Date/Time: Saturday, November 8, 2025 – 3 PM PDT
Location: CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, CA
Broadcast: Fox Sports 1
Radio: 860 KTRB AM (SF Bay Area)
Head-to-Head: Air Force leads the series 5-3
Spread: SJSU -5.5
favorites, O/U 66.5
More than halfway into the season and the madness of the final stretch of the regular season is upon us, where win-loss records and early season strengths and weaknesses are shifting, and where San Jose State (3-5, 2-2 MW) knows exactly the force Air Force (2-6, 1-4 MW) will bring Saturday afternoon.
And it’s predicated on something a bit newer than in previous years for Air Force.
“They are different than past years,” said DC Derrick Odum on facing Air Force over the years. “They’re more spread out; doing more things in the pass game than they’ve ever done as the top offense in our league.”
With the top rushing attack in the Mountain West, second in the entire nation, pushing the rock down teams’ proverbial throats, the Falcons both methodically put up points and chew up time.
Also, Air Force with 2,160 yards on the ground at over five yards per carry is a considerable hezi on any defense.
There is a good chance of blow-by’s that make the Falcons extra potent this year despite the poor record.
5’11” 190 lb. sophomore quarterback Liam Szarka is at the center of it all. As a true dual-threat, Szarka has amassed 816 yards rushing so far this year.
“He’s a tough sucker and he’s durable,” said Odum on Szarka. “He can throw the ball really well and he’s pushing their offense to play at a high level.”
The Falcon’s passing game
With the least amount of attempts in the conference (128), Air Force are tops in yards per attempt (11.56) and yards per completion (19).
With a valid passing threat to complement the run, expect another type of dual-menace in receiver Cade Harris, who’s 536 yards receiving and 293 yards rushing adds a new twist to a multi-headed beast of an offense.
Though the Falcons have about half the total passing yards as San Jose State, Air Force’s offense is still deeply multi-dimensional — especially considering Szarka’s track speed and the idea that Szarka passed for almost 7,000 yards in high school.
Their greatest strength can be their greatest weakness
With such a prolific rushing attack, the obvious question is why Air Force has only one win in the conference.
The easy answer is the Falcons are almost near the bottom of the conference in total defense and like San Jose State, the Falcons are not getting blown out.
The theoretical answer to the service academy style and philosophy is if they fall behind, it becomes more difficult to pass themselves back into games, where each mistake can become costly.
In short, Air Force’s greatest strength is also what can limit them when their script goes wrong.
Therein lies the answers for the Spartan defense
Will it be a game where you can only “try and contain them” because you can’t stop them. Or can it be a game where the Odum defense defies what we’ve all season long: a bending, bowing, sometimes leaky secondary that does enough to keep you in the game so a Walker Eget-led offense can do their thing.
Odds are it will be a San Jose State defense that can take the punches and the blows but never get completely knocked out — at least not while they have a high-octane offense.
Most ideally, what Sparta would like to see would be reminiscent to a 2020 game where Air Force completely capitulated to the Spartans; holding the Falcons to just six points, 206 yards rushing and forcing Airmen to try and be a passing team at the end.
It was a 2020 Spartan defense that had the energy and discipline to defy the then-top rushing attack in the nation into submission.
The Spartans’ chances
The oddsmakers’ analysis has favored the “San-Jose-State-is-supposed-to-win” theme for most of the season.
That sentiment expects to carry into this Saturday afternoon after the shootout win over Hawaii last week but with a slight concern.
“Today, it was a check-the-box practice,” said head coach Ken Niumatalolo on the after-glow of the win over Hawaii. “I don’t know if our guys are still sore from the game, but we have to move forward and not look in a rear-view mirror or pat ourselves on the back.”
“The United States Air Force Academy are gonna fight,“ added Niumatalolo holding the highest graces and honor to the nation’s fighting men.
With the safer assumption that San Jose’s offensive power will at least match that of Air Force, the Spartan defense can prove something significant if they can muster up the spirit of their 2020 defense that held down a prominent Air Force team.
It’s much easier said than done
Stopping a flex-bone triple-option offense is notoriously difficult, as it’s designed to exploit over-pursuit and hesitation.
The Spartans basically need to be assignment perfect for most of the game.
That 2020 Spartan defense was just that but they also brutally punished anyone in their lane.
E.P.I.C.
In recent years, San Jose State has risen from the ashes. It’s been a short while for teams to take notice that the Spartan product was no longer a push-over. For fans and media to see the effect of passion and brotherhood from old-fashioned blue-collar ethic, it took a little longer to believe again in the Spartan brand.
Behind it all is the essence of why student-athletes in general choose to come to this Silicon Valley institution; along with its unique local opportunities, of course.
“It” is also the reason why there’s a deep belief in the player-leaders and player-coaches who are not just the upperclassmen.
From the Tuesday pressers, OC Craig Stutzmann often shares various allegories, similes and metaphors from his wife that humanize the effort and vision to succeed.
“We’ve got to finish. We’ve got to go to a bowl game. So, she came up with something called EPIC,” said Stutzmann. “Extraordinary players inspire comebacks.”
“Players play the game and win games. It’s always about the players,” added Stutzmann.
From freshman and sophomores such as Steven Chavez-Soto and Danny Scudero to seniors Jordan Pollard and Walker Eget, these are a spectrum of inspirational players who also perform at a high-level, but in between there are many more of the unsung with the same who all blend as one team.
In the end, this Saturday afternoon game is a glimpse of the end-of-year journey — a final push to finish the year strong.
If the offense puts up points as expected and the defense punches and punishes with the discipline it needs, we’ll see a good win.
