The 2026 season was an interesting one for Jackson Kent. On one hand, he had quality numbers in the minor leagues and made his MLB debut. However, he also looked overmatched for most of his big league tenure, and did not exactly dominate in AAA. Kent has the ceiling of a solid number 4 starter, but has a lot of work to do in order to get there.
Coming into the season, Kent was one of those prospects to keep an eye on. He was not a big name, but he did some interesting things in his first pro season.
Despiteposting a 4.61 ERA across two levels, Kent struck out 25.9% of hitters and walked batters at a 7.5% clip. His changeup was his standout pitch, but he needed to add velocity.
That is exactly what Kent did heading into the season. His fastball went from the low-90’s to the mid-90’s. This increase in stuff helped Kent overwhelm AA hitters. He posteda 2.35 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 30.2 innings before quickly getting promoted to Rochester after 7 starts.
Kent’s stint in Rochester looked a lot like his minor league campaign last year. He struck out a lot of hitters, while keeping the walk rate in check. However, his ERA sat at 4.38 and he was plagued by some blowup starts. The advanced numbers painted a prettier picture, but he was still not exactly dominating the level.
Jackson Kent is not an overpowering arm, but his 5 pitch mix is solid. His go-to pitches are his 4-seamer, his slider and his changeup. Despite only sitting in the 93 MPH range, Kent’s fastball has good life. The best pitch in his arsenal is a tumbling changeup which gets a ton of chase and whiff. One thing about Kent is that he relies heavily on hitters expanding the zone.
His zone rate was below average in AAA, but it really became an issue in the big leagues. Kent only threw pitches in the strike zone at a 42.7% clip, which ranks in the 15th percentile. He actually got plenty of chases, but his inability to throw the ball in the strike zone led to a lot of walks.
Despite not having a walk problem in the minors, Kent issued 25 free passes in 36.1 MLB innings. That is a 14.7% walk rate, which is really bad. Without elite stuff, Kent was trying to nibble when he faced big league hitters. The best hitters in the world were also less willing to fall into Kent’s traps compared to minor leaguers.
For Jackson Kent to reach his ceiling, he will have to solve this problem. How can he get the ball in the zone more without allowing a ton of hard contact. There were times where he was spraying his pitches, especially in his first few starts. However, I think a lot of his walks were due to him being afraid to challenge hitters.
Whether it is improving his command, altering his pitch mix or finding extra velocity, Kent will need to change things up when he gets back to the big leagues. I would be surprised if he started the season on the big league roster, but when a pitcher inevitably goes down, he will be one of the first guys in line.
With his changeup and ability to generate ground balls, there is a path to Kent having success. He is a funky lefty with big extension and good enough stuff. That is a profile big league teams like. However, after posting a 5.94 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP, Kent will need to figure some things out.
That is not to say Kent had no moments of success. There was a start at home against the Marlins where Kent went 7 great innings. In that outing, he kept Miami’s hitters off balance all night and did a great job generating soft contact. Those sorts of outings are the blue print for Kent moving forward.
His path to success starts with getting quick ground outs and limiting hard contact. The changeup is a good weapon to put guys away when he does get to two strikes. Entering next season, Kent will need to learn to trust his stuff more. In his first taste of the big leagues, he was not very efficient and walked too many guys.
At just 23, Kent has plenty of time to figure things out. However, he showed that he is not ready to be trusted with a full time starting spot yet. It will be important for the Nats to acquire more starting pitchers and let Kent develop in the minors. He could be a piece in the future, but he is not there quite yet. I am intrigued to see what kind of strides he makes in 2027.
