The Seattle Seahawks are 4-4, just lost by 17 points to the Chicago Bears on Monday night, yet still have a +26 point differential. Turnovers have obviously been a huge factor in three of their four defeats, but a season-long issue for Seattle’s offense and defense has been seemingly unshakeable.
Neither unit is getting the job done in the red zone.
Seattle’s offense is one of the worst in the red zone
Seattle’s offense ranks a dismal 29th in red zone touchdown percentage, scoring just 13 TDs on 28 trips. If you look at points per red zone trip, which
obviously includes field goals, Seattle still ranks 29th. For whatever reason, even though red zone performance is supposedly a high-variance statistic, the Seahawks have not once fielded a top-16 offense in points per red zone possession in the post-Russell Wilson era. This is currently the worst Seahawks offense in the red zone since 2016, when they had a mostly injured Wilson at quarterback, a heavily injured running back unit, and an offensive line that was a total horror show.
While the red zone encompasses the 20-yard line and in, there’s an observation I’ve made throughout the season with Brian Fleury’s playcalling. When the Seahawks are faced with a goal-to-go situation, Fleury’s default move is to run the ball to mixed (at best) results. I’m not joking: 12 runs to 1 pass. The pass was a touchdown to Cooper Kupp in the hurry-up offense against the Washington Commanders, by the way.
No other team (at least using Stathead play-by-play data) is this run-heavy on first-and-goal than Seattle. Only the New York Giants and Cleveland Browns have thrown it once on first-and-goal. Last season, the Seahawks had a pass-run ratio of 14:19 on first-and-goal, and while the red zone offense was also lackluster under Klint Kubiak, they were not extraordinarily predictable.
The first-and-goal runs are not the main reason Seattle is a poor red zone offense, but it’s certainly a factor. We’ve seen very little play-action in the red zone on any down, and the Seahawks roster generally lacks a true “go up and get it” receiving target. That last bit is mostly opinion, but you can probably count the number of high-point catches made by Seahawks receivers on one hand this year—Jaxon Smith-Njigba included. It’s not a strength of this roster and it has to be something Seattle considers when it inevitably examines how to improve the offense next season.
Seattle’s red zone defense is the worst in the NFL
This part is stunning. The Seahawks defense as a whole is still playing very well, but they’re losing in the key situational areas at an alarming rate. They rank 32nd in red zone efficiency, conceding touchdowns on 15 of 18 possessions. Last year they were the fifth-best at preventing red zone touchdowns, and now they’re just bleeding them every trip.
By FTN’s DVOA, they are last in red zone pass, red zone rush, and goal-to-go situations. This probably would matter less if the Seahawks offense wasn’t performing so poorly regardless of where they are on the field, but Seattle is costing themselves wins with these weekly disparities.
And while this is a post about the red zone, the Seahawks defense is the worst 4th down unit in the NFL, giving up 10 of 11 conversions. It’s not the only area where they’ve fallen off.
Seattle became Super Bowl champions last season by “chasing edges” and winning the games within the game. The little things that add up to victories. They’re getting their asses kicked in the margins, and if the red zone performances don’t improve soon, they’ll find themselves missing the playoffs for the fourth time in six seasons.
