Is winning close games a skill? Is it luck? Or is it a little bit of both?
We all have our opinions on the matter. The Kansas City Chiefs are putting those opinions to the test.
Last season, the Chiefs were
11-0 in one-score games, a stretch that was part of an NFL-record 17 straight victories in such games.
Now that required a bit of good fortune. But it wasn’t all luck… right?
So how can it be that Kansas City has lost all five of 2025’s one-score games?
The Chiefs have lost these matchups in just about every way you can imagine. In the season opener against the Los Angeles Chargers, the defense had no answers for quarterback Justin Herbert — and the offense failed to adjust after wide receiver Xavier Worthy’s injury took him out of the game.
But Kansas City still had plenty of opportunities to get back into the game. In the third quarter, placekicker Harrison Butker missed an extra point that would have tied the matchup at 13. Early in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs’ 2-point conversion failed, ruining a chance to tie the score at 20. Los Angeles scored a touchdown on a seven-minute drive, putting Kansas City down by two scores with just five minutes to play.
A week later, the Philadelphia Eagles came to Arrowhead. Butker missed another kick — a 56-yard field goal — but it was hard to get upset about that after the team failed to capitalize on so many opportunities.
Early in the third quarter, the Chiefs failed on fourth-and-1 from their own 36-yard line — an execution error that immediately resulted in three Philadelphia points. In the fourth, Kansas City had driven deep into Eagles’ territory when safety Andrew Makuba intercepted a tipped pass that he returned 41 yards. That set up the Eagles’ game-winning touchdown. While Kansas City made it interesting by scoring a touchdown with three minutes left, the defense couldn’t get the ball back before time expired.
Then came the road game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Boy… talk about self-inflicted wounds!
Kansas City committed defensive pass interference on a third-and-15, allowed a 38-yard kickoff return, was penalized for holding on its own 31-yard kickoff return and was flagged for a double-team block on another return. Butker also watched one kickoff land out of bounds for a costly penalty.
As if all of that wasn’t enough, the Chiefs’ defense allowed Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence to convert two third downs and score two touchdowns on scrambles. Then late in the third quarter, Kansas City was driving to go up by a score when linebacker Devin Lloyd completed a pick-6 that turned a potential 21-14 lead into a 21-14 deficit.
The loss to the Buffalo Bills was, at least, easier to explain. Kansas City got whooped, plain and simple. The defense had no answers for the Bills’ tight ends and slot receivers. The offense had no answers for the looks Buffalo presented. The Chiefs went 3-for-13 on third down and allowed Buffalo to go 7-for-12. Game. Blouses.
Or at least, it should have been. Kansas City still somehow had plenty of chances to make it a game. Down by seven with more than six minutes left to play, the Chiefs got the ball — but six plays later, the drive ended when quarterback Patrick Mahomes attempted what was essentially an arm punt. The defense then allowed two first downs. Buffalo drained all but 22 seconds off the clock, making Kansas City’s last-gasp effort to tie the game too little and too late.
Then came Sunday’s loss to the Denver Broncos. The Chiefs were 1-for-3 in the red zone with two field goals — which wasn’t going to cut it against Denver’s defense. Even worse, both stalled drives included an offensive penalty in the red zone.
Another stalled drive technically didn’t qualify as a red-zone failure — but it might as well have been. With 10 minutes left in the third quarter — and the game tied at six — the Chiefs had the ball at the Broncos’ 21-yard line when Mahomes threw an interception. A drive that should have netted Kansas City at least three points set up Denver’s first touchdown.
The Chiefs had later opportunities to either take or extend the lead — and failed each time. Midway through the fourth quarter — while leading 19-16 — they went three-and-out. They did it again when the game was tied at 19 with four minutes left. The Broncos scored field goals after each of these drives.
Denver made plays — while Kansas City failed to do so.
This has become the theme of the Chiefs’ season: the team is simply finding ways to lose. Sometimes it’s the special teams. Other times, it’s the defense failing to live up to expectations. But throughout the season, the offense has failed to convert in gotta-have-it drives.
I still believe Mahomes is the world’s best player. But far too often this season, his mistakes have ended crucial drives. Look no further than critical interceptions against the Eagles, Jaguars and Broncos.
The Chiefs’ overall numbers say the team is fine, but I only half-believe them. The offense ranks second in yards per drive and third in points per drive. Oddsmakers still have Kansas City installed as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday against the AFC’s current No. 2 seed: the Indianapolis Colts.
So all hope is not lost. Don’t forget: Kansas City was 6-4 in 2019 before finishing the season 12-4 and winning the Super Bowl. The 2021 team was 6-4 and finished the season 12-5. The Chiefs started the 2023 season 6-1 before losing five of their next eight games on the way to a 9-6 record — and won the Super Bowl.
Still, this is the latest Kansas City has found itself at or below 0.500 during the Mahomes era. And the Chiefs have their own poor performance in one-score games to thank for that.
