BYU and Texas Tech are both down one of their stars, but both teams have responded differently. Including the game in which JT Toppin and Richie Saunders got hurt, BYU is 2-4 while Texas Tech is 3-2 since those injuries. Two of those wins for Texas Tech were a 12-point home win versus Cincinnati and a road win at Iowa State. Tech is coming off an 8-point home loss to TCU.
Despite the awful last three games for BYU, the Cougs are slight favorites over the Red Raiders. This game is Senior Night, where
BYU will honor Richie Saunders, Keba Keita, Mihailo Boskovic, and Jared McGregor.
The game tips off Saturday night at 8:30pm MT on ESPN.
Texas Tech and BYU by the Numbers
Texas Tech KenPom: 14
NET ranking: 14
Record: 22-8 (12-5 Big 12)
Best Wins: Wake Forest (N), LSU (N), Duke (N), Oklahoma State (H), Colorado (A/H), Utah (H), BYU (H), Baylor (A), Houston, (H), West Virginia (A), Arizona (A), Kansas State (H), Cincinnati (H), Iowa State (A)
Losses: Illinois (A), Purdue (N), Arkansas (N), Houston (A), UCF (A), Kansas (H), Arizona State (A), TCU (H)
AP Ranking: 10
BYU KenPom: 24
NET Ranking: 25
Record: 20-10 (8-9 Big 12)
AP Ranking: n/a
KenPom Prediction: BYU 82, Texas Tech 81 — BYU 54% Win Probability
Point Spread: BYU -1.5
Point Total: 160.5
Texas Tech Overview
The Red Raiders have have performed admirably since JT Toppin went down. They haven’t allowed more than 73 points in any of the four games without Toppin and have scored 80+ in three of the games. Their road win at Iowa State last Saturday was impressive, but they followed that up with a 73-65 home loss to TCU. TCU owned the glass and won the turnover battle, forcing a a turnover on 24% of Texas Tech possessions.
Texas Tech doesn’t push the tempo much and shoots a ton of threes, especially without Toppin. Christian Anderson is one of the best point guards in the country and has even more responsibility on his shoulders. Texas Tech plays with a big man who is a lob threat, Anderson, and then three perimeter shooters.
Players to Watch
Without Toppin, Tech plays primarily a 7-man rotation. Their backcourt of Anderson, Atwell, and Petty all play well north of 30 minutes.
Christian Anderson, Point Guard — As long as the game is competitive and he is out of foul trouble, Anderson will play just about all 40 mins. He is a well rounded player, averaging 19 points, 8 assists, and 4 rebounds while shooting 42% from three. He dished out 9 assists Tuesday versus TCU, but shot just 1-7 from three and had 6 turnovers.
Donovan Atwell, Guard/Wing — Atwell is one of the best shooters in the country. Atwell hoists over 8 three-point attempts per game and shoots 46% from three. BYU held him to just 1-5 shooting from three in their first matchup, and I expect AJ to spend a lot of time guarding him to try to give him the Momcilovic treatment.
Jaylen Petty, Guard — Petty is Anderson’s 6-foot-1 backcourt mate. He is also a dangerous shooter, shooting 38% from three on over 5 attempts per game. He, Atwell, and Anderson all play a majority of the minutes.
Luke Bamgboye, Center — Bamgboye missed the first matchup due to injury, but BYU saw him last year when he was VCU’s starting center. Bamgboye is a well regarded shot blocker, but isn’t a consistent part of the scoring offense.
Prediction
BYU has played awful the last three games. BYU gave West Virginia a game, but were blown out by UCF and Cincinnati.
Texas Tech is a great three-point shooting team, and will give BYU trouble if the Cougs don’t defend better. BYU has also struggled against dynamic lead guards, and Christian Anderson could have his way with BYU’s defense.
I don’t think anyone would be surprised by a comfortable Tech win. However, I think BYU keeps this close on senior night. Texas Tech showed some cracks in their home loss versus TCU, and I would like to think BYU will have good energy and effort on senior night with Richie Saunders on the bench. AJ will want to give fans a good sendoff in his last game and I think the team will rise up.
If you want a glass half full view, BYU can defend Texas Tech similar in some ways to how they defended Iowa State. Those teams have differences, but one similarity is how Tech uses Atwell and Iowa State uses Momcilovic. AJ shut down Momcilovic while chasing him off screens, and he’ll likely be given a similar responsibility again.
Ultimately, I think Texas Tech wins due to their shooting superiority and BYU’s inability to take advantage of Texas Tech’s rebound deficiencies. If BYU can win one of those battles, they can come out of here with a win.
Prediction: Texas Tech 78, BYU 76
