I will talk from time to time about the “shape” of a win. As much fun as these come from behind, walk-off wins are, it would be okay to have some mundane wins too. It’s ironic that Bears quarterback Caleb Williams and Pete Crow-Armstrong have been publicly seen hanging out this year. The Bears set an NFL record for games in a single season in which they were losing in the fourth quarter and eventually won. The Cubs are leading major league baseball in walk-off wins. This was their eighth. Both teams
have had a pretty special season in terms of come from behind.
In the long run, the problem is that these types of wins are often a little fluky. The win against the A’s happened, in part, because the A’s had used a lot of bullpen in securing a pair of one-run wins against the Cubs. I’m sure the Bears coaching and management staff would all say that if they have to rely on a lot of last-second wins in the upcoming season, they’ll probably struggle. Yes, there is something a team picks up in terms of confidence and standing up to pressure that comes from these wins. But as we saw in the couple of games where Williams and the Bears didn’t complete their comeback attempts, one bad bounce or one odd play can derail one of those games.
I’m reminded of the Cubs front office pointing out that the best teams aren’t necessarily the best in close games. The best teams win the most games comfortably and don’t have to sweat out one of those unfortunate bad plays. You want to build a model that builds a team that just straight out wins games. Unfortunately, this Cubs team and that Bears team weren’t really those teams. The margins were too close. Everything was necessarily a grind. So here we are. It’s not going to be easy or pretty. But this team is still in the hunt. In for a penny, in for a pound. Let’s take the journey.
A quick hat tip to most of the Cub pitching staff. Two runs allowed in 10 innings is an excellent performance. A homer off of Caleb Thielbar (who did strike out two of the three he faced) and Daniel Palencia’s rough ninth inning was really the only blemishes for the pitching staff. Everyone else was pretty superb. As is so often the case with games like this, there are very few contributions that you could take out of the stack and still see a Cubs win. Every little bit helps.
Three Positives:
- I mean, this was Pete Crow-Armstrong’s game. Four hits, two of them homers. One tied the game in the sixth and one tied the game in the ninth. Very nice.
- Ben Brown threw 5.1 innings, faced just 19 hitters and allowed a hit, a walk and hit a batter. He struck out five. I continue to think any path to staying competitive is going to look just like this 16-20 batters faced for the starter and get out of there. Don’t save bullets or worry about setting things up for facing a hitter three times.
- Jacob Webb threw two scoreless innings. He did have to face eight hitters to get six outs, but he’s been a god send in the bullpen. With he and Brown both throwing, you saw the two most effective Cub pitchers so far in one game.
Game 65, June 6: Cubs 3, Giants 2 (34-31)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.737). 4-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R
- Hero: Ben Brown (.310). 5.1 IP, 19 BF, H, BB, 0 ER, 5 K, HBP
- Sidekick: Ryan Rolison (.308). IP, 2 K
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Daniel Palencia (-.305). IP, 5 BF, 2 H, 0 ER, K
- Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.175). 0-4
- Kid: Alex Bregman (-.175) . 0-3, BB, K
WPA Play of the Game: Pete Crow-Armstrong’s game-tying, solo homer with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. (.489)
Giants Play of the Game: Bryce Eldrige singled with a runner on first and one out in the ninth, the game tied. (.186).
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 64 Winner: Seiya Suzuki received 61 of 105 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Michael Busch +22
- Ben Brown +11.5
- Pete Crow-Armstrong/Michael Conforto +10
- Carson Kelly +9.5
- Ryan Rolison/Phil Maton/Jameson Taillon -8
- Caleb Thielbar -9
- Matt Shaw -10
- Dansby Swanson -11
- Seiya Suzuki -26.5
Win Pace: 84.7
Up Next: The third and final game of the series. Jameson Taillon (2-5, 5.13, 66.2 IP) starts for the Cubs. He’s allowed nine homers in his last four starts (21 IP). Last time, he was pretty decent over 6.1 innings, allowing two runs on six hits and a walk. Hopefully he can do that again. 25-year-old right hander Trevor McDonald (2-3, 4.50, 34 IP) starts for the Giants. Making just his seventh start of the year for the Giants, McDonald has lost his last three starts, allowing 12 earned runs in 15 innings of work.
It’s been a long time since the Cubs won a series. How about now?
