The suddenly-hot Mets (72-61) have gotten themselves back into the race for the National League East title, and they’ll look to continue their recent upward trend as they host the Marlins (62-71) for a four-game series that begins tonight in Queens.
On Monday morning, the Mets were seven games back in the division, but thanks to a three-game sweep of the Phillies—capped by an outstanding performance by Nolan McLean in the series finale—they’re just four games back of first place. Had they played even somewhat
better in the second half of June and the first half of August, they’d probably still be in first place themselves, but the fact that the division is legitimately in play over the final four weeks of the season is exciting.
As for the Marlins, the team’s offense ranks 22nd in baseball with a 95 wRC+, a far cry from the Mets’ 112 wRC+ that ranks fourth. But pitching is even more of a problem, as Miami’s 4.58 ERA on the season ranks 25th. The Marlins have a couple of good starting pitchers going in this series, but neither their rotation as a whole or their bullpen have been good.
At the plate, the Marlins’ offense has revolved around breakout star Kyle Stowers, who is currently on the injured list with an oblique injury that could jeopardize the rest of his season. The 27-year-old has hit .288/.368/.544 with 25 home runs and a 149 wRC+ in 457 plate appearances before the injury, by far the best season of his major league career thus far.
In his absence, 24-year-old Jakob Marsee—a rookie who was traded to the Marlins by the Padres in the Luis Arráez trade—has been the start of the show. In 98 plate appearances since he was called up at the beginning of August, Marsee has hit .345/.408/.667 with four home runs and a 190 wRC+.
But there’s undoubtedly an opportunity here for the Mets to continue putting pressure on the Phillies. The Marlins aren’t nearly as bad as the Rockies or the A’s, but they are an inferior team that features a pitching staff that could be very vulnerable to the Mets’ lineup at the moment. It’s very hard to sweep a four-game series from any team, but the Mets’ goal here should absolutely be to win the series.
Thursday, August 28: Clay Holmes vs. TBD, 7:10 PM EDT on SNY
Holmes (2025): 137.1 IP, 109 K, 55 BB, 12 HR, 3.60 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 89 ERA-
Having made himself look incapable of remaining in the starting rotation for all of July and the first half of August, Holmes has bounced back nicely in his past two starts. He’s thrown 11.1 innings across those two starts with a 2.38 ERA and 2.77 FIP—numbers that look a lot more like his work in the first couple months of the season. Overall, the experiment to turn Holmes into a starter has been a success, but a transition to the bullpen for the playoffs—should the Mets clinch a spot—still might end up being the preferable route.
TBD
At the time of this writing, Roster Resource doesn’t have any starting pitcher projected to make this start.
Friday, August 29: Jonah Tong vs. Eury Pérez, 7:10 PM EDT on SNY
Tong
Having spent the vast majority of his season in Double-A Binghamton, Tong was dominant at the level and finally got promoted to Triple-A Syracuse relatively recently. After just two starts at that level, both of which went very well, he’s now set for his major league debut on what should be an electric Friday night at Citi Field, especially given the success that Nolan McLean and the Mets have had since McLean’s promotion.
Pérez (2025): 70.2 IP, 70 K, 25 BB, 7 HR, 3.44 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 80 ERA-
After missing the entire 2024 season because of Tommy John surgery, Pérez returned to the major league mound in early June. He hasn’t been quite as good as he was in his rookie campaign in 2023, but he’s come close to his 3.15 ERA that year through fourteen starts. His strikeout rate isn’t spectacular, but he’s pretty good at inducing ground balls and has decent walk and home run rates.
Saturday, August 30: David Peterson vs. Edward Cabrera, 4:10 PM EDT on WPIX
Peterson (2025): 150.0 IP, 135 K, 55 BB, 9 HR, 3.18 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 78 ERA-
Should the Mets make the playoffs, there could be an argument for starting one of the Mets’ rookies over everyone else at the beginning of a series, but Peterson has very clearly been the team’s ace, stopper, or whatever term you’d prefer to a team’s best starting pitcher. Now in his age-29 season, he’s a bit behind his 2.90 ERA pace from last season, but his strikeout and walk rates are both slightly better than they were last year.
Cabrera (2025): 124.2 IP, 136 K, 41 BB, 12 HR, 3.32 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 78 ERA-
This is Cabrera’s fifth season in the big leagues, and he’s already set a new single season high for innings pitched. He’s also pitching nearly as well as he did in 2022 by ERA, and his FIP suggests that what he’s doing is much more sustainable than his shinier ERA back then. Having drastically cut his walk rate this year, Cabrera has also done a better job of limiting home runs.
Sunday, August 31: Kodai Senga vs. TBD, 1:40 PM EDT on WPIX
Senga (2025): 108.2 IP, 103 K, 53 BB, 11 HR, 2.73 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 67 ERA-
As the season has gone along, Senga has maintained a good ERA despite his FIP consistently being much higher. The gap between the two has gotten smaller lately, though, as Senga has given up at least one run in each of his past seven starts while putting up a 6.10 ERA and averaging just 4.42 innings per start. The Mets’ promotion of Tong means that Senga will have had an extra day of rest before his start in the series finale, and when he’s been healthy, the Mets have really tried to give him that extra rest for most of his time with the team. Here’s hoping it helps him right the ship.
TBD
If the projections at Roster Resource turn out to be true, Sandy Alcantara will get the start in the series finale. He’s still sporting ugly numbers on the season with a 5.87 ERA and a 4.30 FIP, but he seems to finally be returning to from lately. Over his past three starts, Alcantara has a 1.80 ERA and a 2.72 FIP in 20.0 innings of work. He’s faced the Red Sox, Cardinals, and Braves over that span.
