Let’s get this out of the way first: Georgia is beatable.
They do happen to be the best team in the country and playing at the highest level the sport has seen over the past two weeks. The Bulldogs have taken a page from Kirby Smart’s old boss Nick Saban by concocting a good-old-fashioned “crock potting” of their opponents; wherein they jump out to a lead early and then just slowly, slowly, slowly choke away any hope of a win by running the ball and playing elite defense.
It sucks to watch and it sucks to happen
to your favorite team but it’s effective.
Missouri’s win against Texas A&M? Classic crock potting.
But for Georgia to kick off this run of transcendent play they had to lose first. And they did so against a not very good Auburn team, at home in Athens, GA. So what the heck happened there?
Here are the notes from a quick scrub through of the game on my end:
- Running back Nate Frazier barely played. He was injured and only carried the ball 9 times for 19 yards.
- Georgia had a combined 113 rushing yards on the ground, their lowest output of the season.
- Quarterback Gunner Stockton attempted 39 passes counting the 2 sacks he took, a season high number of passes.
- 2 turnovers for Auburn, 0 for Georgia.
- Auburn ran 74 plays, 46 of which were runs. They weren’t very efficienct nor explosive but it helped maintain possession and run out time.
- Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown ran 26 times for 115 yards.
It’s not complicated. Run the ball, protect the ball, shut down the Georgia ground game, force Gunner Stockton to throw, and then capitalize on two turnovers while giving up zero. And then you’ll have the chance to nail a 34-yard field goal to win by 3 as time expires.
Does that sound like the way Missouri likes to play? Yes it does! Does that sound like the way Missouri can play on Saturday? Less so!
But college football is funky. Georgia has shot the lights out the last two games because they were scorned by the loss and took it out on their hated, upstart rival in Florida, and then were doubly super motivated to wipe out the team that eliminated them from the Playoff last year.
And here comes little ol’ Mizzou. Fresh off of a loss. Only a CFP number next to their name.
I’m sure the Kirby Smart disrespect machine will be running overtime to get his guys focused, but the only other thing I can think of here that Mizzou can capitalize on to beat these guys is to be unassuming and massive underdogs.
A 13.5 point spread in favor of Georgia seems pretty underdog-ish to me.
Let’s break it down.
When Missouri Has the Ball
Let’s make this quick: Georgia is the #1 defense in the country according to SP+. There’s not a single thing they are bad at other than defensive line havoc rate which is more of a product of their defensive scheme. They shut down efficiency plays and explosive plays. They create havoc and turnovers. They are the best defense in the country. So the goals for Mizzou stay the same: do what you do well and hope it’s enough.
Generate Explosives
Missouri will need at least 8 explosive plays generated against the 43rd best defense against explosive plays. This is the smallest crack in the armor to exploit: if they do, game on. If they can’t do this, there’s no chance.
Convert Third Downs
Missouri’s defense will be getting dragged up and down the field so maintaining possession and giving them a break will be paramount. Mizzou has outright stunk at this the past two weeks (and, arguably, the season) but it’s a necessity. Let’s go at least 40% on 3rd-downs this week.
Finish Your Dang Drives
If Missouri is ripping off explosive plays there’s a good chance on ends in a touchdown and 7 points for that scoring opportunity. Otherwise, they’ll have to figure out how to operate well inside the opponent’s 40 against a defense that gives up 3.7 points per scoring opportunity. Can we get at least 4 points per scoring opportunity. I hope so!
When Georgia Has the Ball
It’s more of the same on the other side of the ball. Georgia’s offense ranks 4th overall, 6th in rushing, and 9th in passing. They are the #1 offense in standard downs, 13th in passing downs, and 6th at converting 3rd-downs. There’s just no way Mizzou can play straight defense and hope to beat these guys. So…
HAVOC!
Blitz your ass off. Get funky with down lineman counts. Drop 9 in coverage, and then on the next play, do a zero blitz. Do things you’ve never done before. If Mizzou wants to stop these guys it’s going to have be confusing and force a seasoned quarterback to make bad mistakes and confusing offensive line assignments. We’ll have to see at least a 25% havoc rate at the end of the game.
Turn Them Over!
It has to happen. Mizzou has been much better at this aspect of defense this year and it must continue. +2 at a minimum here.
Conclusion
I don’t have high hopes for this game but there is a path to victory. A small one. Super narrow. No mistakes. Perfect ball. But it can be done.
If the Tigers do pull this off it gives them an equally narrow path to the Playoff. If not, then Mizzou will be playing to build towards a potentially awesome run next year.
Let’s all channel our inner 2013 selves and go beat Georgia at home!
