For 10 games, Duke looked the part of a top-tier National Championship contender. Over the last four games, the Blue Devils have looked more like a team whose flaws might keep them from such lofty expectations.
Who is Duke really?
The Blue Devils’ next big test—at Louisville Tuesday night—will go a long way towards establishing whether the subpar performances over the last four games were merely a blip or a major warning sign. But it’s worth remembering that Tuesday’s result alone won’t answer that all
important question. In fact, almost all Duke teams seem to go through a mid-season swoon, regardless of their eventual success in March. It very well might be the case that this downturn just started in mid-December rather than January this season.
Last season’s Blue Devils were an exception to this pattern, which is unsurprising given their historic regular season success. But both of Jon Scheyer’s first two teams had a concerning mid-season period. In 2024, Duke went 4-2 over a stretch entering early February, with losses to Pittsburgh and North Carolina and surprisingly close victories over Georgia Tech and Clemson. In 2022, there was a similar 6-3 stretch that included a blowout loss at Miami and nail-biting home wins against Wake Forest and Notre Dame.
Even Mike Krzyzewski’s best teams fell victim to the mid-season blues. His final squad didn’t look destined for a Final Four when they lost at home to Miami and at a bad Florida State team in January. Before Grayson Allen’s senior year came a rim away from a Final Four, the 2018 team lost 3 of 4 over a late-January/early-February stretch. That team also lost its ACC opener on the road against a bad Boston College squad in December.
Perhaps most famously, the eventual 2015 national champions were embarrassed in back-to-back early January contests, losing by double digits at NC State and home against Miami. Those losses, though, proved to be the impetus that squad needed to find its defensive identity, and they didn’t lose to a non-Notre Dame opponent the rest of the season.
During each of those stretches, the media soured on Duke as a real national contender, and Blue Devil fans frantically asked whether their team would even make it past the NCAA tournament’s first weekend. Those talking points are already gaining steam despite Duke only having one loss, and will surely increase in volume if the Blue Devils fall on Tuesday night.
But history shows that these brief stretches of subpar play don’t define Duke’s success during March Madness, and can counterintuitively be the wakeup call needed for the team to evolve during the season. Cutting down the nets in April remains a marathon, one that can be won despite stumbling along the way.
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