Fun fact: there are only 25 regular-season games left in 2026. Accordingly, we can finally start writing the obituary for the campaign. Note that I did not say “title defense,” as, barring a statistically improbable series of events, the Los Angeles Dodgers will make the 2026 tournament.
How many? Eight or more, at bare minimum.
I may have criticisms about the work of Dr. Brent Walker, PhD, Major League Mental Skills Coach for the Dodgers, but I am 99.99% sure no one will have to refer him to the American
Hypnotical Association, even if Kyle Tucker somehow starts acting like a chicken.
Finally calling it for 2026: I was wrong…*
I can finally call it, barring tragedy that might arise from my tempting fate: I was (likely) wrong. I have good company. In the grand scheme of things, the Dodgers managed to do something that no one could have predicted for the 2026 regular season: make just about everybody wrong.
Most, if not all, prognosticators picked this year’s version of the team to win at least 100 games. I infamously didn’t, while predicting 92 regular-season wins.
This team could go 116-46 and romp to 11-0 in the postseason as the top seed. But that outcome would require both everything going right and the naysayers being right about the competitive balance of the sport. When this team coasted last year, it was rough to watch – until October. Assuming good health, I expect more of the same…
[Emphasis added.]
Everyone and their mother predicted the 2025 Dodgers to win at least 100 games. I sure did.
But I came to a sobering conclusion last year while watching the Dodgers sleepwalk their way through Pittsburgh and Baltimore. While witnessing a collection of offensive firepower on paper that would be out of place anywhere but in fever dreams and MLB: The Show (with the budget turned off), I was watching the literal personification of “less than the sum of its parts,” as the team shuffled from disinterested game to disinterested game in some of the most beautiful ballparks in the world.
It should be a crime against baseball to play that badly in Pittsburgh and Baltimore. To be fair, the home team often commits that sin more often than not. Back then, I realized that if the Dodgers could not be bothered to take care of business against lesser opponents (even the working overtime part), then I would react accordingly.
Yes, the Dodgers prevailed in 2025, and there are different years and different teams. I was there. It was neat. Looking ahead to 2026, I realized that it’s largely the same cake mix as last year, just a year older.
Surely, some extra frosting can compensate, right? Surely, the Dodgers’ cake mix wouldn’t have gone stale yet?
Something stands out when you closely watch the Dodgers this year. They look slower. They look duller. They don’t take the extra base. They don’t prevent the extra base. They don’t run very much. They have turned the fewest double plays in baseball. They have hit into the most double plays in baseball, which is odd for a team that generally does not hit the ball on the ground.
Generally, other teams have an edge that this team once had. It’s not as if the Dodgers stood pat last winter, resting on their laurels.
Yes, Michael Conforto was swapped out for Kyle Tucker (and lo, what an absolute disaster that swap has been, which is a topic for a later day). Yes, Tanner Scott was swapped out for Edwin Diaz only to be swapped back (and lo, no one is crowing about that decision and its aftermath, which is also a topic for a later day).
At the start of play on September 1, the Dodgers sit at 82-55 after 137 games.
For my original prediction about the regular season to be correct, something terrible (and unlikely) would have to happen, requiring a comedic 10-15 finish, which would bode poorly for the postseason tournament at the bare minimum.
I would not be that concerned about that doomsday scenario. There are other doomsday scenarios involving Kalshi and federal investigations that are far more concerning, which are also topics for another day.
*Unless “The Price is Right” Rules are in place
[Author’s Note: Closest to the mark, without going over – if you somehow are unfamiliar.]
Why am I unconcerned about this scenario? Because the Dodgers would have to play against the type for the first time all year. I will give the 2026 Dodgers a measure of credit: last year’s model played down to weaker competition with hysterical results, saving their best games for their best opponents.
This year’s model has been the polar opposite to an almost absurd degree. As of the start of play on September 1, 2026, the Dodgers are an eye-popping 49-19 against opponents with a record below .500, which is almost a 72.5% win rate.
72% of 25 is 18, which would get the Dodgers to 100 regular-season wins, making Stacie Wheeler the person who would come closest to the actual mark (99 wins) without going over.
Teams are supposed to beat their sub-500 opponents. This year’s division leaders follow that script with one glaring exception.
- AL West: Houston Astros – 44-54
- AL Central: Chicago White Sox – 47-30
- AL East: Tampa Bay Rays – 50-31
- NL West: Dodgers – 49-19
- NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers – 48-31
- NL East: Atlanta Braves – 45-32
How far the American League has fallen, and the likely train wreck that the 3 (Astros) vs. 6 (who cares, but either Cleveland / Baltimore / Texas / Toronto / Minnesota for those keeping track) Wild Card matchup will be, will serve as an indictment of this playoff format. Especially when Houston somehow waltzes into the ALCS with a puncher’s chance for another Fall Classic berth.
Have the Dodgers grown indolent, fattening up their record against underachieving teams? Probably. But before explaining why next time, let us observe an eye-popping statistic for context.
As for the Dodgers, I’m getting 2023-vibes in the worst possible way, and half expecting Bobby Miller or Lance Lynn to walk back through the door because this current team is a living embodiment of the following meme about punching down as the 2023 team reached 100 regular-season wins, aided in no small part by bullying the hapless San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants.
Drawn and quartered
Over the past few years, the Dodgers have been beasts at home and have brought out their best game against the best opponents, but that has not been the case in 2026. The team just completed another ho-hum summer, which piqued my curiosity. How are the other division leaders handling their over .500 opponents?
The short answer is “better than the Dodgers,” with one notable exception.
- AL West: Houston Astros – 25-14
- AL Central: Chicago White Sox – 25-34
- AL East: Tampa Bay Rays – 32-23
- NL West: Dodgers – 33-36
- NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers – 37-21
- NL East: Atlanta Braves – 37-23
Having a performance issue in common with the White Sox in 2026 is likely a sign that presages some sort of baseball disaster. The kicker is that the recent slump against decent teams started without much warning.
After besting the Yankees and Phillies to start the second half, the Dodgers faced the toughest part of their schedule, with games against plausible or possibly playoff opponents starting at the end of July against the Boston Red Sox at home and continuing on throughout most of August with series against the Chicago Cubs, Arizona Diamondbacks, Milwaukee Brewers, and Atlanta Braves.
To say that the Dodgers failed this test would be a gross understatement.
The Dodgers won single games against the Brewers and Diamondbacks and lost every other game to go 2-14 during this stretch. Dave Roberts was unconcernedwhen learning about this fact for the first time:
“Honestly, I’m not too concerned about it. I know we’ve got a good ball club. Baseball is one of those things where how you’re playing, who you’re playing, and how they’re playing at a point in time,” manager Dave Roberts told reporters on Thursday in Atlanta. “I didn’t know that statistic, but I’ll still take our team against any of those winning teams. I think it just comes down to us, we’ve just got to play good, winning baseball.”
[Emphasis added.]
First, while I am familiar with the expression, no more gambling talk, please. Second, if the 2025 Brewers taught us anything, it is that regular-season success does not automatically translate to October success. But it’s not as if last year’s team rolled over again and again to teams it might actually face with likely consequences.
The Dodgers now have to climb uphill for the top seed and are locked in a dogfight to secure the other first-round bye after surrendering both tiebreakers to Milwaukee and Atlanta through the recent patch of hideous play.
Last year, the Dodgers faced the Cincinnati Reds in the Wild Card Round with barely an inconvenience. I am dubious that the Padres or Diamondbacks will pose as little of a threat in a hypothetical Wild Card Round.
Cakewalk for the win
Oddly enough, where the 2023 team was caught off guard by the Diamondbacks, this year’s team could earn themselves a bye by continuing to bully lesser teams in September.
As Eric Stephen recently pointed out, the Dodgers only have games against one team with a winning record as of the start of play on September 1: the 72-65 San Diego Padres for the final home series of the year. Ironically enough, the Padres have gone 1-5 since the introductory press conference with their new owners.
It’s not indicative of anything; I just find the factoid amusing.
The St. Louis Cardinals could rise to .500 if they beat the Dodgers in games 1 and 2 of their upcoming series. The Miami Marlins are currently at .500 and may remain there or improve over the next week.
As of July 1, the Dodgers have gone a tepid 25-25, and now have 25 games remaining. The primary culprit of this year’s swoon: a lukewarm offense that was designed on paper to have the muscle of a six-figure supercar with the actual output of a Honda Accord with a sputtering transmission.
