Right after I wrote my previous Giannis piece predicting that this saga will drag out into the summer, Shams reported that the Bucks are now listening to offers on their franchise player. I’m still not
convinced that he’ll be moved before the deadline, but this might just be the jinx that’ll result in a trade.
So far, the Warriors, Wolves, Knicks, and Heat have been the teams most aggressively pursuing Giannis. Importantly, every team in the league can offer most assets in the summer given that more picks will be eligible to be dealt, which is why Milwaukee should be in no hurry to deal their star. That includes the Bucks themselves, who only have one tradable first (2026) currently but will have three to offer in the offseason. If Milwaukee attempts a last-second hail mary to entice Giannis to stay, they could deal their two future firsts for a star while adding a lottery talent with their pick this year, which could end up as high as the #2 selection. That might be the unlikeliest scenario given where we stand today, but it’s worth noting given that Milwaukee has never signaled any desire to deal their star and Giannis himself has never turned down a max contract offer either.
Speaking of an extension, the timing of a potential trade would affect when the Greek Freak can sign his next contract too. If he’s dealt before the deadline, his new team could present a max offer in October (which is also when Milwaukee can), but if he’s traded in the summer, they would need to wait another six months before being able to extend him. I doubt this could affect the max contract coming his way, but Giannis would naturally feel a lot more comfortable putting pen to paper as soon as possible, especially considering his recent injury history. He has enough power in the organization to demand a trade before the deadline, although it’s unlikely given how non-commital he’s been throughout this saga — stranger things have happened in the NBA, though (see: one year ago).
Enough preamble, let’s get to the fun part: trades! We’ll go through the teams that have already shown interest and dark horse candidates lurking to make a surprise offer out of nowhere.
Golden State Warriors
Tradable firsts: 4
Intriguing players: Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski
Golden State has the most firsts they can offer out of the quintet of teams who’ve shown the most interest in Giannis and can put together the most enticing package without having to make additional moves. They don’t have a blue-chip young player, but the Warriors will be forced to use one of Jimmy or Draymond to salary match — both of whom could be flipped for even more picks. Crucially, those firsts also extend to the latter part of this decade and into the 2030s, when Steph will likely be retired and Giannis will either be past his prime or on another team entirely. If there’s one team whose picks could become lottery tickets, it would be Golden State’s.
Miami Heat
Tradable firsts: 2
Intriguing players: Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr.
The Heat don’t have as firsts as Golden State but the players they can offer are much more intriguing. Tyler Herro was an All-Star as recently as last season and can be used to salary match, and Kel’el Ware is one of the best prospects who could realistically be included in any package for Giannis. Interestingly, the Hornets have Miami’s 2027 protected first that could convey to a 2028 unprotected pick, and due to the Stepian rule, this prevents the Heat from dealing any of their 2027, 2028, or 2029 firsts. However, if they add a sweetener to Charlotte and convince them to change that pick to just a 2028 unprotected first, that would give Miami a third pick to throw in a Giannis deal. Given the Heat’s infrastructure, those picks won’t be as juicy as Golden State’s, but their young players are much more intriguing.
The X-Factor: Portland Trailblazers
Tradable firsts: Milwaukee’s own unprotected 2029 first, and unprotected swaps in 2028 and 2030
Intriguing players: Jrue Holiday, Jerami Grant, Scoot Henderson
Before diving into the Wolves’ and Knicks’ potential offers, we need to discuss the Blazers first, and that’s because Portland owns Milwaukee’s unprotected 2028 and 2030 swaps, and an unprotected first in 2029. I doubt the Blazers would want to trade for Giannis outright, but they could act as a crucial broker between Milwaukee and another team who would send assets to Portland in exchange for them sending Milwaukee their picks back. This would be especially likely if the Wolves and Knicks want to enter the bidding war, and it’s worth noting that Giannis is rumored to want to play with Jrue again.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Tradable firsts: 0 (only one swap in 2028)
Intriguing players: Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Donte DiVincenzo
The Wolves will need to involve a third team in order to make a Giannis trade work due to the lack of draft compensation they can offer. Randle and Gobert are both having All-Star-level seasons, but McDaniels should have the most value out of the three: he’s averaging 14.9 points on 51.2/44.5/84.9 splits, and I could see him breaking out with a bigger role like what Mikal Bridges did in Brooklyn. The likeliest path to Minnesota getting in on Giannis would be trading one or both of Randle/Gobert for a boatload of picks to re-route to Milwaukee, along with McDaniels. Portland would be the most obvious third team to facilitate such a deal since they could give back the Bucks’ own picks, but they’d likely only be interested in McDaniels too. This is why three-team trades are so difficult to execute, and the Wolves will need to make a number of side deals to even get into Milwaukee’s attention.
New York Knicks
Tradable firsts: 1
Intriguing players: Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Deuce McBride
Similar to Minnesota, New York is devoid of draft capital currently, but will have three firsts to offer in the summer. If we focus on the present, though, the only way the Knicks could get Giannis is by trading at least one of KAT/Bridges/OG for picks and offering those to Milwaukee along with McBride, their only intriguing young player. If they choose to involve Portland, the Blazers would likely have interest in one of New York’s wings, but I’m not sure if they’re worth giving up Milwaukee’s picks for. Again, an almost impossible deal to execute, and the Knicks will have a much higher chance of landing Giannis if he either demands to go to NY, or this drags into the summer.
Dark horse teams
Orlando Magic: The Magic have had a turbulent season, with Paolo being a significant reason for that. Would they ever consider putting their so-called franchise cornerstone on the table for Giannis? Such a trade would need to happen in the offseason given that Paolo is poison-pilled currently, but if it happens, the Bucks would be hard-pressed to find a more intriguing young player to acquire.
Cleveland Cavaliers: The exact same can be said for the Cavs if you swap Mobley in for Paolo. A DPOY winner and All-NBA player as recently as last season, Mobley hasn’t taken the offensive jump many envisioned, and the Cavs could be in for some big changes if they flame out in the playoffs again. Another wrinkle in this is Donovan Mitchell’s future, with 2026-27 being the last guaranteed year remaining in his deal. With that in mind, would Cleveland be more hesitant to go all-in, or would they go in the opposite direction and trade everything for potentially their last hurrah next season?
San Antonio Spurs: Let’s make one thing clear: San Antonio has given no indications that they’re interested in Giannis and has always said that they’re building on Wemby’s timeline. I’m listing them here purely because they have the exact package Milwaukee is after: blue chip prospects like Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper, and a boatload of firsts to offer (4+). Given the amount of draft capital they have, there’s a better chance that the Spurs would use their picks as a facilitator for another team to acquire Giannis, with San Antonio getting a young player who fits with their core in return.
Houston Rockets: Like San Antonio, Houston hasn’t expressed any interest in Giannis but has young players like Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun to include in a theoretical package, along with a plethora of picks. However, they said the same before trading for KD last summer, and given that he’ll turn 38 in September, the Rockets might be more inclined to make an all-in move in the summer if they flame out in the playoffs.
Other players and teams to monitor before the deadline
Michael Podcast Jr.: Possibly the hottest name on the market outside of Giannis, no one is sure if MPJ will even get moved, but his trade value will never be higher. The Nets could feasibly fetch two firsts for him if they drum up a bidding war, which essentially means that they’d have fetched 3 firsts from the original Cam Johnson trade. Given MPJ’s seamless fit into any team and his all-star level production this year, he may very well swing the title race — if he’s moved.
Ayo Dosunmu & Coby White: The Bulls will likely keep one, if not both of White and Dosunmu to aid their quest for the 100th consecutive 39-43 season, but any semi-competent franchise would have put them on the market already — especially given how cheap Reinsdorf is. Both guards will become UFAs this summer and are due for big raises, but it wouldn’t be shocking if they fetched first-rounders each. White is an offensive dynamo who can bomb from deep while Dosunmu provides more two-way value, and they’re capable of being a 4th/5th starter or an elite sixth man on any contender.
Boston Celtics: No one predicted that Boston would be on pace for over 50 wins without Jayson Tatum, whose potential return is still in question. Given their success, would management be willing to buy at the deadline, even if it means going deeper into the luxury tax and potentially back into the second apron? With the Celtics only $12 million above the tax line, they could even go the opposite direction and shed salary by trading depth pieces like Simons ($27.7 million) and Hauser ($10 million) for cheaper but comparable players. It all depends on how far the organization believes they can go this year, and whether or not Tatum will actually return.
Cleveland Cavaliers and… James Harden(???): The Cavs’ trade with Chicago and Sacramento wasn’t just to dump a struggling DeAndre Hunter for two useful players — they also saved roughly $40 million in luxury tax simply by making this deal. That’s a crucial thing to keep in mind when looking at other deals they could make, which might include… James Harden??? Late Monday night, Shams reported that the Beard is looking for a new home, and shortly after, Chris Mannix followed up by saying that the Clippers and Cavs have engaged in talks surrounding a Garland/Harden swap.
Excuse me??
Yes, Harden is a decade older than Garland, but he’s also been much better this year and has a partially guaranteed deal next season, whereas Garland is signed through the 27-28 campaign. Given that Cleveland has already shed salary in the Hunter deal, a potential Garland/Harden swap is further proof that they’d like to clear up their books for this summer and next season. Could that be related to a Giannis trade? Only time will tell, but there’s no doubt that the Cavs have suddenly become arguably the most interesting team to monitor at the deadline.
