I went into deeper detail on Virginia’s history and current football team last week; this week we do the typical preview and break down the matchups.
Let’s go!
When Missouri Has the Ball
Missouri will be without Beau Pribula, Josh
Manning, Marquis Johnson, and Brett Norfleet. That’s 3 of your top five passing targets right there as well as the quarterback who played the majority of the season. And while Missouri by no means needs to throw the ball to win the game, you would always prefer to have the full complement of offensive weapons available to you. Alas.
Run The Ball
This Virginia defense is stout. Good at everything, elite against the pass, 3rd-best 3rd-down defense in the country…it’s going to be zero fun trying to move the ball against these guys. And that’s before you factor in that Missouri will not have it’s most experienced passer AND passing weapons available! If there’s no weakness available then you just need to be the best at what you do, and in this case, it’s running the dang ball. Give Ahmad Hardy 25+ carries, let him break the single-season record for rushing yards (or at least come close), and do your best against an unforgiving front 7. Let’s shoot for a minimum 41% rushing success rate.
Protect The Ball
Virginia’s defense loves getting turnovers. It’s a telling trait in their record! On the season Virginia is +7 in turnover margin with 20 total turnovers forced; in their losses Virginia is -5 with only one turnover forced over those three losses. Protect the ball, win the game! Even a neutral turnover margin would be beneficial here.
Finish Your Dang Drives
As ferocious as this Virginia defense can be, they’re in the middle of the pack of points allowed per scoring opportunity (4.25) and fairly terrible at allowed touchdowns once offenses get into the redzone (66.7% TD allowance). Capitalize on that please! I’m thinking Mizzou can get 6 scoring opportunities and finish with 4.7 points per scoring opportunity (28 points).
When Virginia Has the Ball
So far Virginia hasn’t had any portal defections from their offensive starters which makes sense: every single one of them is out of eligibility after this game! It should be the full complement available unless one of them sits out for NFL Draft purposes. Given the fact that Missouri will definitely be missing Josiah Trotter and potentially/probably missing Zion Young, that could make this match up much tougher.
Bottle Up The Run
Virginia is a better running team than a passing team but they ranking in the middle-to-bottom tier as far as running frequency in the country. They run it roughly 56% of the time in standard downs and 33% of the time in passing downs. Still, they don’t take deep shots so there shouldn’t be a lot of fear of getting burned deep here. Focus on stopping J’Mari Taylor and make Chandler Morris beat you with his arm. Shoot for a rushing success rate of 42% or less.
HAVOC
It’s a shame Zion Young had to be a big ol’ dummy about his consumption habits while driving because Virginia’s offensive line presents a prime opportunity to log some TFLs. Right Tackle Jack Whitmer, specifically, is a massive weak link in a fairly malleable offensive line, one that gives up pressures and tackles for loss, and Whitmer being the prime cause of those screw ups. Stick Damon Wilson or Darris Smith or WHOEVER on him and let them feast. I’d like to see at least a 20% havoc rate.
Conclusion
Ugly, low-scoring, close, last-second victory type of game. Just the way both teams like to play and have won many times over. It most likely will not be aesthetically pleasing and certainly not a shoot out, but it should be a solid matchup to enjoy during your holiday weekend.
