The Basics
Team: Florida State Seminoles
Location: Tallahassee, Florida
Enrollment: 29,333
Head Coach: Mike Norvell (36-31)
Record: 3-4 (0-4)
Wins: Alabama, ETAMU, Kent State
Losses: UVA, Miami, Pitt, Stanford
Transfer
portal rank: 6th (8 4-star, 15 3-star)
After a big win over SMU last weekend, the Deacs are on the road to take on a Florida State team that is yet to win an ACC game. With the Noles potentially on the verge of a coaching change after losing their last 4 games, the media narrative around the program may be giving off the impression that they are much worse than they actually are. They may not be a playoff contender this season, but they are really a few plays away from being 7-0 or 6-1.
Yes, the Noles are 0-4 in the ACC so far, but 2 of those losses are to #10 Miami and #15 UVA (in 2 OT), 1 is to 6-2 Pitt (4-1 in the ACC), and 1 is on the road at Stanford. That Stanford loss is pretty bad, but east coast teams have struggled quite a bit playing on the west coast over the past could of years. While that definitely does not live up to FSU’s lofty standards, this is not a terrible team by any means.
Offense
Points per game: 39.7 (9th)
Yards per game: 523.3 (2nd)
Run/pass split: 63/37
Rush yards per game: 254.3 (6th)
Pass yards per game: 269.0 (30th)
3rd down conversions: 52% (10th)
Sacks allowed per game: 1.43 (45th)
Turnovers per game: 1.4 (93rd)
On the surface, the stats above definitely make it seem like FSU is an offensive juggernaut this season. Those numbers are, thankfully, heavily skewed by a 77-point outing against FCS ETAMU and a 66-point outing against Kent State. In those 2 games, the Noles averaged 69.5 points, 752 total yards, 430 rushing yards, and 322 passing yards per game. In their other 5 games (all against P4 opponents), Florida State is significantly less dominant on offense, averaging 27 points, 431 total yards, 184 rushing yards, and 247 passing yards per game.
The other thing that jumps off the page is how much Florida State runs the ball, with almost 65% of their plays staying on the ground. A big part of that is a true dual threat QB in Thomas Castellanos, who is the second leading rusher on the team with 79 carries for 319 yards (4 ypc) and 5 rushing touchdowns. Back in his sophomore season at BC, Castellanos finished the season 3rd in the ACC in rushing and rushing touchdowns with over 1,100 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns—the only other QB Wake has faced with that level of running ability this season was Georgia Tech’s Haynes King, and he ran for 106 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Deacs.
The rest of the Seminole ground attack is a bit of a group effort–the Noles have 5 players (excluding QB Castellanos) with over 100 rushing yards this season. Oklahoma transfer Gavin Sawchuk is at the top of that group with 422 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns this season .
In the passing game, Castellanos is currently completing 60% of his passes for 1,607 yards, 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He has a bit of a gunslinger mentality and loves to go for the homerun play whenever he can–he is currently leading the ACC in both yards per attempt and yards per completion, meaning a lot of his completions come on big chunk plays down the field. His playmaking ability combined with the confidence that he can make every throw have led to some truly astonishing passing plays for the Noles this season.
Of course, throwing up 50-50 balls even when off balance also has some drawbacks.
Castellanos’s main target this season has been USC transfer Duce Robinson, who has caught a team high 29 passes for 541 yards and 3 touchdowns this season. Probably the biggest threat at receiver, though, is redshirt freshman Micahi Danzy. Danzy is one of the fastest players in the nation, as evident by the fact that he set the ACC record in the 400m this spring with a time of 44.38. The Noles have made good use of that speed in both the air and ground–Danzy currently leads the ACC in yards per reception (22.9) and has 604 total yards and 5 total TD in 7 games.
Castellanos took a pretty gnarly head shot at the end of the Stanford game, so there is a question about his availability for Saturday’s game. Mike Norvell said he was “very confident” in the QBs progress, but that could pretty much mean anything. If he does play, the Deacs should try to force Castellanos to stay in the pocket and take away the deep ball, they may be able to frustrate him by making him to move slowly down the field with short throws when he would much rather be slinging it deep. That could lead to him risking some deep balls into double coverage, which Wake should take advantage of, given how good the passing defense has been this season.
Defense
Points allowed per game: 22.6 (53)
Yards allowed per game: 327.3 (35th)
Rush yards allowed per game: 118.6 (33)
Pass yards allowed per game: 208.7 (49)
3rd down defense: 35% (37th)
Sacks per game: 2.57 (29th)
Turnovers Forced per game: 1.3 (65th)
On defense, the Seminole secondary has been a weak point so far this season. In the 4 game losing streak, FSU has allowed their opponents to complete nearly 70% of their passes for 238 yards per game. That includes a game where Miami QB Carson Beck threw for 4 touchdowns and a game where Pitt QB Mason Heintschel completed 72% of his passes for 321 yards.
Unfortunately, the Deacs have really not very much success throwing the ball down the field this season, so they may not have the same kind of success against the Noles. SMU was among the worst passing defenses in the nation going into last week’s game, and Wake was completely unable to take advantage of it in that game. Tackling has seemingly been an issue for FSU this season, so Wake may be better off going back to relying heavily on screens and swing passes to just get the ball in a playmaker’s hands to see if he can break a few tackles.
On the ground, the Seminoles have been much better, giving up just 118 yards per game rushing. They have allowed an opponent to run for over 150 yards just twice this season: 211 yards to UVA in a 2 OT loss and 155 yards to Pitt in a loss. Florida State doesn’t have a dominant defensive line that SMU, but they switched to a 3-3-5 base defense in the off season when they hired Tony White at the end of last season, so the unique look could give the Deacs some trouble. The 3-3-5 tends to favor speed over size to attack the offensive gaps, so Wake will want to watch out for linebackers like Blake Nichelson (4.5 TFL) and Justin Cryer (4 TLF) penetrating into the backfield and blowing up run plays.
Wake Forest is 3-19 in Tallahassee since 1960. The Seminoles haven’t beaten Wake Forest in Doak Campbell since 2018 (only 1 game, but it still sounds crazy). Despite the sentiment surrounding FSU right now, they still have a roster full of very talented players and is still the team that beat Alabama in week 1. If Wake is going to pull off the upset (currently around a 9.5-point underdog), they are probably going to have to rely heavily on the defense and keep the score as low as possible. A track meet with a team full of 4 and 5-star players would not be ideal.
