On Monday, I covered the position player depth. My bad on not including Thomas Saggese at shortstop. Even though I think I’m lower on his defense there than most, the Cardinals do clearly consider him SS depth, so he should have been listed. Today, I want to address the pitching depth. I’ll take a different approach with the pitching.
First, let’s talk about the ideal pitching depth heading into a season. For your #1, you want somebody where there’s not a debate that they’re an ace. This hasn’t been
a thing for the Cardinals since the 2nd half of 2019, and then Jack Flaherty got hurt. Before that, it was probably Adam Wainwright once Chris Carpenter retired. It’s been a minute. (Carlos Martinez topped out at 3.3 fWAR, so I think he falls short of this standard)
For your #2, think Tyler Glasnow as the prototype. The unreliable “ace” if you will. I actually think the last month or so of Dustin May is pretty much this. We can’t really trust him, but he’s pitching like an ace. The true ideal is of course having both Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, but one thing at a time here. Your #3 is…. Michael McGreevy honestly. He’s exactly what I imagine a perfect #3 to be. Someone whose numbers will probably be more reflective of a #2 because of the amount of innings they pitch.
And then your #4 is your hotshot prospect who hasn’t quite put it together yet, and your #5 is the 2026 version of an innings eater. I say 2026 version, because this pitcher will get taken out fairly early in the game sometimes just because taking him out helps you win, but if you’re blowing out a team, they’ll probably go 6. If they get roughed up early, they’ll still throw 5 innings. The Cardinals have my ideal #5 too: Andre Pallante. I wish he was more fun to watch, because yeah he’s a perfect #5 starter.
He’s not a hotshot prospect, but Kyle Leahy’s season is kind of like what I’d expect a season from said hotshot prospect looks like. Can’t quite make it through 3rd time through the order, shows flashes. Leahy is 29 so it’s very much not the same and I still expect him to move to the bullpen, but his season is more or less the expectation for a first-time pitcher.
Again, I’m speaking in generalizations and rarely will a starting rotation look like my ideal rotation. Matthew Liberatore doesn’t fit neatly into my categories right now, but I would say the fully realized Liberatore, if it ever comes, looks a lot like my #3. If he manages that, good chance between McGreevy and Liberatore, you still get a #2 production out of one of them. Hunter Dobbins is in the same boat. He might fit my #3 definition, he might fit my #5 definition.
Behind this group is an MLB ready starter who you want in the major leagues, but nobody has gotten hurt yet. Hunter Dobbins this year, Michael McGreevy last year. Unfortunately, a lot of times in this plan, your sixth starter will look better than at least one of your top five, but it’s just kind of a necessary safeguard in today’s game. On Opening Day, I want there to be at least one starting pitcher in Memphis who I really wish was in St. Louis. You’ve crafted good depth if that’s the case.
Your 7th guy on the depth chart has extensive AAA experience and even if you don’t think they’re quite ready, they’ve been in AAA long enough that they’d probably still benefit from MLB starts. You don’t consider it rushing. Think Quinn Mathews. If Mathews had to be added to the 40 man before the season, he’d have probably made his MLB debut already. And lastly, your 8 and 9 guys on the depth chart are legitimate pitching prospects who you hope will be ready by midseason. One of their seasons will go well, the others will not. Think Ixan Henderson and Brycen Mautz.
So, you have your ace, your flawed ace, your bulk inning #3, your struggling prospect, and your innings eater. Your 6th guy is ready right now, and maybe he fits the bulk inning role, maybe he fits the struggling prospect role. You have your experienced AAA starter, and then two pitching prospects at least a half season away (and probably more than that). And I’m not willing to define depth beyond that.
So going forward, let’s try to map out possibilities. You already have my picture of the 2026 depth, so let’s look beyond 2026. For this exercise, we will act like the Cardinals will make no free agent signings or trades. That’s a good way to get a picture of the depth. And then we might know if we need free agents or trades. After the player’s name will be their service time entering that season.
2027
Possible projected rotation: Matthew Liberatore (3.144), Michael McGreevy (1.091), Andre Pallante (4.145), Hunter Dobbins (1.131)*, Quinn Mathews (0.030)*
6th guy: Richard Fitts (0.164)
Yes, I will once again point out I am not a Kyle Leahy in the rotation believer. I’m moving him back to the bullpen for 2027. I’m probably trading Andre Pallante, just because Dobbins and Fitts seem like natural replacements for him. I’m signing and/or trading for a starting pitcher, one who is better than Michael McGreevy. But again this is a depth exercise. If they don’t actually get another starter, I think Pallante would have to come back unless you’re rolling with Liam Doyle on Opening Day.
Other starters to see MLB time: Tekoah Roby, Ixan Henderson, Pete Hansen, Brycen Mautz, Liam Doyle, Cooper Hjerpe
Using purely internal depth is not so great for ceiling in 2027 specifically, but the pitching depth at large looks extremely strong. I’m listing Hjerpe because some of you believe in him, so that was an attempt to leave my bias out of it. But yeah my personal expectation is 100 percent in the bullpen. I feel comfortable not listing Tink Hence as SP depth at the moment unfortunately. I think Mautz has a good opportunity to put himself in the 6th guy role too for 2027. They could make some trades to clear out the clutter a little if they want. Of course injuries usually solves these issues.
*I am speculating on the service time of Dobbins and Mathews. Dobbins would need to not get sent down again to reach that number, but the important info is between 1 and 2 years of service. Same for Mathews: I expect a little MLB service time.
2028
Possible projected rotation: Matthew Liberatore (4.144), Michael McGreevy (2.091), Hunter Dobbins/Richard Fitts, Quinn Mathews (1.030), Liam Doyle (0.030)
6th guy: Jurrangelo Cjintje
Other starters to see MLB time: Brycen Mautz, Braden Davis, Mason Molina, Tanner Franklin, Jacob Odle, Brandon Clarke
And I just realized how impossible this exercise is. I think Tekoah Roby to the bullpen is a safe bet, but between him, Clarke and Hjerpe, I mean one of those dudes will stick at starter. That I happen to believe it will be Roby is almost irrelevant. But I realized crafting this rotation that there’s going to be a prospect I have to ignore. Then there’s the fact that Franklin might be ready by 2028 too. Are we still going to be messing with Hunter Dobbins or Richard Fitts in the rotation if the potential of Franklin, Doyle, Roby, Clarke, and Hjerpe is still starting at this point? Probably not right? But they have a bunch of team control.
Anyway, I definitely don’t think Pallante lasts until 2028. He’s eligible for free agency after the 2028 season. I think the version of Liberatore who pans out is safe until 2028, just because in this version, he’s a stable hand and you want a stable hand in the rotation. Maybe when players like Doyle and Franklin establish themselves more fully, that’s the point where you look for a trade.
2029
Possible projection rotation: Michael McGreevy (3.091), Quinn Mathews (2.030), Liam Doyle (1.030), Jurrangelo Cjintje (1.040), Tanner Franklin (0.050)
6th guy: Yhoiker Fajardo
We’re in pick a name of out of a hat status here, but if the pitching prospects remotely go the way the Cardinals want them to go, I think Liberatore is traded before the 2029 season. I think Liberatore is safe for next season, somewhat in danger after, but I don’t think enough names will be established by the beginning of the 2028 season and then either he has taken a leap forward or he’s in that #3/#5 and is someone you can trade. Or he gets injured like every other pitcher. Who knows? But yeah the names at this point aren’t specifically important, pick whoever your favorite prospects are. The high potential starting pitching prospects are either in the starting rotation or full-time relievers by 2029 though. Or traded honestly.
And I’ll stop there, because there’s just too many directions this could go. But that gives a pretty good picture of how much this depth may stack up in the upcoming years and it’ll be interesting to see who sticks at starter, who moves to the bullpen, who is traded, who flames out. It’s important to remember: no so such thing as too many pitching prospects. Which is a good thing to remind oneself looking at the Cardinals’ system, because there are a lot of them.
