The Premier League season starts Friday, August 21st with Arsenal hosting newly-promoted Coventry City. Naturally, that means it is time for predictions. Last season, I was the only TSF writer to predict that Arsenal would win the Premier League. Take that, Tony and Aidan.
All three of us correctly predicted that Burnley and Wolves would be relegated but none of us got West Ham. We did highlight that the Hammers would be in the relegation battle, so I’m giving half-credit. We also all nailed our “Surprise
Finisher” picks. I had Newcastle (derogatory) — they finished 12th. Aidan had Chelsea (derogatory) — they finished 10th. Tony had Manchester United (complimentary) — they finished 3rd.
Aaron
Champion: Arsenal
At the risk of tempting fate, I’m picking the Gunners to repeat as Premier League Champions, something the club haven’t managed since 1930. The other top clubs in the division are in flux — new managers, roster turnover, back in Europe — and the holders have added PL-proven quality to their side. The recent addition of Ezri Konsa makes me feel much better about William Saliba’s extended absence to start the season, but he’s still a big miss.
If anything keeps the Gunners from winning the title again, it’ll be injuries. And since we’ve seen them keep Arsenal from the title before, make sure you do whatever superstitious rituals you practice to help prevent that. Consider phoning your local guru / medicine man / shaman / wizard / whatever to help out.
Top Five: Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United
There really isn’t much separating Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester City. All three have talented rosters with new managers at the helm. I’m betting that Chelsea being out of Europe entirely will be enough to give them the edge, if they hold onto Enzo Fernandez. Look what Manchester United were able to do in the second half of the season playing once a week.
Both Xabi Alonso and Andoni Iraola are good coaches. I’m not sold on Enzo Maresca. Still, I think City will finish ahead of Manchester United because they’re a better, deeper team. United have to contend with Europe again this season, which will tire them out in the Premier League.
Relegated: Hull City, Coventry City, Ipswich Town
How boring of me to pick the three promoted sides to go right back down. Statistically, that’s the best bet. I don’t see good reasons to think any of those three sides
Arsenal POTY: Martin Ødegaard
The captain has a point to prove after injuries have hampered two straight seasons and kept him from his best. He played well at the World Cup and has looked even better in preseason. If he stays healthy, he’s going to have a big season. His injury troubles have been more “bad luck” than “chronic” so there isn’t much reason to think he’s any more likely than a random player to get hurt again, unless you think he has a predisposition to falling awkwardly on his shoulder, stepping badly for his knee, or getting his ankle stepped on.
Wild Card: Arsenal have five players score double-digit Premier League goals.
I’ve made a version of this prediction each season for the last three years. Run it back. I’m pot-committed at this point. Gimme Viktor Gyokeres, Kai Havertz, Martin Ødegaard, Bukayo Saka, and Christos Tzolis. Also, if this happens, Arsenal win the league going away.
Tony
Champion: Arsenal
Like Aaron, I hesitate to place Arsenal at the top of the league come its end – not because I don’t think they’ll win it, but because every season I’ve predicted Arsenal to win the title, they haven’t. The one season I didn’t? Last season.
Superstitions aside, it’s hard to imagine it will be anyone but the Gunners. Most of Arsenal’s traditional title rivals have brand new managers and a whole lot of question marks, while Mikel Arteta is the league’s longest tenured manager whose side just got the title monkey off their backs. Arsenal have risen from the ashes of their shambolic era to become the PL’s most stable, consistent club with a core of veterans who have been with the club for the last three seasons and now know what it takes to be champions.
Run it back.
Top Five: Arsenal, Chelsea, City, Liverpool, Manchester United
Behind Arsenal, I have a feeling Chelsea will use a schedule free from the burdens of European competition to climb into the top 4. If Xabi Alonso gets them up to speed, their lighter schedule gives them a big advantage. Liverpool under Adoni Iraola has the potential to go bang in either direction. I’ll be optimistic because he seems a solid manager and rounds out the top three with Basque coaches at the top.
Similarly, I think Spurs can make some noise if they don’t implode on themselves first. They have made major shakeups on the roster with a few expensive moves and critical departures. Manchester United still have questions about the balance in their midfield, but Carrick retained a lot of last season’s talent who will know his system.
Relegated: Hull City, Ipswich, Newcastle
I will level with you – there’s not a whole lot I know about most of the promoted sides. Of the three, I think Coventry have the best chance of being scrappy enough to survive. Newcastle are a club that just seem in utter disarray. Losing a swath of key players in back-to-back seasons while moving on to a manager with zero PL pedigree feels like a recipe for a drop back into the Championship as the Saudi sportswashing experiment has been a pretty big flop.
Arsenal POTY: Martin Ødegaard
The captain has come back into the fold and looks sharper than ever. If his injury woes are finally behind him, he has a chance to bounce back from two seasons of injury issues to lead the side with the confidence he found during the World Cup and was on full display against City in the Community Shield.
Wild Card: Myles Lewis-Skelly forces his way into the first XI by season’s end
This one is probably a bit of a reach, but MLS has been on a massive upward swing since the end of last season when he came into the midfield for Martin Zubimendi and added massive security in the middle of the park. His talent is undeniable, and he just seems to have that “it” factor about him that propels him to rise to the occasion. Bruno’s signing is a brilliant stroke of tactical smarts by Arteta, but I think Myles could manage to give the gaffer a selection headache when it’s all said and done.
Aidan
Champion: Arsenal
Top Five: Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United
Relegated: Hull City, Ipswich, Coventry City
Arsenal POTY: Martin Ødegaard
Wild Card: Christos Tzolis comes third in the Arsenal.com player of the season award.
I think Arsenal are going to win the league but I am not as confident as some. If things break Arsenal’s way in terms of fitness to key players — and we’re already going to be short William Saliba — it could be comfortable. But one reason why I feel hesitant is a lack of surety about our opponents. Iraola is a brilliant manager but can he scale up to Liverpool? Will playing once a week allow Alonso and Chelsea to thrive as Manchester United did last year? What’s City’s midfield going to look like post-Rodri? All of these are unanswerable right now, and the one answerable truth is that Arsenal are very good but will be short Saliba and are still relying on the same attack as last year, minus Leandro Trossard and plus Christos Tzolis (who by the way looks like a smart buy). The smart money is on Arsenal with all of the unknowns, but there are some unknowns about Arsenal too: how does Bruno allow for the evolution of Arsenal’s style of play? How do Arsenal replace Saliba, especially his deep-lying playmaking?
The top 5 speaks for itself: I think Chelsea will be much better and they play once a week. I think Villa, having lost most of their midfield, will fall away slightly. The rest of the top 5 is fairly explanatory, but I’ve gone conservatively in how I’ve chosen them. I think Iraola is the best manager among the new hires but how he scales up to Liverpool will determine whether they mount a title charge or are in the Champions League places. Chelsea are a head basket case but Alonso is a good coach and has made some savvy purchases. As long as City have Haaland they’ll be a good side, whereas Carrick and Manchester United have to contend playing more than 40 games.
Share your predictions for this season in the comments! Feel free to omit the Wild Card if you’re not feeling particularly Wild. For copy-paste ease:
Champion:
Top Five:
Relegated:
Arsenal POTY:
Wild Card:
