Manifesting a Logan Webb trade

Important starting note: I am not — NOT! — Brian Murphy from KNBR. Never have been!

Back in December, I cautioned that nobody should want the San Francisco Giants to trade Logan Webb. Then I laid out all the reasons why the Giants would even consider it and when the best time for such an unthinkable move might be. At the time, I didn’t consider the possibility that the major league roster would go belly up, so my conclusion that this coming offseason would be the best time (should the team hover around

.500 again) was wrong because now is the best time.

I didn’t want the Giants to trade Logan Webb then, but I do now. And I think you should want them to do it, too.

Now, there are many arguments for and against this, and I’ll lay them out in a moment; but, the main thing is that history is repeating itself in a somewhat eerie way. This isn’t exactly the situation Farhan Zaidi found himself in with Madison Bumgarner when he took over at the end of 2018 or throughout the 2019 season, but it’s in the ballpark. The dirt bike accident had accelerated the wear and tear on his shoulder that had already been burdened by his workload. In the 2018 offseason, MLB.com asked if this was the right moment for the Giants to trade Bumgarner because this would be his maximum value heading into his final year under contract.

Bumgarner had thrown 573.1 more innings (1,638.1 regular season + 102.1 postseason) to that point in his career than Logan Webb has as of today (1,152.2 regular season + 14.2 postseason), but that’s more of an illustration of physicality than raw talent. Bumgarner is bigger and started his MLB time sooner (19 vs. 22).

The Giants didn’t move Bumgarner because he was a franchise icon and World Series hero. To move him would be to signal surrender or that the team didn’t expect to be competitive heading into or during the season. Or, that it would be a shameful way to end his Giants career. Same thinking that compelled the Giants to hold on to Carlos Rodon in 2022. Or maybe there wasn’t the right return for those guys, which acted as the most compelling reason to hold on to Bumgarner and simply let him walk at season’s end and hold on to Rodon in case the team got hot down the stretch (they did not).

So, the 50,000 foot view of the matter comes down to this: if you think the Giants can be good soon (insert your own definition of “soon”), then you can’t imagine why the Giants would want to trade Logan Webb. If you are considering other things like the current win-loss record, the age of the roster (especially the lineup core), and the weight of the last decade of failure/mediocrity, then you probably have a more open mind to trading the guy who is, without question, the face of the franchise. The Perfect Giant.

Why the Giants should trade Logan Webb

1. The Giants are bad

At some point, somebody running the Giants has to take a long view with the roster. The team has been in a “Win Now!” mode for most of the last 15 years. The only real, public power down/reset they’ve had this century was in that 2005-2008 range where they stuck with the idea of “Hmm, maybe Barry Bonds is all we need to draw fans right now” before transitioning to a post-Bonds situation.

And then they entered a competitive window and tried to keep that exact cell of success going for as long as possible. They hired Farhan Zaidi with the thought that the transition from that time period to the next competitive window would be mercilessly brief thanks to “analytics,” or whatever, a notion that’s not without merit and bore fruit only a few years later with a miraculous fluke of a season in 2021.

But the analytics guy got too myopic and the roster’s performance stagnated and that led to the Giants considering Buster Posey as the one neat trick to fix the entire organization. And here we are.

The Giants are one of the worst teams in the sport. Their only hope is the farm system developing on the level of the one he was a part of right before the team became champions. That’s a big gamble, and it might not come to fruition for a couple of years. The other gamble is that a lot of the players currently on the team play better.

Well, that’s a lot of gambling and not a lot of certainty. Baseball is a sport that laughs at certainty, of course, but when it’s there, it makes sense to cling to it. Logan Webb is about as certain of a #1 starter as it gets in MLB, so trading him doesn’t make a lot of sense for a team that’s trying to compete.

But by Buster Posey’s own words, the team’s performance has necessitated a reconsideration of that belief. They’re open to trading everybody except Logan Webb. Maybe that’s posturing to drive up the offers, but let’s assume it isn’t, because the Giants have been in this exact spot before and failed to meet the moment.

And yes, it’s about maximizing a return for players who can help the San Francisco Giants now and in the future. With Robbie Ray likely on the move, the 2026 rotation is already going to go from bad to worse and that’s with Webb fronting it. This offseason, assuming there isn’t a lockout, Buster Posey and Zack Minasian will have to once again rebuild the Giants’ rotation, needing at least another pair of starters on short-term, mid-to-low cost contracts to backup Logan Webb, Landen Roupp, and, I don’t know, Carson Whisenhunt/Trevor McDonald… and Adrian Houser, I guess, because

Giants ownership does not want to pay a lot of money for starting pitching. They have said this over and over and over and over again and their actions back up their words.

Does having Logan Webb front a bad rotation make the Giants better now and in the future? It’s a poor but not inexcusable business plan for an entertainment firm (as the San Francisco Giants are in part) to run out Barry Bonds as the face of the franchise in his age 40-42 seasons so that fans can watch him sock some dingers 4-5 times a week, but it’s less reasonable when the face is a pitcher who appears once every 5 days and can have a great performance wiped out by the defense around him or the bullpen behind him.

Logan Webb has looked great since returning from the injured list. Like his old, dominant self. The reason to watch the Giants. But since he only makes around 33 starts a year, I don’t think it makes a lot of sense to hold sacrosanct the entertainment value in 20% of a season if the remaining 80% of the season ranges from unwatchable to boring and not when the team has been mediocre to bad for going on 10 years now. Since the second half of 2016, they’re 736-777 (.486) with one postseason appearance.

Will the 2027 Giants be better with Logan Webb on it? I don’t know. He’s on the 2026 roster and they’re pretty bad. He’s been on the roster since 2022 and those teams weren’t very good. He might’ve pitched them into being merely disappointing rather than outright bad, but he hasn’t been able to pitch them out of this year’s situation.

I suppose I will never convince you that a bad team should do whatever it takes to get better, and that includes trading their good players sometimes. I think that’s a key point here. It’s not like the Giants need to unload their best players every year, but to say that the Giants are one good offseason away or one year of player development away from leaping into being a contender for the 3rd Wild Card spot ignores an awful lot of what’s going on with the team and it’s this exact belief system that has caused years of frustration ahead of the franchise finally driving itself into a ditch this season.

It’s time to change the thinking.

A move of this caliber would not be without precedent. It’s sort of the Matt Williams trade. In that one, Brian Sabean needed to clear money and get a shortstop, all while improving the team. In 10 seasons with the Giants, Williams amassed 31.9 fWAR (about a 3-win player) and hit 18% better than the league average — though, in his final four years he was 39% better and a 4.5-win player. As Grant noted on this site back in 2011:

It was a bold decision, and Sabean knew it would be unpopular, but he probably didn’t realize how unpopular. Still it was absolutely the right time to trade Williams. He was 30, and he was (for the time) expensive. He was about a four- or five-win player — a hard thing to find — but the Giants were absolutely rubbish in 1996. A quality for quantity trade was a pretty good idea.

And, maybe most importantly, Williams was starting to get hurt a lot. He played 76 games in 1995, and 105 in 1996. His value was probably never going to be higher.

In exchange for Matt Williams, Brian Sabean “got death threats at home, on the voicemail […] at the office,” while the Giants received Julian Tavarez, Jose Vizcaino, and (unbeknownst to all) future Hall of Famer Jeff Kent, who combined with Barry Bonds (and Sabean’s other decisions) to spark a new wave of winning Giants Baseball.

Logan Webb is approximately the same stature as Matt Williams in terms of face of the franchise value. He’s about a four- or five-win player — a hard thing to find — and the Giants have been absolute rubbish here in 2026. And just to break these filters down a bit more:

• From 2022-2025, there were just twenty-seven 4+-WAR seasons by a starting pitcher (min 190 IP). All four of Logan Webb’s seasons are in that bunch (15%). Yes, the modern game has changed enough such that a starting pitcher isn’t expected to throw that many innings in a season, and if you set the threshold to a minimum of 150 IP, the list expands to 53 starters, but you’re still talking about a workhorse who provides an increasingly rare set of skills.
• At 35-50, the 2026 Giants are one of the worst teams in franchise history. The worst record through 85 games:
  • 2005, 36-49
  • 1943, 34-50-1
  • 1994, 35-50
  • 2026, 35-50
  • 1976, 34-51
  • 1984, 33-52
  • 2017, 33-52
  • 1956, 32-53
  • 1985, 31-54
  • 1902, 28-56
• The 2026 Giants are 1 of 7 teams since 2022 to have 50 losses through 85 games. The list looks like this:
  • 2026 Giants
  • 2026 Mets
  • 2026 Royals
  • 2025 Pirates
  • 2025 Nationals
  • 2023 Cardinals
  • 2022 Pirates

Two of the teams on that list of 50-loss teams (and, to be clear, there have been worse teams since 2022) turned things around the very next year. In the case of the 2025 Pirates, though, that was a matter of adding some offense to a putrid lineup in addition to having a generational talent like Paul Skenes front their rotation in a pitching-friendly park. Now, you might say that the Giants are in this exact situation. But I’d argue that the Giants have already surrounded Logan Webb with offensive additions — Devers, Adames, Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee — only, they haven’t worked out! The team is on pace for its fifth consecutive non-winning season, something that has never happened before in the history of the franchise.

The Giants are in a position where they need starting pitching depth, a trade chip that’s hard to come by unless you’re willing to give up something big in return, and that’s a meaningful part of this thought process — the Giants might make themselves worse in the near-term, but would they be able to improve quickly just by the quality of player(s) they’d receive for Webb?

And, maybe most importantly, Webb just missed a significant amount of time for the first time as the team’s ace. Indeed, his best days might be behind him, if history is an indicator. His value might never be higher.

2. The return would be significant

Usually, the best starting pitchers are traded at the deadline when their contracts are set to expire at season’s end. Your Randy Johnson, CC Sabathia, Max Scherzer, etc. And, usually, teams don’t trade these aces at the deadline. It’s either in the offseason or not at all.

As mentioned before, if the Giants trade Robbie Ray (as they’re expected to), then how does Logan Webb fronting that rotation make the team any better? In the offseason, the rotation will once again need to be rebuilt. Major league caliber pitching is not easy to come by, of course, and comparing this situation to the Matt Williams situation or any of the other marquee starting pitcher trades in recent memory isn’t the best way to go because, usually, a team doesn’t get back a pitcher they can just plug into their rotation.

But unlike some of the names I’ve dropped, Webb’s value on the mound extends to his contract, which has two years remaining after this season. Even with a potential lockout, a rested Webb in the final year of his deal would have tremendous value. Going through some similar trades, the position player prospects tend to leap out more, but that might not be the reason to avoid making the trade. It might make it easier to offload some of the other hitting veterans for additional pitching.

About the closest comps I could find from a starting pitching point were:

2019 — Zack Greinke (from Diamondbacks to the Astros)

At the time of the deal, the 35-year old right-hander had 2.5 years left on his then-record pitching deal. In exchange for Greinke, Arizona received Houston’s #3 prospect, 1B Seth Beer, pitchers JB Bukauskas (#4 – MLB Pipeline’s #97 overall) & Corbin Martin (#5 — Pipeline’s #81), and infielder Josh Rojas. Houston plugged him into their rotation alongside Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole.

2017 — Justin Verlander (from Tigers to Astros)

Jeff Luhnow’s Astros at it again, dealing three from their then-top 11 prospects for the future Hall of Fame righty: catcher Franklin Perez (#3), outfielder Daz Cameron (#9), and catcher Jake Rogers (#11). Verlander had two guaranteed years remaining plus an option year.

2008 — Rich Harden (from the A’s to the Cubs)

Harden was still in arbitration years (with just one left) at the time of this deal and often injured, so it’s not a great comp, but in exchange for Harden (and Chad Gaudin), the A’s got back pitcher Sean Gallagher (the Cubs’ top pitching prospect at the time?), outfielders Matt Murton and Eric Patterson (Murton also a top 10 Cubs prospect), and then-catcher Josh Donaldson (also a top 10 prospect).

2000 — Curt Schilling (from Phillies to Diamondbacks)

Another not-quite-the-same-situation as Schilling had just an option year for 2001, but in exchange for Schilling, Philadelphia got back first baseman Travis Lee plus three pitchers: Omar Daal, Vicente Padilla, and Nelson Figueroa.

And then there’s this musing by the sharp GPT on Bluesky:

In every scenario, the Giants would scoop up at least 3 of a team’s top 10 prospects. With the Giants not able to participate in the draft lottery for 2027, the power of this year’s draft plus supplementation with a prospect-heavy trade would be the best avenue for supercharging the team’s prospect pool. Some teams of note:

• The Brewers have 7 prospects currently in MLB Pipeline’s Top 100
• The Mariners have 6
• The Nationals have 6
• The Cubs have 4
• The Guardians have 4

… the Giants have 3.

So, there’s lots of possibilities here. Just off the top of my head, if Luis Arraez is moved in a separate deal, then why not bring in the next best contact guy — Steven Kwan — to replace him? Logan Webb & Heliot Ramos for Kwan, Braylon Doughty, Jace LaViolette, and, like, Daniel Espino? No, no, of course not. Cleveland would never take on a contract like that (~$55 million total through 2028). By the way, I included LaViolette mainly because “His nickname is Lord Tubbington.”

As much as the farm system has improved, trading Webb offers a chance to supercharge it while also improving the weaker parts of the major league roster. They don’t presently enjoy a prospect with a 60 Future Value and that’s because they’re hard to come by. FanGraphs lists only 12 at the moment:

1. SS-Konnor Griffin (PIT), 70 FV
2. SS-Jesus Made (MIL), 65
3. SP-Nolan McLean (NYM), 65
4. C-Samuel Basallo (BAL), 65
5. 3B-Kevin McGonigle (DET), 60
6. SS-Leo De Vries (ATH), 60
7. CF-Max Clark (DET), 60
8. SS-Franklin Arias (BOS), 60
9. SP-Trey Yesavage (TOR). 60
10. SP-Bubba Chandler (PIT), 60
11. SP-Thomas White (MIA), 60
12. SP-Seth Hernandez (PIT), 60

A reminder that Leo De Vries was acquired by the Athletics from the Padres who sent them a huge chunk of their farm system for Mason Miller. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that some team(s) out there might really REALLY REALLY want Logan Webb on their team and would be willing to pay a lot to get him. He’s a dynamic, gutsy pitcher with a contract that’s a winner on any roster.

Yes, there’s a bit of luck involved in all of this. The Matt Williams trade looks a lot better because of Jeff Kent (Julian Tavarez, don’t come after me; Vizcaino stans stay away!) and a lot of the deals mentioned just a moment ago don’t really stand out as benefitting the teams that traded away the ace. On the other hand, isn’t “Well, the Giants will need Logan Webb again for the next good Giants team” also just banking on luck? What evidence has there been in the last 10 years to suggest that the Giants are a move away or a win streak away from its next competitive window? Understanding that the power of hope comes from being undaunted, I wonder what the value is — never mind the logic — in continuing to swing for the fences down 8-1 when a walk might start a rally that actually helps the team stage a comeback?

Bryan, you worthless pile of dogsh*t, you absolute dumbest person to ever live, a person I hate and whose death I will celebrate, of course the Giants aren’t trading Logan Webb and here’s why, you freaking loser

I forgot to mention that Tyler Mahle might be traded, too, meaning 40% of the rotation is set to leave before the end of the season. The only reason to hold on to Logan Webb in this case is for ticket sales and ratings. With the increase in attendance this season, that might be reason enough. Plus, where else will starting pitching innings come from?

Buster Posey and Zack Minasian are still learning on the job. As inexperienced as a GM as Brian Sabean was in 1996, he knew enough to know that the team had to make some big changes in order to improve, but also that he didn’t know what he didn’t know.

But at its core, this was a rookie GM trading one of the league’s biggest stars. So before Sabean signed off on the deal, he took Hart aside.

“I’ll never forget it,” Hart said. “Sabes came to me privately and said, ‘Harty, you gotta tell me if there’s anything I’m missing here. I’ve got to be sure.’ He was nervous. I said, ‘Look Sabes, we’re not jumping up and down on this either. We’re giving up some good players.’ That is how I remember it: we felt we were getting exactly what we wanted and they were unsure. They were trading their marquee guy.

“At the end of the day, he said, ‘If you’re ready, we’re ready.’ And off we go.”

Maybe Buster Posey has the sense that the team does need a dramatic shakeup, but that trading Logan Webb would be a step too far. Plus, despite the franchise’s plummet from champions to afterthoughts since the second half of 2016, with Logan Webb on the team the Giants have been winners, with a record of 507-487 (.510). He might be the one player holding the Giants back from total oblivion. So, if Buster Posey and Zack Minasian’s decision-making has led to one of the worst teams in the history of the franchise, why should they be entrusted with trading away such an important player?

It’s an argument you’ll see sometimes. At the same time, you’ll see the argument that the team’s farm system is greatly improved and that the decision-making there is working out. So, on the one hand, people have faith in Buster’s ability to set the direction and talent levels for the future but not in the present? I don’t think this argument actually makes sense or has any value. If Buster Posey’s biggest gambles (signing Adames, trading for Devers) are largely defensible, then the biggest one of all should be, too. The Giants have already traded Patrick Bailey, Tyler Rogers, and Camilo Doval in the past calendar year. Go back to March 2025 and you would have a hard time believing that such things were fathomable.

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If you’re a fan who thinks the Giants are on the right track with their player development, then why wouldn’t you want Buster & Zack using their scouting acumen to acquire more young talent? When the Giants traded Zack Wheeler for Carlos Beltran, they said that the trick would be to find the next Zack Wheeler. That didn’t really happen, and it’s important to note that Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Madison Bumgarner were all done with being aces by age 30. Logan Webb turns 30 in November.

The future of the Giants must not rest on the shoulders of Logan Webb, and so I encourage us all to put it out there into the universe that the Giants should trade him this season.