Game notes
- Time and date: Thursday, October 16 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN
- Location: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium — Greenville, NC
- Spread: East Carolina (-17.5)
- Over/under: 53.5
- All-time series: Series tied, 9-9
- Last meeting: East Carolina 38, Tulsa 31 — November 14, 2024
- Current streak: East Carolina, 1 (2024)
Setting the scene
For the second-straight year, East Carolina vs. Tulsa is a Thursday night showdown on ESPN.
Last year’s meeting was nothing short of a thriller. Points and turnovers were abundant in a back-and-forth thriller which ended Super Bowl XXXIV style, with East Carolina tackling Tulsa on the 1-yard line to secure a 38-31 victory. The 2024 matchup only added to an eventful history between the teams, which includes ECU’s win in the 2008 CUSA Championship Game and a game-winning Hail Mary from Dominique Davis
to Justin Jones in the 2010 opener.
ECU dominated from 2008-15, but Tulsa got its lick back from 2016-23. The series is now even at nine apiece with Thursday night in Greenville serving as the tiebreaker.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane outlook
Tulsa (2-4, 0-3 American) is having an interesting year one under head coach Tre Lamb. If you told any Tulsa fan prior to the season that the Golden Hurricane would knock off Oklahoma State on the road, they’d probably call it a successful year. Tulsa earned its signature moment back in Week 4, but the Golden Hurricane haven’t seen much go their way outside of a fateful Friday in Stillwater.
Tulsa is 0-3 in conference play after facing the gauntlet of Navy, Tulane, and Memphis (combined overall record of 17-1) — which all defeated the Golden Hurricane by 17+ points. A road trip to East Carolina doesn’t make the schedule much easier for Lamb and Co. which must find a way to spark an offense averaging 15.4 points per game vs. FBS competition.
Lamb made a significant decision this week, declaring quarterback Baylor Hayes the starter moving forward, citing the quarterback’s comparative lack of turnovers, ability to move the ball, and his mobility element. 2024 primary starter Kirk Francis and Hayes both saw three starts in Tulsa’s first six games, but Hayes — who started the Oklahoma State game — will be the No. 1 option after a 6-game evaluation process.
Still, Tulsa needs more explosive playmaking in the passing game. The Golden Hurricane went two games without completing a pass beyond 20 yards and only have one 40+ yard completion against FBS competition this year. The primary options have been wide receiver Zion Booker and tight end Brody Foley, while Missouri transfer Micah Tease (19.1 yards per reception) is a tertiary threat that could offer that desired explosive playmaking.
Tulsa typically prefers to move things through the ground, specifically through lead tailback Dominic Richardson. Richardson ranks sixth in the FBS in rushing attempts with 112, and he’ll look to replicate his signature 146-yard Oklahoma State performance once again. While it won’t be easy against a formidable ECU defense, Richardson has the benefit of a healthy offensive line which could see all five starters back in the lineup.
On defense, Tulsa has seen mixed performances on a week-to-week basis (allowing 40+ to Navy and Memphis, while holding Oklahoma State to 12), but the individual star power across the unit is unquestionable. Inside linebacker Ray Coney is tied for sixth nationally with 64 tackles, producing three separate 13+ tackle performances in 2025. Tulsa also features two players in the FBS top 20 in sacks, including 8th-place J’Dan Burnett (6.0 sacks, 8.0 tackles for loss) and 19th-place Byron Turner Jr. (4.5 sacks, 6.0 tackles for loss) manning the defensive end spots. Rounding out the defensive stars is cornerback Elijah Green, who is tied for the national lead with five interceptions. The cornerback snagged two on Navy and another two last outing against Memphis, which bodes well against an ECU offense subject to interceptions at times.
As a collective unit, the Golden Hurricane are 88th in yards per game. With Green leading the way, they manufacture turnovers at a high clip. However, the offense also does, offsetting the defense’s eight takeaways with 12 giveaways. Tulsa has lost the turnover battle in four of five games vs. FBS competition this year, and a positive margin will be needed to pull off the upset in Greenville.
East Carolina Pirates outlook
East Carolina (3-3, 1-1 American) has all the makings of an American contender, whether or not the record says it at the moment. The Pirates’ defense has been a lockdown unit all year, but the offense is subject to the occasional dry spell. The 34-13 loss to BYU may not have felt like one that got away, but the 7-point defeats at NC State and Tulane were right for the taking.
ECU was subject to slow starts in both contests, trailing NC State 17-0 with three minutes left in the first half and Tulane 12-0 at halftime. In the Pirates’ three losses, they scored 10 first half points compared to 39 second half points, so the best way to prevent that feeling is to script better drives out of the gate. But the Pirates witnessed a hot start three Thursdays ago against Army when generating 21 first quarter points. However, that game saw the opposite trend occur, and the Pirates couldn’t function on offense in the second half. The unit is great in spurts but just needs 60 minutes of completeness.
Katin Houser will be tasked with moving the ball from the start to finish, and the quarterback ranks 13th nationally with 1,689 passing yards. Houser has decreased his passing output in each successive week since the opener, but he remains efficient at 67.6 percent and has cut his interceptions in comparison to last year, tossing four through six starts. Another skill ECU would like to see from its starter is increased rushing ability. Houser tacked on 84 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the 2024 Military Bowl win, but his 2025 season-high stands at 16 yards with a season-long rush of 10.
Rushing in general has been the Achilles heel for the Pirates. They rank 28th in rushing attempts yet 85th in rushing production due to a team average of 3.6 yards per carry. No ECU rusher has reached 60 yards this year, and the staff will continue to shuffle through four different running backs until a working solution is found.
Just like running back, ECU utilizes a bevy of wide receivers, and they’ve been the main sources of offensive fuel. Anthony Smith, Yannick Smith, and Brock Spalding all star in the offense with somewhat equal production, boasting between 25-3o receptions and 337-406 yards. The Smiths were vital to the win over Tulsa last November, combining for an explosive 146 yards on seven receptions, and they’ll look to create separation downfield to replicate the 2024 result again.
This ECU defense is quite unshakeable. The Pirates are 15th in scoring defense surrendering 15.5 points per game, driven by a dominant run-stopping unit. They limit opponents to 3.4 yards per carry on the ground and rank seventh nationally with 8.0 tackles for loss per game. It’s a concerted effort from the defensive front as six different players tally at least three TFLs on the season, led by the linebacking duo of Samuel Dankah and Dameon Wilson. Getting short yards in critical situations isn’t easy against these Pirates, which have denied eight of 13 opponent fourth down attempts this fall.
ECU is still somewhat sturdy on the back end, even if the pass defense isn’t as strong as the run defense. Ja’Marley Riddle is the headliner in the secondary with a team-high 36 tackles, complemented by 2.5 tackles for loss, five pass breakups, and an interception.
Prediction
Another Thursday night, another East Carolina game. This will mark the third-straight game and third time in four weeks the Pirates are featured in the ESPN Thursday night matchup. This one should more closely resemble the Army result as opposed to last week’s Tulane result.
The Golden Hurricane’s struggle to notch 20 points in most weeks doesn’t bode well against an ECU defense that consistently clamps its opponents. The Pirates have stymied teams to six points or fewer in all three victories this year. ECU’s run defense should produce plenty of stops at or behind the line of scrimmage, forcing Tulsa to sling it more often than they’re comfortable doing.
Meanwhile, the Pirate offense should see a productive day moving the ball through the air as long as they avoid turnovers. ECU defends Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium and moves back to plus-.500 territory.
Prediction: East Carolina 30, Tulsa 10
