Virginia men’s basketball closed out its regular season with a win over Virginia Tech on Saturday afternoon, finishing with a record of 27-4 overall and 15-3 in the ACC in year one under Ryan Odom. The Cavaliers now head into the postseason as the 2-seed for the ACC Tournament with eyes firmly set on no worse than a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
With UVA’s ACC quarterfinal matchup just a few days away and Selection Sunday quickly approaching, we’re here to break down the March Madness picture for
the Cavaliers. What are Virginia’s odds in the ACC and NCAA Tournaments? Where do the Cavaliers sit in the various relevant metrics and rankings? What NCAA Tournament seed line is most likely currently? Can Virginia improve its positioning via its performance in the ACC Tournament in Charlotte?
Virginia’s recent ACC Tournament history and 2026 odds
The ACC Tournament comes first, where the Cavaliers failed to win a game a season ago, losing as the 9-seed to 8-seed Georgia Tech by six. This time around, Virginia has a double bye, its first since being the 3-seed in 2024. That year, Virginia beat 11-seed Boston College in the quarterfinals before falling to the Cinderella 10-seed NC State, the eventual ACC tournament champions and national semifinalists.
This season, the Cavaliers earned the 2-seed for the first time since 2023, when they reached the ACC Tournament final and lost to the 4-seed, Duke. Their prior trip to the ACC title game came in 2018 as the 1-seed when the Cavaliers defeated 6-seed North Carolina to win the program’s third-ever ACC Tournament title.
Virginia holds the second-best odds to win this year’s ACC Tournament title at +700, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Only the top-seeded and top-ranked Duke Blue Devils have shorter odds at -310.
Virginia’s recent NCAA Tournament history and 2026 odds
UVA is seeking its first win in an NCAA Tournament game since winning the 2019 national title. Since then, the 2020 tournament was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic; the Cavaliers lost in the first round as a 4-seed to Ohio in 2021; they missed the 2022 tournament and then lost again as a 4-seed in 2023, that time to Furman; in 2024, Virginia, a 10-seed, was sent to the First Four in Dayton, and lost by 25 to Colorado State; and last season, the Cavaliers missed the tournament for the second time in four seasons.
Considering all that, a first-round win is the first hurdle to get over, clearly, but the Cavaliers will have loftier goals this season following an impressive 27-win regular season. Failing to advance to the second weekend and the Sweet 16 would be a disappointment, while any success beyond that would be an unequivocal success.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Cavaliers’ odds of advancing to the Final Four at +2,700. Meanwhile, Virginia’s odds to win the national title are set at +10,000.
Where does Virginia currently rank nationally?
The Cavaliers entered the final week of the regular season ranked No. 13 in the AP poll, and following wins over Wake Forest and Virginia Tech, they rose to No. 10 in Monday’s updated rankings.
When it comes to UVA’s resume heading into the ACC Tournament, the Cavaliers have a 6-3 record in Quad 1 games, a 9-1 record in Quad 2 games, and a perfect 12-0 record in Quad 3 and 4 games. That resume has the Cavaliers ranked 13th in the NCAA’s NET Rankings.
Another critical metric used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee, Wins Above Bubble (WAB), is a newer metric that measures a team’s performance against its schedule compared to what the average bubble team would accomplish with that schedule. Virginia’s 6.93 WAB ranks 10th nationally, notably ahead of the likes of Illinois, Purdue, Iowa State, Kansas, and Gonzaga, among others.
In a few of the notable metric rankings, UVA ranks 20th in KenPom, 18th in Bart Torvik’s T-Rank, and 20th in EvanMiya. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) has the Cavaliers in 23rd, while its strength of record metric has UVA in 10th.
There’s clearly a wide range from Virginia’s position in 10th in the WAB, AP poll, and ESPN’s strength of record to its spot outside the top-16 in the various other rankings. At the ACC Tournament, the Cavaliers have the chance to add a few final data points in their push for a potential 3-seed.
What NCAA Tournament seed line is most likely for Virginia?
Currently, the Cavaliers are in position for a 4-seed. That’s where the NCAA Tournament selection committee had them on Feb. 21, and the ‘Hoos went 4-1 since then, falling only to No. 1 Duke on the road.
BracketMatrix.com, an aggregator of a large variety of bracket projections, shows Virginia as a 4-seed on average across 77 different bracket projections. 15 of those brackets have the Cavaliers as a 3-seed, while only one has them as a 5-seed. The rest have Virginia on the 4-seed line.
Since being projected 16th overall and a 4-seed in the selection committee’s bracket preview, 13 of the top-16 teams have suffered at least one loss, with only Duke, Arizona, and Florida avoiding defeat. Seven of those teams lost at least two times in that span, including three that suffered three losses: Kansas, Purdue, and Iowa State.
Among the group with two-plus losses, the following teams, all of which were projected above Virginia in the Feb. 21 bracket preview, would likely be below Virginia if a new projection came out now: then-15th overall Vanderbilt, then-13th overall Texas Tech, then-10th overall Kansas, and then-8th overall Purdue. All four teams have lost at least twice since the committee’s preview, each including a home loss to an unranked team. Meanwhile, Virginia’s only loss in that span came on the road against the top-ranked team in the country.
If that is correct, Virginia would move up four spots to just above the cut line between a 3- and 4-seed in 12th overall. That is not to say that those teams can’t move back ahead of UVA depending on conference tournament results.
Beyond those four teams, there are also arguments to be made for the Cavaliers to potentially surpass the likes of Gonzaga, Nebraska, Illinois, or Iowa State, but those are fairly complex and by no means cut and dry. The successes of Alabama and St. John’s, among others, during conference tournaments are also worth monitoring for Virginia fans.
In short, it all comes down to what the committee prioritizes, and to some extent, how teams fare in their conference tournaments. None of it will come into full focus until the bracket is revealed on Sunday. For now, Virginia looks likely to receive a 4-seed, while a good ACC Tournament performance could very well prompt a rise to a 3-seed.
