Last year’s Toronto Raptors exceeded expectations, as the young and athletic squad racked up 46 wins, their most since the 2021-22 season, and finished fifth in the Eastern Conference before pushing the fourth-seed Cleveland Cavaliers to the brink in the first round of the playoffs.
The Cavs’ second-half surge in Game 7 highlighted the importance of homecourt advantage (and experience) in the postseason. With the addition of former Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard, growth from the teams’ young core, and the scars
of playoff battles, can the Raps win enough games to finish in the top four in a brutal Eastern Conference?
Can the Raptors take the next step?
Last year’s team was a pain for opponents to play against, especially in front of raucous Scotiabank Arena crowds. Toronto had a top-five defence that refused to let opponents get comfortable in their offensive sets, thanks to intense ball pressure from bulldogs like Scottie Barnes and Jamal Shead, but their offence was squarely in the middle of the pack (15th in offensive efficiency) and struggled to generate clean looks in the fourth quarters of tight games. Adding a two-way superstar like Kawhi should only bolster an already-strong defence, while adding a proven late-game scorer who can help get them unstuck in late-game situations. Still, though, a few question marks remain.
The ‘25-’26 Raptors were a below-average three-point shooting team, which restricted the spacing that Barnes, a slasher who thrives in transition, needs to dominate, and they were in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive rebounding. Their ability to address those two weaknesses will go a long way toward helping them shoot further up the standings.
The current squad is replete with quality guards and wings, but few are plus shooters. Leonard’s an excellent three-point shooter (38.7% last season and above 41% each of the three seasons before that), but he’s a medium-volume guy from deep. The big question isn’t so much whether or not he can space the floor for Scottie (he can), but how the spacing will look for Kawhi when he’s doing work in the midrange, which could be tricky given that neither of the team’s top two bigs (Jacob Poeltl and Collin Murray-Boyles) are threats from outside.
They may go to some lineups late in games with no traditional big on the floor, perhaps with Barnes as the nominal centres, but they suffer on the glass when Poeltl is on the bench, given that CMB is on the smaller side and only averaged 4.4 defensive boards per 36 minutes last year. That might not hurt them against the league’s smaller teams, but giants like Karl Anthony-Towns and Joel Embiid, both in the Raptors’ division, can take advantage.
On the plus side, better health from Immanuel Quickley and a potential mini-leap from Ja’Kobe Walter (40.9% from three last year), could offset their shooting deficiency and they have plenty of assets to pursue another big man should they feel they need one.
Who else is in the race?
The race for a top-four spot will be hotly contested, but the Raptors should be considered among the strong favorites. Kawhi has a long injury history, but suited up 65 times last season, and something similar should be plenty for a team that has plenty of depth on the wings, with Barnes and RJ Barrett both capable of scoring around 20 a night for a season. The East’s other contenders all have star-studded units but some concerns heading into the season.
The Philadelphia 76ers vaulted themselves into the NBA title race with the acquisitions of LeBron James and Jaylen Brown, but even with those two and Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe in the starting lineup, Embiid is absolutely central to what they do, and he’s only averaging a paltry 32 games played over the last three campaigns. And on top of that, their backup centre, former Knick Ariel Hukporti tore his Achilles in the preseason opener, leaving them dangerously thin in the frontcourt. The Sixers may still be dangerous when the postseason comes around, but you should expect a fair amount of missed games from Bron and Embiid. It wouldn’t be shocking to see them outside of the top four when the season ends.
Detroit felt like they overachieved with 60 wins last year, but John Collins could do a lot to help raise their offensive ceiling, especially if Cade Cunningham can help him look like he did back in Atlanta, where he scored 21.6 points per game on 58-40-80 shooting splits at just 22 years old. Few are as skilled at setting the table as Trae Young, but Cunningham draws a ton of defensive attention and there should be opportunities for him to feast. They might also get another year of improvement from an allegedly very disgruntled Jalen Duren.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been a strong regular season team as of late, and Peyton Watson is a nice addition, especially if he maintains his improvement as a shooter, but they’re asking for a lot out of a lead ballhandler who was born in the 80s, even if he was super efficient after landing in Cleveland last season. James Harden’s been healthy and available consistently, their all-offence backcourt could wear down as the season progresses.
It feels like you can pencil in the Boston Celtics to win 50-plus games every season. Just as they managed to win 56 last year with Jayson Tatum missing most of the season, swapping Jaylen Brown for the older (but better-shooting) Paul George will likely do little to slow them down….if he can stay on the court. George hasn’t played 82 games in the last two years combined and rostering him instead of the consistently healthy Brown might be what drops them below 50 this season, but great depth and good coaching could keep them near the top regardless.
The Knicks smacked their Eastern Conference foes en route to a historic NBA championship, but they were mostly fine in the regular season, looking discombobulated at points during a 53-win campaign. Star player Jalen Brunson is coming off of a surgery and head coach Mike Brown is unafraid to experiment with both the playbook and the rotation during the regular season, even if it costs them some regular season wins. Despite their playoff dominance, it’s unlikely they’ll go full throttle to chase the one-seed. Finishing somewhere around third again sounds about right for them, especially if some of their contract disputes lead to a shakeup, or even a distraction.
Orlando has plenty of talent, but the Magic will be adjusting to a new head coach, while still dealing with a somewhat misshapen roster that has crashed and burned in the playoffs amidst a lack of shooting and creation. They should be in the playoff hunt again thanks to their defence, but likely not in the upper tier. Meanwhile, the Hawks (tied with the Raptors at 46 wins last year) added to their fearsome wing defence, but still lack a true offensive engine, despite strong production from Jalen Johnson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Charlotte is in a similar space without a true star, reorienting themselves after the departure of LaMelo Ball, and the Heat added major star power in Giannis Antetokounmpo but lack any real depth outside of him and 83-point scorer Bam Adebayo. As for the Washington Wizards, they are the Washington Wizards until proven otherwise.
Prediction
I think ultimately, the East will shake out something like this:
- Detroit
- Boston
- New York
- Toronto
- Cleveland
- Philly
- Atlanta
- Orlando
- Miami
- Charlotte
