Bobby Marks recently wrote on ESPN about rookie/veteran contract extension candidates he is keeping an eye on, with one of them being perennially injured Mavericks center Dereck Lively II. It got me thinking, not only about what a Lively extension could look like, but what extensions might make sense for several players on our roster. The Mavericks have multiple players who are eligible for contract extensions, but the two I’m really looking at are Dereck Lively and Max Christie.
So, what do extensions
look like for these two?
Dereck Lively
In his ESPN piece, Bobby Marks proposed “Three years, $35 million. The first-year, $10.8 million salary is comparable to the one-year qualifying offer Lively is eligible for next summer if an extension is not reached. The second year is guaranteed, but the third is contingent on Lively playing at least 41 games in the first or second season of the contract.”
Dereck Lively is such a difficult player to figure out when it comes to an extension.
If he were healthy and consistently playing, his extension would probably start with a 2 – or even a 3 – when talking about his annual salary. But, obviously, that hasn’t been the case. With Lively likely to miss the start of the season, would he accept a deal in this range?
From the Mavericks’ perspective, this is almost a no-brainer. They would be taking a relatively small financial swing on a player who, when healthy, has shown to be a starting-caliber center for a finals team.
At $10.8 million in the first year, Lively would be the eighth-highest-paid player on the roster, potentially ninth depending on what happens with Max Christie. That’s a pretty manageable number for a player with his upside. For Lively’s camp, however, the decision is a little more complicated.
The appeal is obvious: guaranteed money.
Lively would be giving up the opportunity to bet on himself and potentially enter next offseason as a much more expensive player, but in exchange he would be locking in several years of guaranteed money while still being young enough to cash in later.
If Lively puts together two healthy seasons, the extension is short enough he could still negotiate another extension while he is in his prime. The question is whether the security is worth giving up the potential upside.
That’s the gamble for both sides.
Max Christie
In his training camp interviews, Max Christie has hinted that some conversations have taken place about a possible extension, although nothing concrete has been reached yet. When the trade that we do not speak of happened, the Twitterverse spent the first month calling it the Max Christie trade.
Christie has had his ups and downs during his time in Dallas, but he has also shown plenty of promise. Last season, he averaged a career-high 12.3 PPG while shooting 40% from three on 5.8 attempts per game. The shooting alone is a much-needed skill for this Mavericks roster.
But what makes an extension interesting is that the shooting may not be the only part of his game that is improving. During his limited preseason action, Christie has shown progress as a driver, playmaker and point-of-attack defender. Dusty May has even mentioned that Max is poised for a breakout season. If that’s the case, an extension now could end up being a considerable discount compared to what Christie could command next offseason.
So what would a deal look like that makes sense for both sides?
The number that makes the most sense to me starts around the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which would be worth roughly $65 million over four years next offseason. At just over $16 million per year, that feels pretty close to Christie’s current market value. But if I’m Dallas, I’m paying him early because I want to eliminate the risk of his value going up.
That’s why I would be comfortable going up to four years, $70 million. That’s roughly $17.5 million per year, and I think it makes sense for both sides.
The Mavericks lock up a young player who has already shown improvement and still has room to grow. They also get cost certainty and avoid having to compete with the rest of the league for his services next summer.
Christie, meanwhile, gets a solid raise and more guaranteed money than he would likely get on the open market. If he has the breakout season many around the organization expect, $70 million could look like a bargain for Dallas. If he doesn’t, the contract is still reasonable enough that it shouldn’t prevent the Mavericks from continuing to build around Cooper Flagg.
Bet on Yourself or Take the Money?
That’s ultimately the decision facing both Lively and Christie.
For Lively, the risk is much greater. His talent could eventually earn him a significantly larger contract, but his health makes that future far from guaranteed. Taking a deal like the one Marks proposed would give him financial security while still allowing him to enter another payday relatively early in his career.
Christie’s situation is almost the opposite. He has already shown enough to have a reasonable market value, but he also has a chance to increase that value with a breakout season.
For the Mavericks, the calculation is simple: How much are you willing to pay today to avoid paying significantly more tomorrow?
I’d be willing to make that bet on both players. For Lively, I would strongly consider Marks’ three-year, $35 million framework, even if the final year isn’t contingent on games played. For Christie, I’d be willing to go a little more aggressive and offer four years, $70 million. Neither deal is without risk. That’s the entire point of an extension. The player is trading some potential future earnings for guaranteed money, while the team is betting that the player will outperform the contract.
Whether either extension actually happens remains to be seen.
For both players, the next season could dramatically change the equation. They can bet on themselves and potentially make significantly more money, or they can also struggle and cost themselves.
The Mavericks are in the early stages of building what they hope will be a contender around Cooper Flagg. Finding the right supporting pieces is only half the battle; keeping those players at the right price is just as important. Lively and Christie both have a chance to be part of that future. I’d be willing to bet on both of them now.
