Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, November 7 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Network: CBS
- Location: Michie Stadium — West Point, NY
- Spread: Army (-3.5)
- Over/under: 47.5
- All-time series: Air Force leads, 38-21-1
- Last meeting: Army 20, Air Force 17 — November 1, 2025
- Current streak: Army, 3 (2023–25)
Setting the scene
Air Force had a drive last Saturday that lasted 11 minutes and 37 seconds. You could make a pretty respectable grilled cheese in that time, eat it, and come back to find the Falcons still on the field.
Now put that offense across from Army. The Black Knights lead the country at 342.5 rushing yards per game. Air Force is second at 341.0. The difference between the two best ground games in college football is a yard and a half. Naturally, neither team is particularly interested in punting on fourth-and-one.
Air Force already beat Navy 14–9, so a win at West Point would secure a record 22nd Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy and its first since 2022. Army can keep its own trophy bid alive heading into December’s Navy game, clinch bowl eligibility and beat the Falcons four straight for the first time. The first meeting was a 13–13 tie at Yankee Stadium on Halloween in 1959. This one is the first Army-Air Force night game at Michie since 2006. Air Force was also the opponent for the stadium’s first night game in 1984. Apparently, somebody had to show the Falcons where the light switch was.
Air Force Falcons outlook
Air Force (6-2, 3-2 Mountain West) became bowl-eligible with a 35–26 win over UConn, and all it took was a fullback going back to quarterback and having the game of his life. With Evan Medders injured, senior Kemper Hodges carried 35 times for 200 yards and four touchdowns, including a 62-yarder. It was his first career 100-yard game. He skipped right over the part where you ease into a milestone.
The Falcons held the ball for 41:54. UConn had it for 3:35 in the entire second half. That 11:37 drive covered 75 yards in 19 plays, and three of Hodges’ 11 first-down runs came on fourth down. Air Force has converted 20 of 24 fourth downs this season, best in the country. Army is second at 82.4%.
And now for my favorite thing in the Air Force notes. The offensive line calls itself the Diesel because center Christopher Mitchell bumped into tight end Lesley Dalger in the locker room in 2018 and Dalger called him a diesel. There are hats with a fuel pump on them. The mother of former Falcon Wolfgang Rehbock helped procure the first batch. Senior linemen vote on who earns one, and the ceremony is a secret. I have so questions, which I suspect is exactly how the Diesel likes it.
Army Black Knights outlook
Army (5-3, 4-2 American) would probably like to put the Memphis tape in the same vault as the Diesel ceremony. The Black Knights lost 49–22 on Halloween, and quarterback Cale Hellums managed just 34 yards on 13 carries. He’s averaging 109.3 rushing yards per game, so that’s a pretty good picture of what happens when a defense takes away his keepers. Air Force is giving up 129.1 rushing yards per game, and Godspower Nwawuihe’s 100 yards at Memphis are a reminder that Army has another way to make the Falcons defend the full width of the run game. He also ripped off a 66-yard touchdown at Tulsa.
The pass I’d keep in the back of my mind belongs to Hellums. Last year, he hit Brady Anderson for 42 yards to set up Dawson Jones’ 27-yard winner at Air Force. Army averages just 71.1 passing yards per game, but you only need one safety to get a little too invested in the run for a throw like that to matter.
And if it comes down to Jones again? He hit from 51 and 50 at Tulsa, the latter as time expired in a 38–35 win. Army’s notes say he’s the first kicker in program history to make two field goals from 50 or longer in the same game. In a matchup where both coaches are happy to spend four downs getting ten yards, having a kicker who can make the last 15 yards of a drive optional is a pretty good luxury.
Prediction
I’m taking Army. Air Force has the better run-defense numbers, and Hodges just showed what happens when a defense can’t get him off the field. But if both offenses squeeze the possession count, one fourth-down stop can swing the game. Give me Army at home, Hellums getting one more crack at a defense that has to account for Nwawuihe, and Jones with a chance to make this rivalry feel awfully familiar.
Prediction — Army 24, Air Force 21
