Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight standouts Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown will clash TONIGHT (Sat., Nov. 8, 2025) inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 111.
This is a good matchup — if not main event — marred by unfortunate circumstance. Namely, Bonfim robbed Stephen Thompson in his last appearance, so the 28-year-old grappler probably shouldn’t be rewarded with a high-profile slot. Still, the Brazilian is an exciting finisher with a unique set of skills, so the situation
could be a whole lot worse.
Standing opposite him is Brown, a long-time UFC Welterweight who flies under the radar a bit, when in fact, Brown is on a rather good recent run. In the last five years, Brown has only been defeated by an overweight Bryan Battle in a terrible judges’ decision, current division champion, Jack Della Maddalena, and Vicente Luque at the height of his powers — not bad!
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Bonfim vs. Brown Betting Odds
- Gabriel Bonfim victory: -175
- Gabriel Bonfim via TKO/KO/DQ: +350
- Gabriel Bonfim via submission: +165
- Gabriel Bonfim via decision: +500
- Randy Brown victory: +145
- Randy Brown via TKO/KO/DQ: +330
- Randy Brown via submission: +1600
- Randy Brown via decision: +500
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Bonfim Wins
Bonfim has solid Muay Thai skills but really excels on the canvas. The jiu-jitsu black belt has finished 13 of his opponents via tapout, and he has better takedown chains than the average Brazilian jiujitsu player as well. Against a boxer in Brown, there’s little doubt that Bonfim will look to take this fight to the canvas.
Given Brown’s height and reach advantages — physical edges that often belong to Bonfim — the Brazilian will have to adjust his strategy a bit. “Marretinha” likes to use his size to wrestle at the waist (see above), but that grows more difficult against lankier opponents like Brown, who seem to always keep a foot beneath them despite attempts to lift. Bonfim can’t just abandon his best takedowns, but he should be prepared to wrestle below the waist as well.
Bonfim’s ability to kick will be important here as well. He has to answer Brown’s jab with hard calf kicks to limit that weapon and help himself find a path inside. In addition, the grappler should always be blasting kicks, as many fighters will immediately return fire with kicks of their own — a potential path toward an easy takedown.
How Brown Wins
Unlike most mixed martial arts (MMA) fighters, Brown makes good use of his lanky build with straight punches and smart boxing. He’s got a sharp jab and uses it to line up his right hand, which has been landing with more snap in recent years. He’s not historically known as a huge puncher, but two real-deal knockout wins in his last four bouts are helping change that reputation.
Brown has the difficult task of employing his standup advantage without getting taken down. Obviously, he’ll want to work behind the jab, but he can’t get predictable and give Bonfim easy access to his hips. Feints, double jabs, body jabs, and the occasional right hand to the chest at distance will help Bonfim off the takedown.
Perhaps the most important advantage here isn’t actually a skill: Brown is the better conditioned athlete. Twice now, we’ve seen Bonfim start fights strong and then fade down the stretch, struggling to employ his jiu-jitsu as a result. To deplete the gas tank, Brown has to push the pace and put Bonfim on his back foot. He still has to stay behind the jab while doing so, but going after Bonfim will wear him down — shared opponent Nicholas Dalby proved it.
Even if Brown is taken down early and put in bad spots, just surviving into the later rounds could create an avenue for a comeback.
Bonfim vs. Brown Prediction
I am unsold on Bonfim as a contender. He didn’t look the part versus an older “Wonderboy,” and the Dalby defeat was only two years ago. He’s yet to show that his cardio has improved significantly, yet he’s being pushed into a five-round fight against a bigger man with better conditioning.
Brown, conversely, is as battle-tested as they come, and he’s only lost to elite fighters in recent years (I do not recognize the Bryan Battle decision, and Battle was/is damn good in his own right). I see no reason to believe he cannot survive for a round or two on the ground if need be — Ange Loosa did! — and once Bonfim starts huffing, this fight is over.
Prediction: Brown via knockout
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