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Ten games left. That is all that separates the Phoenix Suns from the end of the regular season, and it brings them to a place they have never been before as a franchise, staring down the reality of the Play-In Tournament.
It is still a relatively new wrinkle in the NBA, introduced in 2021,
and Phoenix has managed to avoid it up to this point. The closest they came was in 2024, when they landed in the sixth seed and were promptly swept by Minnesota in the first round. Now it feels inevitable. The numbers back it up, with Basketball Reference giving the Suns a 91.8% chance to finish seventh in the Western Conference, which plants them firmly in Play-In territory.
A lot can shift over ten games. The NBA has a way of bending expectations when you least expect it, but the runway is short and the direction feels set. Phoenix is trending toward hosting a Play-In game, one night with everything on the line, a chance to secure the seventh seed and earn a date with the second seed out West. That reality starts to shape the way you look at the standings, because it is no longer about climbing; it is about positioning and survival. You begin scanning the teams circling that eighth spot, wondering who you would rather see, who presents the cleaner matchup, who carries the kind of chaos you want no part of.
So let’s take a look at the group fighting for that final Play-In position, and what each potential opponent could mean for the Suns.
Los Angeles Clippers
Odds of 8th seed: 62.4%
The Clippers sit under .500 at 35–36, 4.5 games back of Phoenix for that seventh seed, and with only 11 games remaining, it is a steep climb to make up that kind of ground. It can happen – the league has a way of tightening and twisting late in the year – but the math is not in their favor. Still, they sit squarely in the conversation as a potential Play-In opponent, and they are not a team you casually dismiss.
Since December 20, the Clippers are 29–15, the sixth-best record in the NBA over that stretch, and it speaks to how they have reshaped themselves on the fly. They moved on from a significant portion of their core, sending James Harden to Cleveland and Ivica Zubac to Indiana. And instead of folding, they found a rhythm. There is structure to what they do, there is confidence in how they play, and it shows up night after night.
The Suns split the season series 2–2, although the timing of those games matters. Three of those matchups came in the opening weeks of the season, back when everything still felt fluid and undefined, and only one has come since the calendar flipped to 2026. That game, February 1, was a 117–93 Clippers win that never felt competitive.
In March, the Clippers are 8–5, a notch above the Suns at 6–6 over the same stretch, and it reinforces the idea that this is a team playing with purpose as the season tightens. If this is the matchup that materializes, it would not be comfortable and it would not be forgiving.
Portland Trail Blazers
Odds of 8th seed: 26.2%
The Portland Trail Blazers sit a half-game behind the Clippers, which sets the stage for a tight race between those two teams as the season winds down. Every night carries weight for them, every result nudges the standings, and it feels like that eighth seed could swing back and forth all the way to the finish line. They have already dropped two games to the Clippers this season, and with two more matchups remaining, including that 81st game on April 10, there is a built-in pressure point that could decide who stays afloat and who slips to ninth.
Phoenix holds a 2–1 edge over Portland this year, although the lone loss tells a story of its own. That 92–77 defeat on February 22 came under some strange circumstances. The Suns were without Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks, and rolled out a starting group of Collin Gillespie, Jalen Green, Ryan Dunn, Royce O’Neale, and Mark Williams. It never found a rhythm. The offense stalled possession after possession, the shots did not fall, and the numbers reflect it. Phoenix shot 36.5% from the field, one of their roughest nights of the season, and finished with their lowest scoring output in nine years.
It is the kind of game you log, you remember, and you try to contextualize when projecting forward. Because while the Suns have had success against Portland, they have also seen how quickly things can get muddy against them, especially when the roster is stretched and the margin for error disappears.
Golden State Warriors
Odds of 8th seed: 7.5%
Golden State feels like a team running on fumes right now. They are 2–9 in March as injuries have chipped away at their rotation, and they are hanging on more than they are building anything sustainable. From a Phoenix perspective, there is a quiet sense of relief in that, because a healthy Warriors team has a way of turning every possession into a problem. The Suns are 1–2 against Golden State this season, with their lone win coming in a tight 99–98 game on December 18.
The Warriors sit at 33–38, two games back of the eighth seed, and the path forward is narrow. It would take a real push over their final 11 games to climb into position, and they are fighting uphill in the tiebreaker scenarios as well. Portland holds the edge after taking three of four in their season series, and the Clippers have won two of three so far, with one more meeting still on the schedule.
That final Clippers game, the last game of the regular season, lingers as a potential swing point. If the standings stay tight, it could carry real weight. For now, Golden State remains in the mix, but it feels fragile, a team searching for stability at the exact moment the season demands it.
Those are the names on the board, the paths that could cross with Phoenix when the Play In lights come on. And with the Suns essentially settled into their spot, the lens shifts a bit. It is no longer about chasing, it is about watching, about tracking the chaos unfolding beneath them and seeing which version of it rises up to meet them.
So the question becomes simple, even if the answer is not. Who do you want?
That is where we are. Ten games left, and instead of scoreboard watching above, it becomes about the teams below, about rooting for outcomes that shape the cleanest path forward. Not an easy path, because nothing about this team has been easy, but the one that gives you the best chance to survive and move on.
