Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, October 25 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN2
- Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium — Memphis, TN
- Spread: South Florida (-6.5)
- Over/under: 58.5
- All-time series: Memphis leads, 9-4
- Last meeting: Memphis 21, South Florida 3 — October 12, 2024
- Current streak: Memphis, 4 (2019-24)
Setting the scene
Memphis and South Florida fans envisioned this as the American Conference’s premier matchup. The College GameDay buses were potentially on their way to Memphis for the first time since 2019 in anticipation of this ranked vs. ranked matchup with conference title and College Football Playoff stakes. What was slated to be a party on Beale Street instead turned into a different kind of blues.
Memphis lost its undefeated record in the most jarring fashion, falling as 23.5-point favorites at UAB — fresh
off UAB firing head coach Trent Dilfer. The Tigers were unable to punch the ball in from the 1-yard line in the final minute, concluding their FBS-best 10-game win streak — watching an undefeated season and a ranking slip away.
But Memphis isn’t done yet, just like one loss didn’t deter current No. 18 South Florida. Two of the American’s top contenders collide at the Liberty Bowl in a game with stakes that may be felt in December.
South Florida Bulls outlook
South Florida (6-1, 3-0 American) is on a tear right now. The Bulls checked in at No. 18 in the AP Poll after back-to-back ranked victories over Boise State and Florida to start the year. Then they faced immense adversity in a 37-point road loss to Miami (FL) and still found their way back to No. 18. That’s because South Florida is straight-up dominating everything in its path right now, winning four-straight by a combined score of 228-89 (57-22 per game). Among those wins is a 63-36 road victory at North Texas, which is otherwise an unblemished 6-0.
After 228 points across four games, it’s no surprise South Florida ranks seventh in the FBS in scoring and 13th in total offense. The architect behind it all is third-year starting quarterback Byrum Brown, who is blessed with a clean slate of health and playing his best ball to date. Brown is the definition of a dual-threat quarterback. His 2023 campaign was South Florida’s best passing season in program history, and he’s on track for an even better 2025 with 1,695 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and five interceptions through seven starts.
But Brown is equally as lethal as a runner, averaging 118 rushing yards across his last three outings — hitting a career-high 162 to usher in the month of October. He is as escapable as they come, consistently turning potential sacks into electrifying first down plays. Brown has a 200-yard advantage on USF’s next leading rusher, but the Bulls feature a talented running back stable despite not having a feature back. Sam Franklin, Alvon Isaac, and Nykahi Davenport all share the reins equally, toting the rock 44, 43, and 42 times, respectively, with similar yardage outputs. Overall, it creates the 16th-best rushing offense in college football, ranking one spot and six yards below Memphis.
South Florida is more productive through the air, and the Bulls are led by a triumvirate of downfield threats. Chas Nimrod and Jeremiah Koger pick up over 20 yards per catch while Keshaun Singleton averages 16.5. This trio combines for 10 receiving touchdowns on the year, and they’re all capable of burning solo coverage to get open on streaks or deep posts.
Alex Golesh’s high-tempo offense has always thrived to some level at South Florida. The reason this year is different is because the Bulls are playing a more intense, physical form of defense than ever before. USF is tied for first in the FBS in turnover production, collecting 17 takeaways through seven games (10 interceptions, 7 fumble recoveries). The linebacking duo of Jhalyn Shuler and Mac Harris is the center of it all, and neither player’s season stat-line looks real. Shuler has 61 tackles, 5.0 tackles for loss, one interception, four pass breakups, two fumble recoveries, and a scoop-and-score touchdown. Harris has 56 tackles, 7.0 tackles for loss, a pick-six, and three forced fumbles.
USF indeed wields a 125th ranking in pass defense, but this alarming statistic is widely-neutralized by the defense’s frequent havoc plays.
Memphis Tigers outlook
Memphis (6-1, 2-1 American) must recover. The Tigers were on the wrong end of arguably the most stunning result of the 2025 college football season in a game both Memphis and UAB fans likely overlooked as a comfortable Tiger victory. But Memphis lost to UAB and now must resonate in the feeling of defeat, yet not let it impact its quest for a first American Conference title since 2019.
Memphis lost more than an undefeated season in Birmingham. In the third quarter, starting quarterback Brendon Lewis suffered a lower-body injury and never returned. Ryan Silverfield chose AJ Hill to finish the contest, and Hill finished 13-of-25 with 171 yards with one touchdown and one interception in his first action to date. Lewis remains day-to-day, and he’ll be needed not just for his veteran presence, but for his dual-threat tendencies. He ranks 12th among quarterbacks with 440 rushing yards, averaging 5.1 yards per carry and picking up seven rushing touchdowns.
The run game is the focal point of Memphis’ offense. Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers Jr. are both explosive backs with breakaway tendencies. They both won a Doak Walker Award National Running Back of the Week and average 6.4 and 6.8 yards per carry, respectively. Each component of the tandem is frequently utilized in the screen game as well, and the two are responsible for 12 total touchdowns this year. Memphis will lean heavily on Smith and Desrosiers if Lewis is limited or unable to go, attempting to win this in a ground affair.
Through the air, Memphis still can thrive through Cortez Braham Jr. The Nevada transfer has a tendency to appear on highlight reels with one-handed or spectacular contested catches. He is responsible for five of the Tigers’ nine receiving touchdowns and leads the team with 29 receptions and 491 yards. Jamari Hawkins serves as the secondary option in the receiving game, and both are big-time playmakers — each averaging 16.5+ yards per reception.
The most uncharacteristic performance vs. UAB belonged to Memphis’ defense, allowing a season-high 31 to the Blazers. The passing defense permitted an efficient 251 yards and three touchdowns, but the run defense was equally as rough. Prior to last Saturday, the Tigers fielded one of the premier run defenses in the country, and they still rank 24th nationally with a per game allotment of 106.7 yards on a 3.5 average. They even won the turnover battle against UAB 2-1, making the defensive performance even more puzzling.
Memphis’ top defensive talent resides at linebacker. Drue Watts and Sam Brumfield rank first and second on the unit in tackles, combining for 13.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. Two defining traits of the defense are negative plays and takeaways — ranking top 15 in the FBS in both tackles for loss (7.1 per game) and turnover margin (+6).
Prediction
Nobody is stopping South Florida’s offense at the moment. Miami (FL) and Florida reasonably contained it, but since those matchups, Byrum Brown has caught fire and won’t look back. South Florida can attack opponents in a multitude of ways, and its tempo and explosiveness make a dangerous combination for opposing defenses. Memphis’ defense held strong against the run until last week and it could see a bounce-back in that department. The Tigers’ other edge in this game is homefield advantage, playing at a venue where they’ve won 11 in a row.
But Brendon Lewis’ health adds a question mark to the picture, which may increase the difficulty of outlasting the USF offense in shootout form. Memphis has been prone to allowing explosives, and that’s the specialty of this South Florida team.
Prediction: South Florida 42, Memphis 31
