been our best starter for the past year and a half. Opening Day starter is largely ceremonial in my mind, so I could see the argument for Gallen getting the ball as he’s been the guy for the past 3 years. Torey has a valid excuse to delay Gallen’s start to the home-opening series, though. If this isn’t Nelly’s perfect opportunity (late start for Gallen and Kelly injury setback) then I don’t know what is.
Jurkison Profar will be serving his second PED suspension in 2 years. Is that a sign the program is working? Or do you feel it’s a sign that even more is happening we can’t see?
James: In this particular case, both. Overall, I think the system works as-is. While the system is far from perfect, it has the sort of teeth that clearly have had an effect.
Wesley: I think there’s a very real issue with medication/supplement labeling in Caribbean and Latin-American countries. There’s also the real issue of tainted/adulterated supplements being sold online as well. While I don’t think that either is applicable in Profar’s case, both are very real issues not being discussed, and MLB really needs to do a better job educating young players on “Maybe don’t take that sketchy supplement from a pharmacy back home” and “Don’t order cheap bulk supplements from a sketchy online retailer.”
Makakilo: There is reason to believe the program is working to reduce PEDs. Looking at this Wikipedia Website, suspensions of MLB players and former MLB players dropped from about 10 per year in 2020 to 2022, to about 6 per year in 2023-2025, with 3 so far in 2026.
An interesting point is that Profar had nothing to gain financially from using PEDs. His high-paying contract was good thru the 2027 season. That would be his age 34 season, which might have been his last season before retirement (and now it looks likely to be his last season before retirement).
Profar’s reaction after his first suspension (assuming it was unintentional per his statement at the time) should have been to consistently guard (and document) his intake of foods, vitamin supplements, and medicine to for-sure avoid a second suspension. Some people might have avoided anything that might have a risk, even if it hurt their health. And yet he is facing a second suspension. Why?
Spencer: Working. The league is actually testing people and following through on punishment. The list of PED users this decade is laughable. And Tatis showed a new generation just how good PEDs can make a player. Profar has proven how stupid players can be…
1AZfan1: I think that’s a really interesting point brought up by Wesley. Something worth looking into further for sure. General rule of thumb is that programs like these don’t catch every rule-breaker, but I still speculate that the program is working overall, though.
What’s your favorite Spring Training park?
James: Trick question. While I am torn between Scottsdale Stadium and SRF for favorite venue, my favorite place to attend an actual game is Tempe Diablo. If one arrives early to the game, there are shaded tables situated along the outfield concourse with individual seats. The view is great. Sitting in those seats allows stretching out. The shade is a massive boon. Also, the be girl is 8-10 feet away. My mattress and I regularly have purchased premium seats to enjoy the game (in case we couldn’t get one of those tables). We then don’t feel bad if we monopolize one of those tables for the duration. Without that loophole, Tempe Diablo needs a serious updating.
Wesley: The two spring training parks I’ve been to no longer host spring training games, ie Hi Corbett Field and Kino Ballpark. I can’t really answer the question honestly.
Makakilo: I, like Wesley, have been to games at Hi Corbett Field and Kino Ballpark. Also, many years ago, I went to Surprise Arizona. Because Surprise was a delightful adventure, and because spring training games happen there this season, my choice is Surprise Stadium.
Spencer: I have no idea what parks I attended as a kid living in Phoenix. So I’ll just say Peoria because it’s the only one I’m confident I went to. As I recall, most Spring Parks are nicer than Chase, but lackluster compared to most AAA/MLB parks around the country. I’m also told this has been changing since I left AZ in 2012.
Justin: Same as Wes. I think of the two, I preferred Hi Corbett. It’s an older ballpark, so maybe the old timey nostalgia feel. When the Sidewinders were still here, I would go to several games over the summer (yay living at my parents house still…) at Kino, versus maybe 1 game at Hi Corbett so that might add to it.
1AZfan1: I’ve only been to one Spring game in the past 20 or so years and that one trip to Salt River Fields was very nice. Baseball is generally a nostalgic pastime, though, so with that in mind, my absolute favorite Spring Training memory occurred at Peoria Sports Complex. I was thrilled to see my all-time favorite player, Ken Griffey Jr., launch a moonball to the top of the berm in right field in his first AB of the game. I was the happiest kid alive that day – except for maybe the kid who got that Griffey home run ball. So I’ll go with Peoria as my fave.
