Last weekend’s loss to Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium, whilst hardly unexpected, put Everton into the bottom half of the table, and served to halt the team’s two-game unbeaten mini-revival. It was
another schizophrenic performance: unexpectedly good in the first half, followed by the visitors shipping two avoidable goals in rapid succession, which effectively killed the game off as a contest.
David Moyes acknowledged as much, in managing the game in a manner which – in theory – ensured that the club’s goal difference did not take too much of a beating from then on, a strategy which sailed close to the wind as the hosts threatened to run amok in the later stages — Erling Haaland somehow failing to score a hattrick. The timing of Everton’s substitutions left much to be desired, with key players in Iliman Ndiaye and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall only removed in the 86th minute.
The Toffees have an intriguing set of fixtures before the campaign is halted for yet another international break, travelling to meet high-flying Premier League newcomers Sunderland on the Monday after next, followed by a home match against former Blues boss Marco Silva’s struggling Fulham. However, first up they face Thomas Frank’s reinvigorated Tottenham Hotspur, at Hill Dickinson Stadium, on Sunday.
Form
The North Londoners endured a mixed, bizarre season last time out. Ange Postecoglou brought the club its first silverware in 17 years, but also led them to a shocking 17th-place league finish. Winning the Europa League against Manchester United, in what was a drab final, brought Champions League football this term, but that was not to save the Australian, who was dismissed early in the summer. His replacement, Frank, has been much-admired for the work he’s carried out at Brentford, for some time, and the club opted to go for the Dane, ahead of other options, such as Bournemouth’s Andoni Iraola.
Spurs had spent quite heavily – primarily on youngsters – during the previous summer, but changed tack somewhat in preparation for the new campaign. A total of €210.6m was invested into the squad, with loans for forward Mathys Tel and defender Kevin Danso made permanent (€35m and €25m, respectively), along with the headline acquisition of one-time Everton target Mohammed Kudus from city rivals, West Ham United, for €65m. Defensive midfielder João Palhinha joined on loan from Bayern Munich, along with further boosts to the attack in the form of RB Leipzig’s Xavi Simons (€65m) and striker Randal Kolo Muani, on loan from PSG.
A major departure saw star man Heung-min Son end his time at the club after ten stellar years, the South Korean heading to US outfit LAFC for €22m, along with midfield stalwart Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, who was sold to Marseille after spending last season on loan at the French giants. The campaign kicked off with a creditable effort in the UEFA Super Cup, which saw the English side lose to PSG on penalties, and a pair of league victories over Burnley and Manchester United, before losing to Bournemouth in what was an impotent effort.
Uneven performances at home have been a theme so far this term, with that opening day victory over the newly-promoted Clarets bringing their sole win, against defeats to Aston Villa and the Cherries, and a draw with bottom club Wolves. On the road, they’ve fared well, taking maximum points on three occasions, as well as drawing at Brighton. Their recent form has not been good, however, struggling in a 2-1 win over Leeds United, losing to Villa and being held 2-2 by Bodø/Glimt in the UCL. In midweek, they looked terribly open in somehow escaping with a 0-0 against Monaco, in Europe. They sit in seventh spot in the league table, as of Saturday evening.
Style of Play
Frank is very far from his predecessor, in terms of the way he manages games. Pragmatic, but aggressive, the Dane started the campaign in a 4-3-3 formation, before switching to the similar 4-2-3-1 last month. Spurs command a 55.3% share of possession, and a pass completion percentage of 84.8 — ranking seventh in the division in both categories. They go direct at times, with 10.2% of their passes being long, and attack the wide areas, with a focus on the left flank, though tend to be balanced on the road. They trail only Nottingham Forest in terms of the number of crosses they attempt per game (23).
The visitors’ 10.9 efforts on goal per 90 minutes ranks a lowly 13th – below Everton – which is surprising, given the wealth of attacking talent in their squad. They’ve scored 14 goals — massively overperforming an xG of 8.2, a level of finishing which appears unsustainable. Most of the team’s goals have come from open play. Defensively, the Londoners have been quite open, allowing 12 efforts on their goal per 90, and they’ve conceded just seven from an xGA of 9.0 — again, an overperformance, though not so drastic. They’ve only been beaten once from set-pieces this term, with the rest coming from general play.
Team Assessment
Guglielmo Vicario will guard the visitors’ goal. The 29-year-old has performed well over the past year, ranking in the 88th percentile in terms of shot-shopping, but though tall, he often fails to dominate his six-yard box. With Cristian Romero missing today, Micky van de Ven will be partnered by Danso; the Dutchman is a quality defender, who’s been dogged with injuries, but has been fit this season and his pace is key to the Spurs defence. On the right, Pedro Porro offers an attacking threat, completing 0.99 crosses into the box and 1.69 key passes per 90. At left back, the right-footed Djed Spence will cover for the injured Destiny Udogie.
Palhinha anchors the midfield, alongside the more progressive Rodrigo Bentancur. The former standout at Fulham leads the team by a country mile, with a combined 6.12 tackles and interceptions per 90; he wins an impressive 70.4% of his challenges against dribbling opponents. Bentancur is also active, registering team-highs in both blocked passes (1.27) and ball recoveries (5.82) per 90. In front of those two will be either Simons, who has yet to show his undoubted quality, or the teenage Lucas Bergvall. The former looks to be the more natural in an advanced position, but the latter is hard-working.
On the right flank will be Kudus, the team’s standout performer so far. The former Hammers man is rapid, skilful and dangerous, and leads the visitors in key passes (1.77), attempted dribbles (8.23, with 46.2% successful), shot-creating actions (3.31) and progressive passes received (8.86) per 90. Brennan Johnson scored in the team’s two opening league games, and fired eleven last term, but Wilson Odobert has started the last three games on the left. With Dominic Solanke still sidelined, Blues favourite Richarlison has been alternating up top with Tel. The Brazilian needs only 20 league minutes to eclipse last season’s disappointing total.
Prediction
Spurs are – to coin an overused phrase – a team in transition, much like today’s hosts. There’s been a significant overhaul in personnel, and a major reset in the dugout, so it’s hardly unexpected that performances in the early part of the season have been uneven. Injuries have hit hard – just like last term – with nine first teamers currently out, including players such as James Maddison, Romero, Dejan Kulusevski, Solanke, Udogie, Yves Bissouma, Ben Davies and Radu Drăgușin — all of whom played more than 1,200 league minutes last term. After almost two seasons of playing in Postecoglou’s high-line, super attacking system, there’s been a shift to a more standard approach, under Frank.
Moyes has far fewer problems, with Jack Grealish again available, after missing out last time against City, his parent club. Only Jarrad Branthwaite is unavailable to the Blues boss, after the star defender suffered a frustrating setback at the weekend, necessitating surgery on an ongoing hamstring problem, which will certainly see his return further delayed for a few months — at least. Although the decision to go with Jake O’Brien at right back this season is looking more than questionable, it’s near certain that the big Irishman will again be played out of position, with Michael Keane once more fielded alongside James Tarkowski in the centre.
The defence has been breached in each of the last five outings. Only Villa – who had yet to score at the time they arrived at Hill Dickinson – have been shut out since the Toffees shipped two sloppy goals in what was an otherwise impressive win away at Wolves in August. Brighton missed some big chances, in somehow failing to score a week earlier, so it’s fair to say Everton have missed Branthwaite’s presence. Without him, the backline is lacking agility and pace – is pedestrian even – and that could be addressed by moving O’Brien inside, and James Garner to right back.
This would allow Dewsbury-Hall to be moved back into midfield, where he may be more impactful. Playing higher up, mostly facing play, he often struggles to get on the ball, and offers little presence in support of the striker. Personally, I think Carlos Alcaraz is the better fit, and with him playing off Beto, and the former Chelsea man linking play from a deeper position, this could give the team more in attack from central areas. However, I am sure that the only change we’ll see this afternoon is Grealish replacing the Argentinian, who of course is not a winger. Hopefully we will see more of Merlin Röhl, who again looked bright in a cameo against City.
Today’s game pits a side who’ve not yet lost on their travels, against a team still unconquered on home turf, so what will we see play out? Spurs played a tough game in the south of France on Wednesday, which should work to Everton’s benefit. The Londoners were cut open repeatedly by Monaco, who failed to convert their dominance into goals, but today’s hosts should draw some encouragement from that. Good movement and sharp, quick passing could bring dividends, but the two main problems remain for the Toffees: a lack of genuine wide support from the fullbacks, and a slow backline which leaves too much space for the midfield to cover should the team look to press the opposition. Unless changes are made, this will continue to be the case until the transfer window opens again, in January.
Prediction: Everton 1-1 Tottenham
Statistics provided courtesy of fbref.com, transfermarkt.com and whoscored.com
