March is just around the corner.
With Arizona controlling a two game lead over the Big 12, there is a four way tie for the last three double byes in the Big 12 tournament. Iowa State and Texas Tech are both a part of this tie at 11-4 in the conference play, and with just three total games remaining on the docket, every game counts even more as this game could decide if Iowa State earns a double bye.
Lessons learned from a Utah stint
In parallel with the women’s squad, the men sent off to Utah and returned with a win over the Utes and a loss
to BYU. The game against BYU was ultimately decided by a 13-0 run late in the first half for BYU, and while Tamin Lipsey cut the lead to just three with seven minutes to go, the Cougars immediately turned it around with a 10-1 run that put the game to rest. Iowa State turned it around three days later with a 75-59 win over the lowly Utah Utes, currently bottom of the conference with a 2-13 record. Joshua Jefferson led the scoring with 21 points while Milan Momcilovic notched his 104th 3-pointer, a new school record.
What are some takeaways from the mission trip to Utah? A part of it is just that road games are difficult, as Iowa State still has one of the better road records in the conference at 4-4. The more constructive criticism will be to limit the points in the paint allowed, as BYU was able to tally 40 to overcome a below average night from beyond the arc. That’s just too many open opportunities, with a 66% shooting percentage from inside the arc being a big eye opener. Iowa State did a better job in their game against Utah, but it is difficult to assess how much of that is due to better play or if Utah is just bad. It’s probably a bit of both.
Who is Texas Tech without Toppin?
With six minutes remaining against Arizona State, JT Toppin injured his leg on a drive to the basket that ended up as an ACL tear. Leading the team with 21.9 points per game, the impact this has on their ceiling in March realistically is significantly smaller for the team that was able to beat Arizona in Tucson. While you never want this to happen, Texas Tech has had two home games against teams that have struggled in the conference in Kansas State and Cincinnati to learn how the offense should be operated without their star. Still, they won’t have time to continue the “figuring it out” faze when they walk into Hilton Coliseum, the last undefeated Big 12 arena.
In their twelve point win over Cincinnati, Tech relied heavily on their starters, with Josiah Moseley being the only representative from the bench accumulating over 10 minutes. Christian Anderson played every minute and scored 31 points, his highest total in conference play. The top four scorers after JT Toppin are all 6’ 6” or shorter, so naturally they lead the league in three point attempts and percentage. For a team down on their luck, a good day behind the three point line can absolutely keep them in games against stronger opponents.
So what are the keys to victory for the Cyclones? Here are my thoughts:
- Use the size advantage heavily. Texas Tech does have one player that is 6’ 11”, there is a steep drop off after him. Buchanan and Pleta will cover him, but a 6’ 9” Jefferson and a 6’ 8” Momcilovic will certainly have a size advantage they don’t often have.
- Force turnovers. Texas Tech averages the second most offensive turnovers in conference play, which will compliment Iowa State’s second most defensive turnovers. It’s much harder to shoot threes when the ball is not secure.
- Bigs hitting free throws. This may be like asking for world peace, but with the size advantage Iowa State will have, the bigs are going to be even more likely to go to the free throw line. Pleta and Buchanan are currently shooting 58% and 46% from the line, so free throws can keep Texas Tech in the game.
Prediction: ISU 85 – Texas Tech 77
