Red zone play, and particularly the red zone play-calling, has been a favorite whipping boy for the Cowboys’ offensive struggles for a couple of years now, so it may be worth refreshing our memories about how good or bad the Cowboys actually were in the red zone over the last few of years.
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; }| Cowboys Red Zone TD Percentage – Offense | ||||||
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| RZ Drives | 54 | 65 | 56 | 71 | 50 | 65 |
| RZ TDs | 27 | 41 | 40 | 40 | 23 | 37 |
| RZ TD% | 50% | 63% | 71% | 56% | 46% | 57% |
| Rank | 29th | 6th | 1st | 14th | 31st | 18th |
| Source: sportskeeda.com | ||||||
The traditional way of measuring red zone performance is Red Zone Touchdown Percentage (RZ TD%), which measures how often a team scores a TD on a drive that entered the red zone on at least one play. But you can
see from the table above that it’s far from a perfect measure.
Take 2025. The Cowboys RZ TD% of 57% last year ranked “only” 18th in the league. Yet compared to the No. 1 red zone offense in 2022, the Cowboys were short by only three TDs. And in terms of the number of red zone drives, 2025 matches the record-breaking 2021 scoring offense. So as a pure performance indicator, RZ TD % can be a bit misleading.
Perhaps a better way to think of RZ TD% is as a “meat-left-on-the bone” stat. League-wide, an elite red zone offense generally operates above a 65% touchdown conversion rate, so the 2025 offense left a lot of meat on the bone relative to some other teams in the league.
Consider that the 2025 Cowboys ranked seventh in total points scored and second in total yards. So they were definitely a prolific offense, but despite those gaudy numbers, many Cowboys fans felt uneasy as soon as the Cowboys made it into the red zone, fearful that this would just be another drive that would stall a few yards short of the end zone.
And that eye-test, though notoriously fickle and unreliable, is not wrong. The Cowboys did get bogged down way more in the red zone than their high-octane, between-the-20s offense would have led you to believe. So let’s walk through a handful of metrics to understand what was going on in the red zone.
Red zone drives vs total drives
The Cowboys had 177 total drives last year, which ranked a middling 17th in the league. This is not necessarily a number that the offense controls by itself. The ability of the defense to get the ball back quickly (non-existent in 2025) and the opponent both influence that number. Still, the Cowboys took 65 of those drives into the red zone, and that RZ drive conversion percentage of 36.7% ranks the Cowboys a comfortable fifth in the league, pretty much in line with where they rank as a scoring offense.
Red Zone Scoring Efficiency
RZ TD% only measures TDs and ignores field goals. And while scoring a TD is the optimal outcome of a RZ drive, each time a FG is kicked, it isn’t worth as much as a TD, but still counts for something. If you consider that total red zone drives multiplied by seven (and ignoring two-point conversions) is the maximum scoring potential, then you can measure your total scoring (TDs x 7, FGs x3) as a percentage of that maximum with this simple formula
(RZ TD * 7 + RZ FG * 3) / (RZ Drives * 7)
Applying that formula to the Cowboys 37 RZ TDs, 17 RZ FGs, and 65 RZ drives gives you a RZ scoring efficiency of 68.1%, which ranks the Cowboys just 20th in the league. Again, this indicates that the Cowboys are leaving too much meat on the bone. But why?
Red zone drive killers
If you’re in the red zone and didn’t score a TD or a FG, only a finite number of things can have happened to end the drive, most of which are some kind of turnover. Here are the RZ drive killers for the entire NFL in 2025:
- 96 turnovers on downs
- 62 interceptions
- 26 fumbles
- 18 missed field goals
- 7 blocked field goals
- Not a turnover, but the drive ends anyway as the clock runs out: End of game (19) or end of half (2)
The 2025 Cowboys had 11 such drive killers. As a total of the 65 RZ drives, that’s 16.9% and ranks the Cowboys 25th. So that’s a key point to better understand the Cowboys’ red zone woes. Here’s the breakdown:
- six turnovers on downs (rank: 30th)
- four interceptions (tied for last place in the league), three by Prescott, one by Milton
- one fumble by Miles Sanders in the season opener against the Eagles. 14 teams did not have a single RZ fumble, the Cowboys are one of 11 teams with one fumble.
So that’s it in terms of hard numbers that affect scoring. We saw that the Cowboys are a prolific offense outside the red zone, but leave a lot of meat on the bone once in the red zone, partly driven by a high number of turnovers.
But that’s not all that’s driving red zone performance. In the following, we’ll look at four more stats that impact scoring indirectly.
- Negative plays: Nothing dampens the mood like a negative run from the one-yard line. That’s also why the tush push is such an incredible play if you can execute it reliably.
- Penalties: The most inopportune moment for a penalty is in the red zone.
- Play-calling tendency: Some teams are pass-heavy, others are run-heavy in the red zone.
- Passing performance: Comparing a quarterback’s red-zone accuracy to league baselines isolates his ability to operate in a tightened field, though that completion percentage may also be impacted by playcalling, receiver quality, ability to use the width of the field, and more.
But before we look at the numbers, we go to Wednesday’s Cowboys press conference, where offensive coordinator Klayton Adams touched on many of these points when asked how the Cowboys could get better in the red zone.
“We did really take it all in and say ‘how can we get better down there, let’s be real honest with ourselves about what we need to do better down here.’
“You know, some of it was – I don’t know if it’s just maybe being young or performance anxiety – but like we had more self-inflicted wounds in the red zone than we did in some other areas. If you have a negative yardage run on the 1-yard line, that’s a lot different than a negative yard on the 50. If you have a false start inside the 5-yard line, it’s a lot different than when you’re on the -25.”
“So there was a little bit of that.”
“There was a little bit of us just saying we were mainly run and action on normal down and distances out on the open field, then sometimes we would get down there and kind of shift our thought process to more drop-back stuff.”
“I think specifically, run-game wise, you’ve got to find a way to use the 53.3 [width of field in yards] – in the pass game really and the run game – when you’re restricted to 5 or 6 yards vertically, you have to use your lateral space better.”
“That’s one thing I always try to remind myself of […] is just executing a bit better. There’s never going to be just THE solution, everything is going to be a small piece of the solution.”
Negative plays
Although the eye test tells me this is a huge issue, it isn’t. The Cowboys had 10 negative-yardage plays (excl. kneel downs) in the RZ last year, the second-lowest value in the league (three sacks, two passes, five runs).
Penalties
“Holding, Tyler Guyton, 10-yard penalty.” That’s what my eye ear-test tells me happened in the red zone last year. But that’s not what happened, not even once. So much for that.
Here are the Cowboys 14 red zone penalties, along with a calculated “Points Lost” value that compares the outcome of the drive with an optimal outcome.
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; } body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th { padding: 4px 6px !important; }| Week | Field Pos. | Penalty | Drive result | Points Lost | |
| Week 1 | 1-10-PHI 11 | DAL-G.Pickens, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards | Fumble | 7 | |
| Week 3 | 3-3-CHI 10 | DAL-T.Guyton, False Start, 5 yards | FG | 4 | |
| Week 4 | 1-10-GB 12 | DAL-L.Schoonmaker, False Start, 5 yards | TD | 0 | |
| Week 5 | 1-1-NYJ 1 | (Kick Formation) DAL-N.Thomas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards | Extra Point no good | 1 | |
| Week 6 | 2-6-CAR 8 | DAL-T.Smith, False Start, 5 yards | TD | 0 | |
| Week 8 | 3-1-DEN 1 | DAL-B.Hoffman, False Start, 5 yards, | FG | 4 | |
| Week8 | 2-5-DEN 11 | DAL, Illegal Formation, 4 yards | TD | 0 | |
| Week 11 | 4-1-LV 5 | (Kick formation) DAL-T.Bass, False Start, 5 yards | Extra Point | 0 | |
| Week 12 | 2-1-PHI 1 | DAL-T.Guyton, False Start, 4 yards | INT | 7 | |
| Week 12 | 1-10-PHI 13 | DAL-T.Guyton, Tripping, 15 yards | TD | 0 | |
| Week 13 | 4-3-KC 13 | DAL, Delay of Game, 5 yards | FG | 4 | |
| Week 13 | 1-6-KC 6 | DAL-J.Ferguson, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards | TD | 0 | |
| Week 15 | 4-3-MIN 18 | DAL, Delay of Game, 5 yards | FG | 4 | |
| Week 16 | 3-4-LAC 5 | DAL-T.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards | FG | 4 | |
| Source: NFL game books | |||||
That’s a potential 34 points lost to penalties, and Tyler Guyton isn’t even in there with a holding penalty, though he has two false starts and a tripping penalty.
Unfortunately, there is no database that I found that lists individual penalties by field position. The data above is pulled from the individual game books, but I can’t do that for all 32 teams, so it makes it hard to evaluate where exactly the Cowboys rank with these numbers. However, we do know that the Cowboys ranked 31st in the league with 44 penalties on offense. The 14 penalties above are 32% of that total, which is slightly less than the 36.7% percent that we get by comparing RZ Drives (65) with total drives. Still, 14 feels like a high number, considering that 14 teams in the NFL had 28 or fewer total offensive penalties.
Play-Calling Tendency
As Adams points out above, the Cowboys may have gotten a bit pass-heavy in the red zone. The 2025 team had a pass ratio of 56.5% in the red zone, the sixth-highest value in league, and five points higher the 50.8% league average. A high ratio is not necessarily a disadvantage, the Rams have an almost identical 56.8% RZ pass ratio, but if you fail to stretch the field enough, or don’t have the right plays in your RZ arsenal, that might be problematic.
The Eagles for example only have a RZ pass ratio of 43%, in part because they can rely on the tush push for short-yardage situations. That in turn limits the risks Jalen Hurts would have to take in the passing game otherwise.
Passing Performance
This last point is closely linked to the previous one, and may turn out to be a bit controversial. We understand that in a condensed field and against more aggressive coverage, the completion ratio in the red zone might be lower than over the entire field. And the league average numbers bear this out, with an average drop of 7.8 percentage points between the entire field and the red zone:
- NFL total completion percentage (endzone to endzone): 64.3%
- Inside the 20: 56.5%
- Inside the 10: 52.8%
But what is true at a league level is not necessarily true when it comes to individual passers. Here’s a list of 27 quarterbacks with at least 40 red zone pass attempts and how their red zone completion rate compares to their overall completion rate.
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; } body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th { padding: 2px 6px !important; }| Player | Tm | Red Zone | Total CMP% | Change | ||
| Cmp | Att | Cmp% | ||||
| Cam Ward | TEN | 34 | 49 | 69.4 | 59.8 | 9.6 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | 34 | 48 | 70.8 | 64.8 | 6.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | 66 | 104 | 63.5 | 65.0 | -1.5 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | 48 | 80 | 60.0 | 63.4 | -3.4 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 34 | 53 | 64.2 | 67.7 | -3.6 |
| Geno Smith | LVR | 35 | 55 | 63.6 | 67.4 | -3.8 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | 39 | 72 | 54.2 | 58.1 | -3.9 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | 46 | 77 | 59.7 | 64.9 | -5.2 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 45 | 81 | 55.6 | 60.9 | -5.3 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 39 | 61 | 63.9 | 69.3 | -5.4 |
| Baker Mayfield | TAM | 32 | 56 | 57.1 | 63.2 | -6.1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | 44 | 74 | 59.5 | 65.7 | -6.2 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | 37 | 65 | 56.9 | 63.6 | -6.7 |
| Drake Maye | NWE | 47 | 72 | 65.3 | 72.0 | -6.7 |
| Jordan Love | GNB | 38 | 64 | 59.4 | 66.3 | -6.9 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KAN | 41 | 76 | 54.0 | 62.7 | -8.8 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | 38 | 66 | 57.6 | 67.7 | -10.1 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | 30 | 52 | 57.7 | 68.0 | -10.3 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | 26 | 48 | 54.2 | 64.5 | -10.3 |
| Brock Purdy | SFO | 32 | 55 | 58.2 | 69.4 | -11.2 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | 55 | 99 | 55.6 | 67.3 | -11.7 |
| Jared Goff | DET | 47 | 84 | 56.0 | 68.0 | -12.1 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | 21 | 41 | 51.2 | 66.8 | -15.6 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | 39 | 77 | 50.7 | 66.4 | -15.8 |
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | 19 | 44 | 43.2 | 63.7 | -20.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 17 | 41 | 41.5 | 63.6 | -22.1 |
| Source: ProFootballReference.com | ||||||
The color code here is pretty simple. Blue are players that have a better RZ completion percentage than their regular completion percentage. Green are players above the league change of -7.8%, yellow are players below the league average, and red are players that are at least twice the league average below their regular completion percentage.
We already touched on Jalen Hurts and how the tush push might help him avoid lower percentage throws. But Cam Ward is a mystery. Tennessee has a 55% pass ratio, so he’s not avoiding throws. Perhaps it’s just random variance for a player new to the league? But if we choose random variance as an explanation, doesn’t that also apply to all other players on the list? Why is Lamar Jackson so low? His pass ratio of 41% is even lower than Hurts’ ratio of 43%. I can’t come up with a good answer for Jackson, and frankly, for none of the other passers listed here either.
Knowing the limitations of this table, I posted it anyway, not the least because we can’t avoid talking about Dak Prescott and his below average completion rate in the red zone. But at least here, we have some hints from Klayton Adams of what could be driving this:
- Overemphasis on drop-back plays in the red zone
- Failure to consistently use the full width of the field
- Perhaps some youth-related or performance anxiety issue with some of the younger players on offense
- And ultimately: execution
These points are impossible to quantify with regular NFL stats, but they do have one thing going for them: they conform much better with the results of my eye test results from last season than some of the more traditional stats do.
As such, it feels like the Cowboys have correctly identified the issues that have held them back in the red zone and are looking to fix them, even if it’s not going to be that one big thing that affects that change.
But with a lot of work and a little bit of luck, that should leave much less meat on the bone this year. And you know what that means
Playoffs, baby!
