The Big Ten Tournament ended with the teams that had the two most interesting season-long storylines facing off against each other. Purdue was the preseason AP No. 1 team and started 17-1, but it was Michigan who went 19-1 in conference play and beat Wisconsin in the conference semifinals to claim wins against every team in the conference this season. The Boilermakers opened the second half on fire, eventually winning 80-72 and claiming a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
However, to close out the
season, this article will have a bit of a different format. I’ll talk about the trends for each team throughout the year rather than just the last week in each team’s section, while also listing their highest and lowest projections at any point in the season under their final seeding. The Big Ten ended up with nine teams in the Big Dance, with Indiana in the first four out, keeping the conference from double-digit selections.
Michigan – No. 1 Seed (No. 3 overall)
Highest projection: No. 1 Seed (No. 1 overall)
Lowest projection: No. 2 Seed (No. 7 overall)
The Wolverines came into the season with a good amount of hype and the No. 2-ranked transfer portal class. But to be considered among the top three teams in the country in a year where the very upper echelon of college basketball is arguably the best it has ever been was not something that many people imagined would be possible. Michigan amassed a 16-3 record in Quad 1 games (tied for the most wins against Quad 1), and a 10-2 record in Quad 1A games (the best mark in the country). The Wolverines went 15-0 against all other teams this year, and when fully healthy, were beating pretty much every opponent by double digits. Michigan was the favorite to win it all at many points throughout the middle of the season, and the Wolverines still have an expectation to contend for the title, despite the season-ending injury to backup point guard L.J. Cason.
Purdue – No. 2 Seed (No. 8 overall)
Highest projection: No. 1 Seed (No. 1 overall)
Lowest projection: No. 3 Seed (No. 11 overall)
As I mentioned in the introduction, Purdue was named the preseason AP No. 1 team in the country and started the season 17-1, but this season saw a fair amount of adversity for the Boilermakers. Purdue lost a whopping five games at Mackey Arena, including three of its final four games at home. The Boilermakers still fought through a three-game losing streak in late January and a 2-4 ending to the regular season, bouncing back by winning four straight games to claim the Big Ten Tournament title. Purdue is riding a ton of momentum heading into the NCAA Tournament, and could beat anyone in the country if the Boilermakers continue to play defense as they did in the Big Ten Tournament.
Michigan State – No. 3 Seed (No. 9 overall)
Highest projection: No. 2 Seed (No. 7 overall)
Lowest projection: No. 5 Seed (No. 19 overall)
Michigan State had an incredibly Michigan State-esque season. I don’t think there’s any other way to explain it, as the Spartans started the season considered a solid team, but not quite a championship contender, and yet they forced their way near that conversation throughout the season. While Michigan State ended outside of the top eight on the official seed list, many bracketologists (myself included) thought Tom Izzo had a No. 2 seed locked up for the second year in a row. As always, the Spartans are heavily reliant on their defense, and while that formula hasn’t been enough to contend for titles recently, Michigan State is coming off an Elite Eight appearance last year and has a decent chance to make it back to that level again this year.
Illinois – No. 3 Seed (No. 10 overall)
Highest projection: No. 2 Seed (No. 5 overall)
Lowest projection: No. 5 Seed (No. 19 overall)
The Fighting Illini were always one of the hardest teams to seed, especially towards the end of the season. Illinois started the season playing close games against many difficult opponents. Illinois’ final results reflect just how difficult the schedule was, as the Fighting Illini played 15 games against Quad 1 opponents, and 12 of those were classified as Quad 1A games. Illinois only lost Quad 1 games throughout the season, including four overtime losses from February 7 to March 13 during a 4-5 stretch heading into the NCAA Tournament. The Fighting Illini have a ton of potential in the Big Dance, and a relatively favorable draw, as the No. 6 Seed in their region (North Carolina) is playing without its superstar, Caleb Wilson (19.8 PTS, 9.4 REB, 2.7 AST).
Nebraska – No. 4 Seed (No. 13 overall)
Highest projection: No. 1 Seed (No. 4 overall)
Lowest projection: In Consideration
During Nebraska’s 20-0 start, it was almost impossible to think that this team would end up as a No. 4 Seed. The Cornhuskers were one of the best stories in all of college basketball this season, rising all the way from nearly out of the tournament picture to as high as a projected No. 1 seed, even though a 6-6 end to the season might have taken away from that spectacular start. The Cornhuskers are one of the teams that I would personally argue is a bit underseeded, but either way, Nebraska could make even more history in the NCAA Tournament by finally claiming the first tournament win in program history. Troy will be a tough matchup, but the Cornhuskers should be able to handle the Trojans, and if they can, there is no doubt that this season is going down as the best basketball season in Nebraska history.
Wisconsin – No. 5 Seed (No. 20 overall)
Highest projection: No. 5 Seed (No. 20 overall)
Lowest projection: In Consideration
As incredible as Wisconsin’s season was, the Badgers’ run can be boiled down to some very simple trends. Wisconsin just couldn’t catch fire from deep in non-conference play. The Badgers started 9-5, including a 1-2 start to conference play, and then everything changed. Wisconsin drained 15 threes to hand Michigan its first loss of the season, and although the Badgers lost to some middling teams along the way, they also defeated Illinois (twice), Michigan State, Iowa, and Purdue after that shaky 9-5 start. When this team hits threes, they’re nearly unbeatable and will be an incredibly tough out in the NCAA Tournament.
UCLA – No. 7 Seed (No. 28 overall)
Highest projection: No. 4 Seed (No. 16 overall)
Lowest projection: First Four Out
UCLA was never very far out of the tournament picture, but a lack of impressive wins during a 10-5 start to the season had the Bruins’ doubters out in full force. UCLA still struggled on the road trips to the east, but the Bruins held their own at home, claiming wins against Purdue, Nebraska, and Illinois at Pauley Pavilion, and also beating Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament. UCLA might have taken a while to get there, but it finally feels like the team that was ranked No. 12 in the preseason AP poll has come to play. As long as the Bruins are healthy, they could make some noise in the NCAA Tournament as a very dangerous No. 7 seed with experience and great three-point shooting.
Ohio State – No. 8 Seed (No. 31 overall)
Highest projection: No. 8 Seed (No. 29 overall)
Lowest projection: First Four Out
The Buckeyes didn’t make it easy on their fans, but they peaked at the right time to surge into a very safe placement in the field. Ohio State started 6-0, and then never stacked together more than two wins (or two losses) in a row from December all the way through the end of February. The Buckeyes entered March firmly on the bubble, but were at their best at the very end of the season, beating Purdue at home, Penn State on the road by 32, and fellow bubble team (at least at the time) Indiana at home by 13 to close out the regular season. In the conference tournament, Ohio State defeated Iowa 72-69 and hung in tough with Michigan in a 71-67 loss. The Buckeyes ended the season 21-12 with a brutal schedule and earned a No. 8 seed as a result. But putting the season recaps to the side, I will conclude by saying all college basketball fans can agree that Bruce Thornton in the NCAA Tournament just feels right.
Iowa – No. 9 Seed (No. 36 overall)
Highest projection: No. 4 Seed (No. 16 overall)
Lowest projection: No. 10 Seed (No. 37 overall)
The Hawkeyes were a tough team to seed throughout the season, as they couldn’t quite get over the hump against the true upper echelon teams in the Big Ten. Still, Iowa played games decided by single-digit margins against Iowa State, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, and Nebraska over the course of the season, proving it could hang with some tough teams. The Hawkeyes did beat Nebraska late in the season, and even though they ended the season by losing six of their final eight regular-season games, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee still decided the resume was impressive enough for Iowa to avoid being a true bubble team, rewarding the Hawkeyes with a No. 9 seed.
Indiana – First Four Out
Highest projection: No. 5 Seed (No. 18 overall)
Lowest projection: Next Four Out
Unfortunately, the Hoosiers did the one thing you don’t want to in college basketball: play your best ball in November. Indiana started the season 7-0 with dominant wins across the board, and even after losing two in a row to Minnesota and Louisville, the Hoosiers’ 12-3 start was enough to keep them in the tournament picture. Here’s how Indiana finished after the 12-3 start: four straight losses, wins in five of six games, losses in six of its final seven games. Everything was still in front of the Hoosiers. One win against Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State, or Ohio State, even with just a split with Northwestern, and this team probably goes from first four out to in the field. Unfortunately, Indiana just couldn’t get it done, and Darian DeVries will finish with his second straight heartbreaking first four out finish (last year’s was with West Virginia).
USC – Out
Highest projection: No. 6 seed (No. 23 overall)
Lowest projection: Out
While I will name a different team later in this article as the most unpredictable team in the conference, if we’re giving out superlatives, the Trojans win the award for most dramatic season (or most topsy-turvy). USC started the season 8-0, won the Maui Invitational, and was 12-1 entering the New Year. The Trojans then lost both games to the teams in the state of Michigan by a combined margin of 59 points. USC stabilized by going 6-3 to reach an 18-6 record on the season, and that’s when the wheels officially fell off. Between injuries all over the roster and Chad Baker-Mazara’s eventual dismissal from the team, something was brewing late in the season, and it wasn’t good. The Trojans lost their final eight games of the season, going from a high-end bubble team to nowhere near the field in the span of a month.
Washington – Out
Highest projection: No. 11 Seed (No. 44 overall, Last Four In)
Lowest projection: Out
The Huskies were one of the most disappointing teams in the entire Big Ten. Washington was supposed to be the only true bubble team in the conference throughout the season, but it never got higher than a few spots above the cut line. The Huskies spent the entire season somewhere between No. 44 and No. 60 on KenPom. Washington alternated wins and losses, mixed in with a few losing streaks when facing off against some of the conference’s best teams. The Huskies hovered around the bubble, but never had enough quality wins to burst through it, and really fell off with a 3-6 stretch to end the regular season. While Hannes Steinbach had an amazing individual season, the rest of Washington’s roster fell short of expectations, and the Huskies will hope to rebound next year.
Minnesota – Out
Highest projection: Out
Lowest projection: Out
Call them streaky, call them inconsistent, call them fun, the one thing you can’t debate is that Minnesota was the most unpredictable team in the conference this year. The Golden Gophers started 4-4, then upset a red-hot Indiana team. They won five in a row to get to 10-5 with wins against Northwestern on the road and Iowa at home, then lost seven in a row, but snapped that streak by beating Michigan State. They started the season playing at a decent tempo, then ended the season playing at a pace akin to the no-shot-clock era, with just six players in the rotation in the final game of the season. Niko Medved will be able to make Minnesota respectable again soon, but injuries completely derailed this team, keeping them far out of the NCAA Tournament picture.
Northwestern – Out
Highest projection: Next Four Out
Lowest projection: Out
The Wildcats went with a much younger roster this season, and while it might not have paid off this year, the long-term future looks promising if Northwestern can keep its freshman class in Evanston. Ironically, the ‘Cats started the season No. 57 on KenPom and ended the season…No. 57 on KenPom. Nick Martinelli was amazing all season long, while Northwestern as a team was more of a roller coaster, starting 4-0 and ending the season with a 5-3 stretch, while the middle of the season was a struggle, with the ‘Cats going 6-16 in their other 22 games. Northwestern peaked in tournament projections after the early undefeated start, but couldn’t sustain that level throughout the season, ending pretty far out of projections with a 15-19 record.
Oregon – Out
Highest projection: No. 7 Seed (No. 25 overall)
Lowest projection: Out
Oregon had one of the hardest seasons to watch in the conference. The Ducks faced adversity at every turn, as their star duo of Jackson Shelstad and Nate Bittle played a combined 37 games. Shelstad went down very early in the season, while Bittle missed a ton of action in the middle of the season. Even when healthier, Oregon started the season 4-5 and looked out of sorts, but perhaps in a different world, the Ducks turned around their season. Unfortunately, in our reality, the peak of Oregon’s season was the beginning, when the Ducks were in my personal top 25. Oregon won four of seven games to end the regular season, but still finished 12-20 overall.
Penn State – Out
Highest projection: Out
Lowest projection: Out
Penn State was projected to be the worst team in the conference, and unfortunately for Nittany Lions fans, that was an accurate projection. Penn State peaked at 8-1 this season, but even then, the Nittany Lions were still barely inside the top 100 on KenPom. Penn State quickly fell to 9-12, ended the season at 12-20, and finished at the bottom of the conference standings.
Maryland – Out
Highest projection: In Consideration
Lowest projection: Out
Maryland was a very odd team to project this season. KenPom had Maryland ranked No. 34 to begin the season, but they were already down to No. 52 after losing by 10 to Georgetown at home in the second game of the season. The ‘Terps started the Players Era Festival with a win against UNLV, but that was when the season peaked. Maryland lost by 30 in back-to-back games against Gonzaga and Alabama, then lost by 18+ to Iowa and Michigan in its first two conference games. The Terrapins finished the season 12-21, far out of NCAA Tournament consideration.
Rutgers – Out
Highest projection: Out
Lowest projection: Out
Unfortunately, the Scarlet Knights never had a chance to dance. Rutgers started the season struggling through close victories against Quad 4 teams, eventually lost to Central Connecticut (289th in the NET), and never pulled off any huge upsets either. The Scarlet Knights ended the season 14-19, without ever surging into the NCAA Tournament conversation.
