I’m currently enjoying a little down time on an island off the coast of North Carolina, so I’m going with a condensed version of my usual preview. I’ve been messing around with the format of these previews
all season to try and find something that y’all want to read because I spend a good bit of time writing them. We’ll see if this works.
Minnesota Thus Far
Sometimes I feel like analysis around college football gets too granular. Instead of focusing on individual players, let’s talk about what Minnesota wants to do on offense against a team like Purdue.
That means throwing out Buffalo and Northwestern State games because Minnesota, in theory, has a significant talent advantage over those two squads. It also means throwing out the Ohio State game because the Buckeyes have a significant talent advantage over the Gophers. Purdue can’t do what Ohio State can do, or they wouldn’t be 2-3 and in desperate need of a road win in Minnesota on Saturday.
That puts my focus on two games:
Sept 13: California 27 – Minnesota 14 @ California
Sept 27: Minnesota 31 – Rutgers 28 @ Minnesota
I see this as the first game Barry Odom era at Purdue where he doesn’t have a significant talent advantage or deficit. Minnesota probably has deeper talent, but the gulf in class isn’t so great that Purdue has to do something extraordinary to win the game. If you want a look at what I consider the “real” Odom game plan, you’ll get a look at it Saturday night.
California 27 – Minnesota 14
Cal’s win over the Gopher’s in week three was considered somewhat of an upset at the time. The game boiled down to Cal’s quarterback, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, outplaying Minnesota quarterback Drake Lindsey.
Their stats from the game tell the story:
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele: 24/38 – 279 Yards – 3 TDs – 0 INTs
Drake Lindsey: 19/32 – 205 – 1 TD – 1 INT
If Purdue wins on Saturday, the Boilermakers will win because Ryan Browne outplays Drake Lindsey, and Browne is good enough to make that happen!
The only issue is the keeping the Gopher ground game from getting involved in the proceedings and gumming up the works. Purdue needs this to be a referendum on quarterback play and hope they come out on the right end of things. That means the defense can’t let Minnesota’s ground game, led by Fame Ijeboi get going.
I know, I know, the Boilermaker secondary hasn’t covered itself in glory the last few weeks, but this, in theory, is a significant step down in competition. For Purdue to get the skill possession battle they want, the defense has to gear up to stop the run and hope the back end of the defense can hold up enough, or force enough turnovers, to give Browne a chance to make one more play than his counterpart.
I don’t think the Boilermaker defense has been great by any stretch of the imagination. There have been some blown coverages and missed tackles in the secondary that have kept Purdue’s offense from pushing top level opponents. At the same time, they have yet to be dominated by a run game. Even Notre Dame’s 254-yard outburst didn’t significantly tilt time of possession in the Irish’s favor (mainly due to a few soul crushing big runs). For the most part, the defense has managed to get off the field, one way or another, and they’ll need to do that against on Saturday.
The worst-case scenario is for Purdue’s defense to give up sustained Minnesota drives. The Boilermaker offense is explosive, but not particularly efficient, they need several bites of the apple to make up for the inevitable drops, penalties, and turnovers.
If this is a low possession game, I’ll take Minnesota 10/10 times.
If Purdue can turn this isn’t a high possession shootout, I’ll still take the Gophers, but I’ll take them 6/10 times.
I don’t think y’all need any help doing the math.
Minnesota wanted to dominate the Cal game on the ground but couldn’t get the job done despite 37 attempts because the Golden Bears defense held them 3.5 yards per attempt. Without having the run game as a consistent first down engine to protect redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Lindsey, the fourth quarter turned into a game of “who has the better quarterbacks” and on this day, they answer was Cal.
It seems counter intuitive, but Purdue can’t try to protect their secondary by playing coverage, because if they do, Minnesota will run them off the field. They have to keep seven or eight defenders in the box and hope some of the mistakes in the secondary are rectified against a less experienced quarterback.
I’ll give this coaching staff credit; there is a way they could coach the defense to limit big plays while also limiting Purdue’s chances to win. They could keep their safeties back and choose to die a death of 1,000 cuts from the run game, but for the most part, they’ve decided to stick with their aggressive play calling, and if nothing else, die a quick death on defense.
They’ll need to do the same thing against Minnesota on Saturday if they want the same outcome as the Bears.
Minnesota 31 – Rutgers 28
What’s interesting about Minnesota’s win over Rutgers is it flips the script of the Cal game. Rutgers wanted to dominate the game on the ground, but the Gopher’s won because their quarterback outplayed the Rutgers quarterback.
Athan Kaliakmanis: 21/34 – 249 Yards – 2 TDs – 1 INT
Drake Lindsey: 31/41 – 324 Yards – 3 TDs – 0 INT
Rutgers got what they wanted out of the run game. Antwan Raymond went for 161 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries, but Minnesota did enough with their offense in the third quarter, limiting Rutgers to 4 plays, while their offense cranked out 10 points on two dives that ate up the entire quarter, mostly through the air.
The Gophers were able to turn the fourth quarter into a quarterback battle, and their quarterback won the game with a 7 play, 7 pass touchdown drive to take a 31-28 lead with 3:05 left on the clock, and all Rutgers could do with the remaining time is get in position for a 56-yard field goal attempt at the death that went wanting.
As I mentioned ab0ve, Minnesota can absolutely win a game with their quarterback. Lindsey has a cannon. He threw for approximately 1 million yards at a private Arkansas High School for a reason, but he’s still a freshman. Against Rutgers he got the job done, but he fell short against Cal. If Purdue turns this into a shootout, the game is still in the Gophers favor at home, but it brings variance into the outcome.
As Woody Hayes pointed out in what seems like a different football universe, “There are three things can happen when you throw a pass, two of them are bad.”
I have seen no indication that Purdue has the type of offense line that can bite down on the bit and power the team to a win on the ground. The Boilermakers have to put the ball in the air to win, and as we’ve seen, bad things can, and often do, happen on occasion. If the other team can take the risk averse ground route, eventually the Boilermakers will make a fatal mistake on offense.
In Summary
The Purdue offense is going to make mistakes in a high scoring, high possession game.
The Purdue offense is going to make mistakes in a low scoring, low possession game.
That’s where the program is at the moment. It’s not ideal, but it’s significantly more entertaining than the hopeless dreck we had inflicted upon us last season.
The big picture gameplan isn’t complicated.
Keep Minnesota from dominating the game on the ground and hope Ryan Browne and Purdue’s skill position players outplay Drake Lindsey and Minnesota’s skill position players.
I fully expect a couple catastrophic Purdue plays on offense, but if Minnesota is forced to put the ball in the air, they are more than capable of returning the favor. If Purdue’s run defense holds up, if nothing else, we should be in for some solid Saturday night entertainment.
I’m not predicting a Purdue win. The most likely scenario a Minnesota victory in a competitive game that ends with a 10-14 point Golden Gopher victory.
If, however, Purdue were to leave Minnesota with The Little Brown Jug, the score will probably look something like this:
Purdue – 41
Minnesota – 38
Either way, this should be a good game.
