The Matchup: New Jersey Devils (24-21-2) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (29-15-4)
The Time: 7:00pm ET
The Broadcast: MSGSN, Devils Radio Network
Last Devils Game
The Devils returned home on Wednesday from a brutal road trip to host the Seattle Kraken. It took overtime, but the Devils won 3-2 to stretch their winning streak all the way to two. Nico Hischier scored twice, including the winner in OT.
Last Hurricanes Game
Carolina was in action last night when they hosted the Florida Panthers. In a close, back-and-forth game, the Hurricanes won 9-1.
Nikolaj Ehlers led the way with a hat trick.
Last Devils-Hurricanes Game
It happened on January 4, and it was a dismal 3-1 loss on home ice. This was the infamous game where Luke Hughes “scored” two own goals and many of the Devils fans in attendance that night responded by booing him every time he touched the puck after that.
Here We Go Again
Just as things are kind of, sort of, maybe, perhaps looking up for the Devils with wins in their last two games, here comes their Achilles heel: The Carolina Hurricanes. They’ve lost both games they’ve played to them this season by a combined score of 9-4. They went 2-2 against them last regular season but of course lost in five games to the Canes in the playoffs. They lost in five to them in 2023 as well, meaning they are 2-8 in the postseason versus Carolina since 2023. For a multitude of reasons, the Devils simply cannot find a way to consistently win games against the Hurricanes.
The win over Minnesota at the end of the road trip was a nice change of pace from the constant losing, and the win against the Kraken has allowed a glimmer of hope to reenter the picture. But that can all be taken away if New Jersey loses tonight. Maybe if the Devils outshoot the Hurricanes something like 40-22, dominate them in all the advanced metrics, and overall look like the far superior team, but STILL lose, that might be the only defeat that New Jersey could feel good about. They could say that luck just wasn’t on their side tonight but if they continue playing like that they will win many more games than they will lose.
But even in that “best-case scenario”, it would sting. New Jersey is out of the playoff picture at the moment with several teams in front of them, many of which have a game or two in hand. There is still plenty of season left, but if we’re being honest, the hole New Jersey has dug themselves might even be too deep for the large amount of games they have left. They need points, and they need them in bunches. Now. Getting two of them against the team that has bullied them around the past few seasons would maybe send a message to the rest of the league that the Devils are back. We can only hope.
Dougie Domination
Dougie Hamilton has now played two games since his unceremonious benching last weekend, and he has spent those two games making everyone who decided to bench him look like a complete stooge. In the win over Minnesota, Hamilton posted an utterly incredible Game Score (and the top mark on the team) according to Hockey Stat Cards, and posted a 5-on-5 Expected Goals For% around 70% according to Natural Stat Trick. Then last time out against the Kraken, Hamilton again led the team in Game Score while posting an absurd 81.65 xGF%. If the fancy stats aren’t your cup of tea, can I interest you in three points in those two games as well?
On Monday, I wrote what was essentially a long soliloquy on Hamilton’s time in New Jersey. I wrote that piece because I thought in the wake of his benching, the end was nigh and a trade was imminent. Hamilton might still very well be traded, but seeing him absolutely crush souls the last two games makes me look like a fool for writing about him as if he played his last game in a Devils sweater. And you know what, I’m happy to look foolish here! Hamilton has not produced at anywhere near the clip we expect of him this year. To be fair, a lot of this seems to do with his strange usage this season, in which he’s being deployed like a shutdown defenseman (and he’s even performing pretty well in that role anyway). If Keefe starts giving Hamilton some usage that actually fits his skillset, we might see the return of the real Dougie Hamilton, the one we saw in 2022-23. Perhaps that even starts tonight. And if that’s the case, that will make this whole saga look so bizarre in retrospect.
Hamilton has been absolutely dealing in his last two games. If the Devils are going to win tonight, Hamilton will need to make it three in a row. He is the most important Devils defenseman at the moment.
Luke On The Rise?
Another big part of the blue line, Luke Hughes, is starting to show signs of life as well. Hughes’ season has of course been a big disappointment, as he hasn’t been able to rack up points or drive play to the level that any of us wanted.
Well much like Hamilton, Hughes has been quite good over the last two games. He posted excellent Game Scores against Minnesota and Seattle, and he racked up a 5-on-5 xGF% of 76% (Minnesota) and 55% (Seattle). As far as traditional stats, he registered a pair of assists against the Kraken. It’s only two games, which is obviously much too small of a sample size to say whether he’s arrived or not. But for now at least, he appears to be headed in the right direction again.
It’s also important to note that Hughes has been showing real growth offensively, as Todd Cordell notes over at Infernal Access. So while his defensive game is sorely lacking this season, Hughes is taking real steps as an offensive driver. He’s far from perfect, and the Devils certainly need more out of him now that he’s exited his ELC and is getting paid like a top-flight defenseman. Much like Hamilton, if Hughes can continue playing like a true number one, the Devils will start winning a lot more games going forward.
The Plan For The Blue Line
So now that Johnny Kovacevic is finally back, New Jersey has their full complement of defenseman available for the first time all season long. That means that the Devils have seven blueliners for six spots. We’ve seen Hamilton healthy scratched. We’ve seen Kovacevic get some rest. And now it’s Simon Nemec’s turn to hit the press box:
(As a quick aside, some minor news: The Devils waived Juho Lammikko and Colton White this week. So this might be the last time you see Lammikko’s name at a Devils practice).
Stein also quoted Keefe about the situation, and he was very noncommittal about it. He seemed to imply that Nemec will find his way back into the lineup soon, but that begs the question, for who? Is it just going to be a rotation between Hamilton, Kovacevic, and Nemec the rest of the way? Is Brett Pesce immune to coming out of the lineup if he’s healthy? Would any of the left-handed defensemen draw out with a righty playing on his off-hand? These are the questions we don’t have answers to yet, but will presumably get answers to soon.
But there is one more option…
Bench Glendening
Please take a look at this:
Luke Glendening has been a gigantic net negative for the Devils this season. Every single time he steps on the ice, he immediately puts New Jersey on the defensive. According to Natural Stat Trick, Glendening is sporting some absolutely horrific 5-on-5 numbers:
Corsi For%: 40.22
Scoring Chances For%: 35.46
High Danger Corsi For%: 35.83
Expected Goals For%: 36.85
Even if you don’t believe in advanced metrics, Glendening surely isn’t impressing you with his zero goals and four assists in 47 games played so far. He has exactly two uses: penalty killing and faceoff acumen. I would argue that the juice isn’t worth the squeeze for either of those skills. No matter how you look at it, Glendening has been a huge drag on this team from day one.
So with that being the case, the solution to the sudden overflow of defensemen is simple: Go 11-7 and scratch Glendening. That way, none of the defensemen on the roster have to sit, Glendening doesn’t have to play, and it allows you to give some extra shifts to the top players. Seems like a win-win all around.
Will New Jersey actually do that? If they haven’t done it yet, I don’t have confidence they’ll do it anytime soon. I can only hope they come to this relatively obvious conclusion soon.
Your Take
What do you make of this game? Will New Jersey finally get in the win column against the Hurricanes? Do you think Hamilton and/or Hughes will keep up their recent form? Do you agree that going 11-7 might be the best way to go for now? As always, thanks for reading!
