After three games of the 2025 WNBA Finals, the No. 4-seed Phoenix Mercury have not figured out how to beat the No. 2-seed Las Vegas Aces. Now, the enter Friday night’s Game 4 (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) down 0-3
and one loss away from a sweep.
The odds are stacked against the Mercury as they aim to do the improbable and win four-straight games.
However, the Mercury don’t have to think about the iconic run they have to go on. All they have to do is win Game 4 at home.
Alyssa Thomas must score
Sure, we can get into basketball minutiae and break down defensive coverages, mismatches, offensive sets and all that jazz. But if Alyssa Thomas doesn’t score more points, none of it will matter.
She is the engine that drives this team, and from the start of the series, we’ve emphasized that she needed to score 19 or more points for the Mercury to win. That was the amount of points she scored in all of Phoenix’s wins in the previous series against the Lynx. Against the Aces, in contrast, she’s averaging 13 points per game and has yet to surpass that 19-point threshold.
Whether she has to get selfish, head coach Nate Tibbetts needs to put her in more advantageous positions or her teammates feed her the ball more, they need to figure out how to get Thomas as many looks at the basket as possible. If not, these Finals will be remembered not only as an incredible run by the Aces, but as a disappointing one for Thomas and the Mercury.
Life without Satou Sabally
Satou Sabally, unfortunately, suffered a concussion in Game 3 and has been ruled out for Game 4. She is so important to Phoenix’s success that it seems impossible that they’ll be able to beat Vegas without her.
To do so, players like DeWanna Bonner will have to step up. Bonner had a great Game 3, scoring 25 points off the bench. She even got the start in the second half of Game 3 in an attempt to turn the tide for Phoenix. It didn’t ultimately result in a win, but she did play well. Another performance like that, and perhaps the Mercury can walk away with a win.
Late-game execution
In two of these three games, the contests came down to the wire. The Mercury have been bad late in games, and that’s a combination of the players and Tibbetts.
They tried to double A’ja Wilson in Game 3, and they still couldn’t stop her. It’s easy to say after the fact, but on the game’s final play, they needed to try and deny her the ball a lot more than they did. It seemed like they were okay with her grabbing the inbound pass and trusted their defense to do their job. They didn’t.
Despite the 0-3 deficit, two of these games have been close. We will likely have another clutch time game, and the Mercury will have to outplay the Aces late. That means playing smart and not fouling, Kahleah Copper being aggressive, Thomas scoring as well and Bonner not getting killed defensively.
Phoenix is right there, knocking at the door of a win. Do they have the desire to knock it down and fight another day? Or will it close on them if the Aces push back? We’ll find out on Friday night.
