LOUISVILLE NEEDS TO FORCE A COUPLE OF TURNOVERS
Eli Holstein is more than happy to give the ball away. He has thrown an interception in all three games this year and, just like he did against the Cards last year, he has turned it over at inopportune times. Louisville picked off two passes last weekend against a quarterback and team that had not had a turnover entering the game. Both interceptions stalled promising drives for Bowling Green and got the ball back to the offense to keep the Cards in control.
Pitt has given up a good amount of sacks this season as well, and Louisville’s pass rush has an opportunity to get back into form this weekend. That pressure can lead to forced fumbles or rushing Holstein into reckless throws. It’s been a while since I’ve said this about a player but Holstein doesn’t value the football and the Cards need to make plays this weekend to take advantage of that fact.
PITT CAN CAUSE HAVOC ON DEFENSE WITHOUT BRINGING PRESSURE
Pitt is one of the best teams in the country at getting to the quarterback as well as getting tackles for loss against the run. Even Pitt’s terrible team in 2023 finished in the top 30 in both categories. This year, they are ranked first in sacks per game and second in tackles for loss per game, and their linebackers are causing the most havoc on their defense.
The issue for the Cards is that the offensive line has been abysmal so far. Louisville is ranked 115th in run blocking grade via PFF and their pass blocking gread is just average at 60th. Pitt will take full advantage of the poor offensive line play but what worries me is the fact that the Cards can’t run the ball as well as they should which will put them into long third down situations where Pitt thrives. Pitt will have no issue rushing four players in those situations which is bad news for the Cards.
UofL NEEDS TO ATTACK PITT’S CORNERBACKS
West Virginia was able to move the ball with their running game but when they needed to put the ball in the air, they went after Pitt’s corners with some success. Pitt’s pass rush is ranked third via PFF but their coverage grade is 70th. Those rankings show up on film as teams challenge the outside coverage and find some wins. The Panthers are allowing chunk plays in the passing game, and they are allowing opposing quarterbacks to be much more effecient than they would like to be.
One sign that your players aren’t meeting expectations is a change in the depth chart. True freshman, Shawn Lee was moved up the depth chart into an “or” spot with Tamon Lynum who is a returning contributor. Lee is undersized at 5-10/180 but the coaches see somthing in him if they’re willing to play him as a true freshman.
SPECIAL TEAMS WILL BE A FACTOR IN THE OUTCOME
Louisville has been outstanding on special teams so far this season and Jeff Brohm has acknowledged how important that has been through three games. That makes me feel confiedent in the fact that they will lean even more into that success when needed. Returns are one thing but I think that we all remember the blocked field goals from last season and there is always the potential that the staff could utilize a fake on offense or pull something out of their bag for a block on a punt.
The Panthers aren’t slacking on special teams, either. Desmond Reid returned the first punt of the season for a touchdown and they rank in the top 25 in both kick and punt return average on the year. Kenny Johnson is averaging 32 yards per kick return and he’s looked good doing so. He has a knack for finding space as a returner and his long stride gets him down the field with ease. While he doesn’t have the elite breakaway speed that some have, he can set up the offense in a good position to get an easy score.
