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Washington Post (paywall)
Commanders have a rest advantage vs. Raiders. Just how important is that?
Despite the positive disparity this week, the Commanders’ schedule this season ranks 30th in net rest edge, with a combined 13 fewer rest days than their opponents. That number is skewed, in large part, by the fact that they play on regular rest against three teams coming off byes: Chicago (Week 6), Seattle (Week 9) and the New York Giants (Week 15). The Raiders, for what it’s worth, rank last in net rest edge.
Sharp uses terms such as fairness and equity because he said his
data shows that, over the past decade, road teams on short weeks have fared worse against the spread, particularly late in the season. (It is unclear whether or how oddsmakers might be factoring in the idea of rest advantage, which theoretically could alter betting lines.)
There is also no clear correlation between rest advantage and winning, a Washington Post analysis found. Since 2010, there have been nearly 1,000 regular season games in which a team had a rest advantage of between one and four days compared with its opponent, according to team schedules archived on Sports-Reference.com. However, the team with the extra time to prepare lost those games 50.3 percent of the time, indicating it did not substantially affect the outcomes.
NFL senior director of football data and analytics Mike Lopez and senior manager of football data and analytics Tom Bliss reached a similar conclusion in a study published last fall — and cited a change in the league’s collective bargaining agreement with the NFL Players Association that imposes strict limits on practicing after early games.
Teams that play on Thursday, for instance, are required by the CBA to give their players the next three days off, as the Commanders did last week.
A to Z Sports
John Bates and Noah Brown are both OUT on Sunday
Losing your starting quarterback for a game isn’t ideal, and losing two big pieces on offense just makes it worse, but that’s what the Commanders will have to deal with on Sunday with tight end John Bates and wide receiver Noah Brown officially out.
Bates has been one of the best blocking tight ends in the league, and he is needed in a big way with the offensive line struggling on the right side. The Commanders already announced that Andrew Wylie would start over Nick Allegretti at right guard, but the rookie right tackle, Josh Conerly Jr, really needs those chips and double teams from Bates as well. The offense needs to establish the run as well, and that’s where Bates thrives, as he often opens up lanes and seals the edge for running backs.
Brown has been a solid wide receiver for the Commanders, and doesn’t have much production this season, but the offense has struggled to get the passing game going, and they can’t afford to lose a veteran piece like him. Surprisingly enough, Brown actually has the best separation score out of every Commander wide receiver right now, who are struggling to separate as a group. Mariota will have to feed Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, and Deebo Samuel on Sunday for the Commanders to have a chance.
A to Z Sports
Andrew Wylie starting at RG
The Commanders’ offensive line as a whole improved with the additions of Laremy Tunsil and Josh Conerly Jr, which helped move Brandon Coleman to left guard and Nick Allegretti to right guard, but they still have yet to mesh well as a unit, and something needed to change. The team is sticking with rookie right tackle Conerly Jr, but they are helping him out in a big way by starting Andrew Wylie at right guard over Nick Allegretti, who has struggled massively.
Allegretti and Conerly Jr. have really struggled on the right side of the line, and they’ve allowed 17 pressures and five sacks combined already this season. The team wants to see Conerly Jr. stick it out through a tough start against the best pass rushers in the league, including Maxx Crosby coming up, but starting Wylie at right guard helps give the rookie some help on his inside from a player who started at right tackle last year.
Wylie should’ve been the starter at right guard to start the season with Sam Cosmi still out, and he’s had experience at both guard and tackle on the right side. Last season, he didn’t allow a single sack as the starting right tackle, and he knows exactly how Conerly Jr. is going to be playing based on experience. This allows Wylie to better help Conerly Jr. in certain situations, while giving him advice and communicating on the fly against an All-Pro pass rusher.
Wylie just gives you the experience and reliability with a higher upside than Allegetti, even at guard. Marcus Mariota was announced as the starter for Sunday with Jayden Daniels out with his knee injury, and they need the best five up front on the line, and that’s exactly what they’re doing on Sunday. This could be the long-term move until Cosmi comes back if Wylie performs well, which I’m expecting.
Heavy.com
Hamilton Adds Veteran Presence Ahead of Raiders Clash
The Washington Commanders made a key roster adjustment, announcing the elevation of cornerback Antonio Hamilton Sr. from the practice squad. The move underscores Washington’s commitment to reinforcing its defensive backfield as they gear up for a crucial Week 3 home matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders.
The 31-year-old cornerback has played in high-pressure situations throughout his career with teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, Arizona Cardinals, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. His familiarity with different defensive systems makes him an ideal candidate to step in seamlessly and contribute right away.
For Washington, depth at cornerback has become increasingly important as they navigate a grueling early-season schedule. The Commanders have emphasized the need to limit big plays downfield, something that proved costly in last week’s loss. Hamilton’s ability to match up with opposing receivers, support the run game, and bring a physical presence to the secondary adds another layer of reliability.
The coaching staff has consistently praised Hamilton’s professionalism and preparation. By elevating him to the active roster, the Commanders demonstrate confidence in his ability to adapt quickly and execute their defensive game plan against a tough opponent.
Riggo’s Rag
Commanders must restrict Brock Bowers’ influence to stand any chance of Week 3 success
Veteran quarterback Geno Smith had one of the worst games of his career, finishing with three interceptions and going 0-for-12 when throwing more than 10 yards downfield. He also only targeted Bowers, one of his best receiving options, once in the entire first half. That’s not a formula for success.
If Washington’s defense has a similar performance to Week 2, Smith won’t have a problem moving the ball. The Commanders allowed Packers quarterback Jordan Love to complete 61.5 percent of his passes that went beyond 10 yards, which placed the NFL in the 99th percentile for average depth of target (ADot).
Bowers is an atypical tight end, which poses match-up challenges for defenses. In college, he lined up in the slot or as an outside receiver for more snaps than he did at an in-line tight end position. That diversity in his route running has continued with the Raiders.
After watching Kraft torch the Commanders in Week 2, burning veteran linebacker Bobby Wagner for a 57-yard catch and later stiff-arming safety Will Harris on a 17-yard gain, Washington’s defense could be in for another tough test in Week 3. Seeing the Georgia product line up as a receiver might be even worse, given how Marshon Lattimore and Mike Sainristil have been struggling.
Kraft had a 12.3 yards after catch per reception average against the Commanders. Coming out of college, Bowers was known for his YAC ability. He maintained that consistency in his rookie year, leading all tight ends with 596 yards.
Podcasts & videos
HC Dan Quinn Previews Raiders vs. Commanders | The Gameplan | NFL
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Turf Show Times
4 under the radar Eagles to know before Sunday’s game
3 – Tyler Steen, RG
Steen was a 2023 third round pick out of Alabama. This is his first season as the full-time starter, and he’s largely been the weakest link on an otherwise stout offensive line.
Steen has been better as a pass blocker through he’s allowed the third-most pressures on the line behind Landon Dickerson (five, battled early injuries) and Jordan Mailata (four) and accounted for 17% of the pressures on Jalen Hurts.
But as a run blocker, Steen is clearly the worst among Philly’s starting five and this is a reason why Saquon Barkley hasn’t been able to fill up the box score as well as he did a year ago. Last year’s offensive player of the year averaged 5.7 yards part carry in 2024 and this year that mark has lowered to 3.7. Barkley is averaging under 75 yards per game.
Barkley obviously had his way with the Rams in two matchups last season. Los Angeles added defensive reinforcements in Landman and interior defensive lineman Poona Ford. Is this enough to slow Barkley in what seems to be a down year? It could be a major factor in deciding the outcome of Sunday’s game.
Upcoming opponent
Silver & Black Pride
Raiders Week 3: Third down, Red zone success key
[T]he Raiders want to get Jeanty — the sixth overall pick from the 2025 draft — more involved in the offense. Balance and involvement dominated the media sessions this week so it’ll be interesting to see if the want become reality.
[W]hat’s also key in the Raiders-Commanders matchup: Third down and red zone success.
Both Las Vegas (1-1) and Washington (1-1) boast stingy defensive units, particularly, on third down.
Patrick Graham’s Raiders defense limited opposing offenses to eight third-down conversions on 25 attempts and that 32 percent rate gives the Silver & Black the third stingiest in the league. Joe Whitt Jr’s Commanders defense, on the other hand, allowed just nine third-down conversions on 28 attempts and the 32.1 percent rate ranks fourth best in the NFL.
Scoring red zone touchdowns on Las Vegas is equally as difficult.
Through two games, opponents have made it to the Raiders’ 20-yard line six times, and only twice have the opposition visited the end zone in those instances. That 33.3 percent clip gives Graham’s unit the fifth-best rank in the league. The Commanders, meanwhile, allowed three end zone visits on the six occasions teams made it to the red zone and that 50 percent clip gives Washington the 11th-best ranking.
Head-to-Head
Sunday’s game marks the 15th meeting between the two teams. The Raiders hold the slight edge in all-time meetings with an 8-7 win-loss record. In regular season play, however, it’s all knotted up at seven games, apiece. That 1-0 mark for the Silver & Black in postseason play was the 38-9 shellacking the Raiders handed the then-Redskins in Super Bowl XVIII. That all noted, it’s Washington that rides a four-game winning streak into this matchup, the most recent of which was a 17-15 win back in December of 2021. The last time the Raiders beat the Commanders: November of 2005 — a 16-13 victory.
Quote of Note
“Yeah, he’s a stud football player and an even better human. I mean, he’s one of the more special people I’ve had an opportunity to meet in my life. He’s a class act. He’s a hell of a player, and he’s also a class act. And if Jayden (Daniels) can’t play and Marcus can, then these guys know him. He was here. Greg Olson coached him and knows him really well. Oly [Greg Olson] has coached him at the professional level. I had him at the collegiate level, so we got the utmost respect. And I think Jayden is an unbelievable player. I saw Jayden play in high school and I played against him in college too, and he’s an amazing player. You’re talking about two guys that were both Heisman Trophy winners, two guys that were both the second pick in the draft. And there’s a reason for that. So, it’s something for our defensive guys that they are very conscious of.”
—Las Vegas Raiders offensive coordinator Chip Kelly on Washington Commanders backup quarterback Marcus Mariota
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What I’m hearing on the Tom Brady problem, the tush push’s future and Caleb Williams
Backup Bonanza
Turf toe troubles, ankle sprains and concussions, oh my. Let’s spin through the QB carousel:
The Cincinnati Bengals are turning to Jake Browning with Joe Burrow out for months following Friday’s surgery for Grade 3 turf toe. The hope is Burrow could return in December, but talking to players who’ve suffered the same injury, that’s a long shot for anyone, even if it’s not off the table. For now, the Bengals are sticking with Browning — no veteran QB hunt yet.
(Did you know turf toe doesn’t just happen on turf? It can happen on natural grass surfaces, too. Turf toe is about the ligaments in the foot, not the material.)
In Minnesota, Carson Wentz, who grew up a Vikings fan, gets the start as J.J. McCarthy recovers from a high ankle sprain. McCarthy could miss a few more weeks, but there’s some good news. (And more on Wentz below.)
The New York Jets are going with veteran Tyrod Taylor, while Justin Fields sits in concussion protocol.
In Washington, reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels is nursing a knee sprain. They’ve ruled out an MCL sprain, but he won’t play. Marcus Mariota steps in against a Raiders team he once played for.
Out west, Brock Purdy returned to practice on a limited basis after his turf toe injury, but the San Francisco 49ers are playing it safe. That means another week for Mac Jones as the starter, coming off the best game of his career against the New Orleans Saints. Purdy could be the backup or emergency quarterback.
