A wise man, many years ago thought the scheduling of a series with James Madison may have been one of, if not THE worst scheduling decisions in the history of modern football. That man was me.
You know the story by now, but lets recap for those trying to catchup. The condensed version is that scheduling a very solid Power 5 program has major risks with very little reward. Beat up on the JMU Dukes and “congrats on doing what you’re supposed to do” echoes through the halls of the College Football landscape.
But lose to James Madison, a traditional power at the next level of the sport, and face ridicule and shame from all corners of the sport. Mississippi State fans, Northwestern, Wake Forest…even they all crawl out from their holes to mock and laugh before sliding back into obscurity. So why do it? Why submit yourself to this? Well, I thought long and hard about the various angles of this matchup and a name kept popping up in my head over and over (looking around cautiously from side to side, leans in and softly whispers)…..Rick Pitino (ducks).
Back in the heyday of scheduling wizardry one of the best to do it just so happened to roam the sidelines at the University of Louisville. You see, back when we were all much younger, wiser, and moderately more attractive, the college basketball world revolved around three key letters. R-P-I. This somewhat arbitrary rating system had a major influence in the world of college basketball and greatly dictated your national perception as a title contending team, or simply a team who was coasting on a Charmin soft schedule. So part of playing the game not only meant winning basketball games, but massaging the tool that told the world “who’s good” and “who’s not”. Pitino, for all his flaws knew that when you cracked open the RPI shell the innards of the sophisticated calculation weren’t all that sophisticated. A big driver in your overall score was not only your winning percentage but your opponents winning percentage, and your opponents opponents winning percentage. So in other words, win games, play good teams, but also play good teams who play good teams. So how do check all those boxes, and still try and win as many games as possible? You schedule some of the best mid-major competition you can find.
But John, one might say, how can you possibly find a correlation between an old rankings systems that hasn’t been used since the Clinton presidency, and not to mention, in case one hadn’t noticed…a system used in a completely different sport. Stay with me. We saw in Week 1 of the College Football schedule more Top 10 and Top 25 matchups than I can recall in quite some time. So why the sudden shift to ranked opponents instead of a ‘Nothing Bundt Cakes with fluffy frosting’ schedule of easy wins? Because who you play now matters. Look no further than FSU in 2023. Undefeated season, sans QB or no, the committee said the results weren’t good enough. “They ain’t play nobody, PAWL”. In contrast, look at 2024, where six teams made the playoff with two losses, but played tough competition in league or out of conference. Those losses, especially to other teams fighting for a playoff spot as well, were not severely punished. Playing good teams can offer a great boost, losing to good teams doesn’t immediately derail your season goals.
While the average fan may not spend their summer digging through Power Five rankings, James Madison is a very good team at that level, and will be squarely in the mix to compete for that P5 playoff spot as the season continues, win or lose Friday night. Many rankings systems have JMU predicted at 65% or greater odds to win nearly every game on the schedule after this week. Maybe they do, maybe they don’t, but if JMU is in the discussion come November, and the Cards are sitting there as well….our “resume” looks a lot better than having a 50 point win over WKU in the same time slot this Friday night. Perception matters.
Worst Case: Cards get shocked on Friday and lose to James Madison. Yes, you lost a game you should win, but hopes for the ACC are still fully alive, and the loss may be to a team competing for spot in the playoff. You get run out of the building, well, thoughts of playoffs were likely never realistic to begin with. It’s a early measuring stick.
Best Case: You handle JMU on Friday with ease, and if you slip up in the ACC you still have an outside shot at the playoff depending upon how you performed in conference to remain in the discussion. A conversation immediately closed if you only beat three directional schools in the non-conference. “Who did they beat” suddenly adds another playoff contending team to that tally, and you didn’t have to go play Tennessee or Arizona State for example, to have that added advantage.
The most important takeaway in all of this is that James Madison is a team which will force Louisville to get better. You can’t have the silly penalties from last week. You can’t throw 3 interceptions. You can’t put yourself behind the chains consistently. Improvements this week help the team get better as conference play begins. A guaranteed win is nice for the record books, but Brohm is trying to build a team to compete for championships, and that doesn’t happen by “ducking the smoke”. I know some disagree, some still think it’s far too risky, but for me…..I’ve changed my mind. Bring on the Dukes.
