Not long after Indiana beat Miami to earn their first football national title in school history, futures odds for the 2026 national champion were released. The favorite to win next year’s national title across many betting sites are the Ohio State Buckeyes.
The news is a bit of a surprise considering how Ohio State’s season ended, along with how the roster was affected during the transfer portal period.
Should these odds be treated as gospel when trying to project the 2026 season? Of course not. Just
look at some of the preseason rankings that come out less than a month before the season, and how wrong they can be.
Penn State, Clemson, LSU all were ranked in the top-10 prior to the season and the three programs combined to go 21-18, with Penn State and LSU both firing their head coaches during the season. Texas was thought to be a lock to make the playoff and Arch Manning’s name was already being etched on the Heisman Trophy.
Maybe those projections about the Longhorns and Manning were just a year off…
As much as I love the Buckeyes, I’m skeptical about Ohio State being at the top of the list when it comes to the favorites to win it all next season. Don’t get me wrong, I know the Buckeyes are an extremely talented group, especially on offense.
Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith are serious contenders to win the Heisman Trophy, Bo Jackson should be able to build on an outstanding freshman season, and it has almost become a given that Ohio State finished the season ranked inside the top-10.
What worries me is every season college football strays a little more from what we have become used to over the years. It’s not like Ohio State is dealing with roster turnover, coaching staff changes, and other issues. By the time September rolls around I’ll probably be declaring the Buckeyes are going 16-0 and winning it all, but right now I’m trying to be realistic and take off my scarlet and gray glasses for a bit.
A brutal schedule
The last two seasons Ohio State has benefitted from a relatively easy regular season schedule. There were some tough spots, like going to Oregon in 2024 and opening the 2025 season against Texas. 2026 is going to be wildly different for the Buckeyes.
Ohio State will travel to Austin to take on a Texas team with revenge on their mind on September 12th, followed by a trip to Bloomington to take on the defending national champs a month later.
Aside from battling the Longhorns and Hoosiers, the Buckeyes also will hit the road to take on Iowa, Nebraska, and USC. As if those games weren’t tough enough, Ohio State will host Oregon, Illinois, and Michigan. With a schedule that difficult, it will be a serious challenge to end the regular season with less than two losses.
In the first two years of the 12-team College Football Playoff, no team has made the field with three losses during the regular season. The only team to make the field with three losses was Alabama, who lost two games during the regular season, followed by the SEC Championship Game this year.
If the Buckeyes do end up losing two games during the regular season, they are going to leave themselves little room for error after that second loss.
Coaching staff questions remain
As of Tuesday afternoon, Ohio State still hasn’t hired an offensive coordinator. The job could remain open for a bit if Ryan Day is looking to go the same route as he did last year at defensive coordinator when he hired former NFL coordinator and head coach Matt Patricia.
What is making things even trickier for Day is there are still a bunch of NFL head coaching jobs still open, so it could be a while if the Ohio State head coach is targeting a guy like Brian Daboll or anyone else who is a potential candidate for a NFL head coaching or coordinator job.
I’ll obviously feel better about the offense if Day hires an experienced coordinator like two years ago when he brought in Chip Kelly. While the Buckeyes did find success with Brian Hartline in 2025 in his only season as offensive coordinator, I’m not holding my breath for lightning to strike twice.
What worries me about a candidate like Keenan Bailey is Day taking back the play-calling at the first sign of trouble. Even though Day was really good at running the offense in his first few years as head coach, he needs to sit back and handle more of a CEO role.
Even though there was some concern about hiring Patricia last year to run the defense, it became obvious early on that it was hard to deny all of his experience in high pressure games in the NFL. That’s what makes a offensive coordinator candidate from the NFL ranks so attractive.
Plus, an offensive coordinator with pro experience likely won’t be as easy for Day to overrule and take the play-calling from than a first-time OC like Bailey.
Defensive questions
Following last season there was questions about how the Ohio State defense would respond after losing a bunch of starters. All the Buckeye defense did in 2025 was put together the most dominant season in school history.
Now Ohio State will have to replace Caden Curry, Kayden McDonald, Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese, Caleb Downs, Davison Igbinosun, and more.
While the Buckeyes have worked on some of those concerns in the transfer portal by bringing in Qua Russaw, John Walker, James Smith, Christian Alliegro, Cam Calhoun, Dominick Kelly, Terry Moore, and a number of others, we have no idea if these players will be able to perform at the same level as those they are replacing.
Caleb Downs is a generational talent, which means it could take three or four players in the secondary to replicate the kind of impact he had on the field.
2026 opponents for the Buckeyes also have the luxury of having a year of tape of what type of schemes Patricia likes to run at the college level. Just look at what Miami was able to do with some time to put together a game plan on how to attack the Ohio State defense.
The Buckeyes will certainly have their hands full when they take on quarterbacks like Arch Manning, Dante Moore, and Jayden Maiava.
