Even though it’s only Week 2, Florida State’s (1-1, 0-1) bye week could not have come at a better time.
The Seminoles looked lethargic against New Mexico State in Week 0 before being clearly the worst team against SMU on Labor Day, with the Seminoles unable to capitalize on winning the turnover margin, essentially by a 4-0 margin.
“Just another close game,” head coach Mike Norvell told the local Tallahassee media after the Noles’ first defeat on Monday. “A lot of one plays, and you think back through
it, some of the explosive plays that we had, that we gave up defensively, some missed opportunities there offensively.”
Norvell’s job status looms over the program, but the Seminoles have red flags all over the roster right now. Unfortunately for them, there will be no rest for the weary. After the bye week, FSU travels to Tuscaloosa to take on a 12th-ranked Alabama team looking for revenge after the Seminoles’ stunning Week 1 upset last year in Tallahassee.
It might get worse before it gets better, as evidenced by these three concerning stats from the opening two weeks of Florida State’s season.
5 — That is the number of receptions Duce Robinson has had through the first two games of the season. Sam Singleton Jr. (six catches) has more out of the backfield.
The Seminoles have been unable to get their best offensive weapon going, and in one of the biggest moments of the game against SMU, Robinson dropped a contested catch in the end zone. Of course, Robinson’s small stat sheet is just one microcosm of a passing offense that is virtually non-existent.
Against the Mustangs, FSU’s passing offense could barely move the ball. According to gameonpaper.com, Florida State had a 0.14 EPA/dropback compared to 0.65 from SMU and averaged 4.73 yards per dropback, landing in the 23rd percentile.
The poor passing stats are a reflection of all parts of the offense, from a coaching staff that does not put its players into position for them to be successful, a below-average offensive line and, ultimately, disappointing quarterback play.
All offseason, coaches and players alike lauded Ashton Daniels for his maturity and command of the offense, but in two games, he hasn’t shown up. Daniels’ completion percentage sits at an unimpressive 58% while averaging only 6.5 yards per attempt. He lost the trust of his coaching staff during the SMU game, evidenced by only 23 passing attempts on 67 total offensive snaps. Without a quarterback who can push the ball downfield and create easy completions, feeding Robinson is almost impossible.
“We have very good players on the wings, and we have to do a good job of moving them and putting them in positions,” offensive coordinator Tim Harris Jr. said during his post-SMU availability. “We had an opportunity … that we couldn’t seize, but these are the balls that need to be won.”
The main priority for FSU’s offensive coaching staff during the bye week should be finding a way to get Robinson involved and using that as a catalyst to fix the rest of the passing game.
2 — That is the number of sacks from Florida State’s defensive line through two games this season. Maybe a better number could have been zero: the number of sacks the entire FSU defense had against SMU on Monday.
No matter what number is chosen, FSU’s defensive line has been one of the most disappointing units on the team, which is saying a lot because almost all of the position groups have been underwhelming.
Starting with the stars of the defense, neither Mandrell Desir nor Daniel Lyons has made an impact in the early part of the season. Lyons began the year without recording a stat against New Mexico State, only for Desir not to end up on the stat sheet versus SMU, as he did not make a tackle. The second year in Tony White’s system was supposed to help both players take another step by moving all across the defensive front, but that hasn’t come to fruition at the start of the year.
As far as the depth behind those two, no one’s game appears to be anything above average. Deante McCray has only one tackle for loss and three total tackles through two games this year. The two defensive tackles behind McCray and Lyons, Kevin Wynn and Jordan Sanders, combined to play 32 of 67 snaps against SMU, while each earning PFF grades under 60. At least Rylan Kennedy and Jalen Anderson have one sack apiece this year (hence the stat), but neither is an elite pass rusher.
Even though Tony White believed his defense “balled out” for 60 snaps against SMU, his defensive front has done nothing of the sort to begin the year.
25,000 — At of Saturday afternoon, Florida State has +25000 odds to win the ACC, according to FanDuel. That means you would win $25,000 if you bet $100 on that happening and it does. To put those odds into perspective, those are the same odds that the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets have to win the Super Bowl before the start of the season, per FanDuel.
It is unthinkable that two games into the season, with only one conference game played, only two teams have worse odds to win the conference, Boston College and Stanford. And yet, that displays the fall from grace from Florida State after winning the ACC only three seasons ago.
Another reason for FSU’s impossible odds is the strength of schedule they will face the rest of the season. Miami looks to build on last season. Virginia and Louisville are both in the top 25, meaning that the first four in-conference opponents and first five Power Four opponents on the schedule are ranked at this point in the season. The Noles still have tough tests later in the schedule, including Clemson and a road trip to Pitt. As mentioned at the start of the article, if it seems bad now, it may get worse.
