In the cage match known as the American League East, the Tampa Bay Rays stand apart — and not for a good reason. After more than half a decade as regular contenders in the Junior Circuit, including two AL East titles and a trip to the 2020 World Series, the Rays have fallen to the wayside over the past two years. Only unexpected disaster seasons from the Toronto Blue Jays in 2024 and the Baltimore Orioles in 2025 have saved them from the division basement the last two years, as the Rays finished
these seasons with just 80 and 77 wins, respectively.
That being said, this is the Rays we’re talking about, and even if they hadn’t finished the 2025 season with a run differential giving a projected record of 84-78, only a fool would truly count them out.
2025 record: 77-85 (4th, AL East)
2026 FanGraphs projection: 81-81 (5th, AL East)
The Tampa Bay Rays run the organization like they’re playing Out of the Park Baseball, shipping out established Major League vets for prospects right at the moment they’re about to start costing money, all in the effort to keep the payroll down and keep the farm system stocked. This winter was absolutely no different, as they flipped Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe, Jake Mangum and Shane Baz, a quartet of players who were major contributors to last year’s squad. Meanwhile, their three major free agent acquisitions — Steven Matz, Cedric Mullins, and Jake Fraley — don’t exactly break the bank financially. Furthermore, they inserted themselves into a pair of three-team trades in January, reeling in Gavin Lux from the Reds to play second base and Ben Williamson from the Mariners to back up Junior Caminero at the hot corner.
As it currently stands, the Rays lineup depends on three players: the 22-year-old Caminero (128 projected wRC+), the 27-year-old Jonathan Aranda (119 projected wRC+), and the 35-year-old Yandy Diaz (128 projected wRC+). Besides this trio, FanGraphs only expects Lux to have an above-average bat, and even there, he’s projected to only have a 101 wRC+; the rest of the lineup is filled out with players who have their best baseball in the rearview mirror (e.g., Mullins) or those who have made Anthony Volpe look like a dominant hitter (e.g., shortstop Taylor Walls).
Of course, the Rays have never been built on offensive prowess, but on pitching, and that remains the same this year. Even after trading Baz to the Orioles, Tampa Bay has quite a bit of depth here, as Drew Rasmussen and Ryan Pepiot give them a pair of quality starters atop the rotation. If Shane McClanahan is healthy—something which hasn’t been the case since August 2, 2023—that ostensibly gives the team a trio of quality starters 30 years of age or younger — something that few teams would say no to. Behind them, Nick Martinez and Matz should be quality depth. And despite losing Pete Fairbanks in free agency, the bullpen — headlined by Griffin Jax — has considerable veteran depth, albeit no truly dominant relievers.
All in all, the Tampa Bay Rays are a solid team, and in any other division, would likely be in a position to win enough games to challenge for a Wild Card spot. But as Dan Szymborski said back in January, “this is a tough division,” and because of that, the Rays “need some good fortune” to sneak into the playoffs.
At least this year, they’ll be able to play in their own stadium, and not the Yankees’ minor league complex.
More Pinstripe Alley MLB team season previews can be found here.
