Tom Pohlad wants you to believe the Twins will be able to contend in this division despite not giving the front office the resources to do so. They have a lot of talent and untapped potential, and maybe
a new coaching staff can do a better job of helping them reach their ceiling, but they’re also running a payroll below Metrodome levels when adjusting for inflation and league spending.
FanGraphs projects the Twins to go roughly 80-82 with a 16% chance to win the division and 32% chance to make the playoffs. That feels optimistic relative to how 2025 finished, but it’s important to remember that the Twins were missing Pablo Lopez, Byron Buxton, Bailey Ober, Zebby Matthews, David Festa, and Ryan Jeffers for most of that stretch.
The Twins also still managed to take regular leads into the late innings and lost them thanks to Justin Topa and Cole Sands getting overworked and overtaxed. They were the third-worst bullpen in baseball by WPA after the trade deadline, but will naturally see that improved due to sheer bullpen luck and some combination of Connor Prielipp, David Festa, Marco Raya, Mick Abel, and Kendry Rojas giving a boost in pure stuff, if nothing else.
Their main competition will be the Tigers, led by back-to-back Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal and new acquisition Framber Valdez. The Royals made some additions on the margins but are currently slated to start a 22-year-old rookie catcher at DH. The Guardians, meanwhile, are always a threat due to the black magic and satanic sacrifices they make to start each season. Their most recent sacrifice to the baseball devil was three-time All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase, who reportedly fixed pitches in 48 (!!) separate games in the past two seasons.
That being said, the Twins’ starting pitching is probably the single best position group in the division. The Tigers are giving them a run for their money, but there are still a lot of question marks and health uncertainty behind their two stars. Minnesota’s rotation goes legitimately 12-deep with MLB-caliber starters. Even if several move to the bullpen, they have the prospects to withstand a slew of injuries at any point in the season.
They’ll need better health luck from players who haven’t had it in the past (Lewis, Keaschall, Wallner) and major steps forward from some young hitters (Lee, Roden, top prospects Jenkins and Rodriguez), but that was essentially the formula that allowed the Tigers to compete last year and the Royals to do so in 2024. The Twins are flawed, but they’re also in unquestionably the worst division in MLB.
Do you believe Tom Pohlad that the Twins can compete right now? Does their have to be a major trade to do so, or would a few marginal upgrades in the bullpen be enough with internal development?
