It seems like it’s been three consecutive years now where the Phillies’ season has ended in disappointment and the prevailing feeling in the moment is that the team needs to shake up some of its roster to be successful going forward. The team has sort of stubbornly refused to do that year in and year out, but this offseason seems to have finally shaken things up for this team that’s very clearly at the tail end of a contention window. Do these Phillies have what it takes to be competitive in a tough
NL East and compete for the World Series?
They finally cut ties with Nick Castellanos, eating the $20 million owed to him this season. They made a bid for Bo Bichette before he signed with the Mets. Their only other major moves were re-signing Kyle Schwarber (5 years, $150 million), J.T. Realmuto (3 years, $45 million), Adolis Garcia (1 year, $10 million) and relievers Brad Keller (2/$22 million) and Zach Pop. The Bichette move would’ve been a big enough shakeup, but without him, it feels like tinkering.
That might be okay, as the Phillies still do have a talented core. Maybe not as talented as previous years, but one that’s good enough to contend. In October, team president Dave Dombrowski remarked,
He’s still a quality player. He’s still an All-Star caliber player. He didn’t have an elite season like he has had in the past. And I guess we only find out if becomes elite or he continues to be good
Harper’s age-33 season is off to a rough start: .139/.205/.333 in his first 39 plate appearances. The Phillies’ 30-year old average age for their lineup is second-highest in MLB behind only the Dodgers (31.2). But Harper has been the worst of their over-30s to this point. The rest of the group has looked fine to good:
Kyle Schwarber (33) — 3 HR, .897 OPS (41 PA)
Adolis Garcia (33) — 2 HR, .835 OPS (36 PA)
Trea Turner (33) — 0 HR, .736 OPS (41 PA)
J.T. Realmuto (35) — 1 HR, .721 OPS (28 PA)
Harper plus the rest of the lineup (Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh, Carl Crawford’s son Justin Crawford, and Alec Bohm) are all sub-average hitters right now.
The Phillies have the fourth-most valuable pitching staff here in the early going, though, and that’s going to be the thing that carries them. According to FanGraphs, they’ve been the most valuable pitching staff since 2022, amassing +94.5 fWAR compared to the rest of the sport. The Dodgers are #2 at +80.4 fWAR, so, it’s a big gap.
The Giants are still trying to get things going on offense, but they’ll need their pitching to hold the line until then. That necessity seems like a stretch, though, as their value is middle of the pack (+0.8 fWAR – 15th in MLB) with some troubling peripherals. Their 93.9 mph average fastball velocity is 27th in MLB and their home run to fly ball rate of 13.5% is 24th. They’re also 15th in K/9 (9.1). The Giants will either need to get more groundballs or more swing and miss because a home run rate like that in Oracle Park is catastrophic.
And, of course, they’re tired for the fewest runs scored in the sport (26 — tied with the Reds). Their team value of -0.4 fWAR is ahead of only the Rockies (-0.8). The ABS Challenge system is supposed to increase walk rates and yet the Giants’ 7.4% is 29th, ahead of only the Rockies. Their 23.5% strikeout rate is 17th. That strikeout rate is right in line with the team’s performance from 2022-2025. What’s different is the walk rate. The Giants have an 8.9% walk rate across 2022-2025, which is 6th in MLB. Right now, the Phillies are striking out 10.87 per 9 innings (4th in MLB) and walking just 2.52 (also 4th). So, it’s going to be a tough matchup, unless the hitters break out or the Phils’ pitching has a bad series.
Series overview
Who: San Francisco Giants (3-7) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (5-4)
Where: Oracle Park | San Francisco, CA
When: Monday & Tuesday at 6:45pm PT, Wednesday at 12:45pm PT
National broadcasts: None.
Projected starters
Monday: Andrew Painter (RHP 1-0, 1.69) vs. Adrian Houser (RHP 0-1, 1.69 ERA)
Tuesday: Cristopher Sanchez (LHP 1-0, 0.79 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (LHP 1-1, 3.38 ERA)
Wednesday: Aaron Nola (RHP 1-0, 3.18 ERA) vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP 0-2, 7.00 ERA)
Players to watch
Phillies
Andrew Painter: The Phillies’ top pitching prospect was set to make his debut for them two years ago, but injuries pushed it all the way back to last week, when he struck out 8 in 5.1 innings against the Nationals. I suppose the opponent matters a great deal. The 23-year old threw six different pitches at them: a 96.7 mph four-seamer, a slider, curve, changeup, sinker, and sweeper.
Kyle Schwarber: Look, this is pretty obvious, and you don’t need me telling you to keep an eye on him, but just to reiterate: in 22 career games at Oracle, he’s hitting .244/.347/.561 with 7 home runs.
Bryson Stott: The second baseman didn’t develop into the hitting-defense force the Phillies had hoped, but he’s still been a valuable player with the glove. In 11 games at Oracle Park against the Giants, though, he’s hit! He has a triple slash of .300/.347/.475 in 45 plate appearances. That includes a couple of homers.
Giants
Rafael Devers: He has a career .805 OPS in April (831 PA), so, I expect him to get it going any day now. The Giants need him as a threat if the lineup is to have any hope.
Tyler Mahle: Mahle is one of the arms fueling the staff’s high HR/FB ratio because he’s a flyball pitcher. Thankfully? the Phillies’ lineup is in the bottom third of the sport in terms of flyball rate. He hasn’t faced the Phillies since 2021 when he was with the Reds (7 shutout innings, 7 strikeouts, 0 walks) — a completely different pitcher then.
Harrison Bader: He popped in his stint with the Phillies last season (.824 OPS in 50 games) following a trade from the Twins. Not that he has their secrets, but it will be worth watching him to see if he’s interested in revenge or showing them that they should regret declining his option.
Tony Vitello watch
He had his first ejection on Sunday over a correct call by the umpire (Jerar Encarnacion was called out for interference running down the first base line). We haven’t seen him get really creative with the roster or substitutions, but let’s see if he, like, forfeits the designated hitter to gain an advantage late in a game. I would hope things get weird in the event the Giants lose the first two games of this series.
Prediction time
The Phillies are coming off a trip to Coors Field while the Giants are coming off an absolute pasting by the New York Mets in Oracle Park. In theory, the Phillies’ comedown from playing a Mile High might be enough of an equalizer to give the Giants a great shot at a series win. On the other hand, the Giants are just 1-6 at home. That’s a pretty formidable pitching matchup and the Giants’ offense needs a couple of weeks of “good” (or at least “good enough”) to warrant any optimism. It’s difficult to envision the Giants winning this series, but they’ll win a game, sure.
