Good afternoon everyone, it’s time to dive back into the mailbag and answer some of your questions. Remember to send in your questions for our weekly call by e-mail to pinstripealleyblog [at] gmail [dot] com.
The Idiot that said, “Harper is coming” asks: If the Yankees don’t know what they’re going to get out of Aaron Judge’s arm the rest of the season – Why didn’t they give him some work at 1B while he was on IL? Even if they avoided him throwing, he could have practiced fielding, positioning, footwork,
and receiving throws. And if his throwing is going to be impeded through the remainder of this season, shouldn’t we expect off season surgery and a 2026 season mostly at DH as well?
I’m not sure what to make of what we’ve learned about Aaron Judge’s recovery so far — this has been one of the rare instances where we got conflicting information out of the team and player, with Aaron Boone saying in an interview that he thought we wouldn’t see Judge “back to throwing like he normally does at any point this year,” only for Judge to come out and say that he “didn’t know why [Boone] said that, he hasn’t seen me throw for the past two weeks.” Boone then walked his comments back shortly after Judge’s refute, clarifying that he didn’t know if Judge would be throwing like himself immediately once he returns to the field, but it’s clear that there’s concern over if or when Judge will take the field again this year.
Judge is the type of player to try his best to stay available and play through an injury, even if it might be more detrimental long-term to do so, so I could see this as him pushing back from the more cautious pace that the team may want to set for him, but given the Yankees’ history of misunderstanding their players’ injuries lately this may instead be a case of Judge understanding his body better than the team and feeling confident. Either way, it feels like neither side has considered a position change for the remainder of the year as they’ve focused on finding out just how feasible his return to the outfield may be, and conversation around possibly moving Judge out of right field should be saved for the offseason.
As for whether surgery will be needed, that entirely depends on whether this remains a strain in his elbow or develops into a tear. If it becomes the latter, then the big name comparison we have is Bryce Harper’s recovery from Tommy John surgery in 2022, though the circumstances are a little different. Harper injured himself way back in April of 2022 and played out the remainder of that season as the DH before offseason Tommy John surgery, but managed to return just 160 days later in May and by late July was splitting time between DH and first base. If Judge has avoided the tear and continues to do so while DHing for this season then there’s little concern, but even if offseason surgery is necessary it may not be as disastrous as you may fear. For now, we can only wait and see which camp will win out with Judge’s prognosis.
Jmack175 asks: Lots of folks are already penciling in Belli as next year’s CF/1st baseman, but don’t realize he’s a Boras client. As the cheaper and even more versatile option to Tucker, what do you think a realistic contract looks like for him barring any major setbacks or injuries the rest of the way, and at what point would you bow out?
Bellinger’s got $25 million in a player opt-out sitting on the table for next season, the final year of a three-year, $80 million pact he signed with the Cubs for 2024 that gave him opt-outs after each year. He opted into his contract for this season, prompting his trade to New York, but after re-establishing himself as a quality outfielder with the Bombers it does appear likely that Scott Boras will get his client back onto the open market. It was a tough sell for Bellinger his last time there, as his strong 2023 in Chicago couldn’t outweigh the terrible last two years he spent with the Dodgers. Now he’s far removed from that stretch and proven that he’s a reliable floor raiser, but he’s also over 30 years old entering this foray into free agency.
I think a four-year deal will be something that teams offer him as a start while he looks for a longer-term deal, and could push teams to provide a fifth year as a compromise. The question becomes whether he could meet or push past a $30 million salary, and while I think the Yankees could agree to a deal at the former I’m not sure how far they’ll go with the latter. I’d prefer a deal that stays on that shorter range even if it drives the price up towards $35 million per year so the Yankees aren’t stuck in another DJ LeMahieu situation where their roster becomes compromised down the road just to fiddle with luxury tax numbers, but who knows if they’ve learned their lesson there yet.
torturedsoulv1 asks: Assuming the Yankees make the playoffs. Do you go with three starters or four? Fried, Rodon, Warren? Or does Gil make it also? Or someone I’m not listing?
If the Yankees wind up a Wild Card this year they’ll absolutely need to open with four starters, as the Wild Card Round opens on Sep. 30th and could see them play three straight games rolling right over to the start of the ALDS on Oct. 4th, with the AL getting the immediate back-to-back game on the 5th. Even if they don’t end up playing in the first round and jump straight into the ALDS, they’d likely run a four-man rotation with one less day off than they had in 2024 to maneuver with. As for who makes the rotation, Fried and Rodón are locks with two spots remaining between Will Warren, Cam Schlittler, and Luis Gil. Given Gil’s late return and Schlittler and Warren’s lack of experience, it truly could come down to whichever of them has the hottest streak as September closes out.
