Northwestern men’s basketball is amid the toughest two-game stretch of its season. Facing an 0-6 conference record and fighting hard to keep their year from spiraling down the drain, the Wildcats now must reckon with an uncomfortable reality: their turnaround has to come against some of the best teams in the nation.
NU faced one elite squad on Tuesday night, where the ‘Cats suffered a 79-68 loss in a hard-fought battle with No. 13 Illinois. Now it will welcome a squad arguably more threatening in No. 8 Nebraska.
The Cornhuskers head to Welsh-Ryan Arena riding a 21-game win streak dating back to last season, including an undefeated 17-0 record this year that marks the best start in program history.
Winning this game will undoubtedly be a difficult task for Northwestern, but there are clear opportunties for the ‘Cats to rise to the challenge and come away with an upset victory. Here are three ways they can make that happen.
Good perimeter defense (and rebounding the misses)
The engine of Nebraska’s offense is its three-point shooting. In their most recent win over Oregon, the Huskers converted a season-high 17 shots from the behind the arc, including seven each from players Pryce Sandfort and Braden Frager.
In its prior game against Indiana, Nebraska erased a nine-point deficit by hitting six of its next eight threes in the second half, going on to win the game. Simply put, the team’s perimeter shot-making is scary good and one of many reasons Nebraska hasn’t lost a game this season.
This game could turn ugly if Northwestern lets Nebraska get hot from three at any point in the game — three-point shooting is often streaky and contagious, and in the blink of an eye, a two point game can become a double-digit hole. Northwestern knows that pattern all too well this year.
In their loss to Michigan State, the ‘Cats blew their lead in large part because they left Jaxon Kohler open at the three-point line, where he hit multiple threes to give Michigan State an eight-point lead. More recently, in its loss to Illinois, all comeback attempts the ‘Cats put together in the second half were thwarted by the Fighting Illini’s shotmaking, with Tomislav Ivisic hitting back-to-back threes in the final three minutes to put the game on ice.
To win this game, NU must avoid clogging the paint and must accurately read pick-and-rolls. It cannot get baited by pump fakes and lose track of matchups, and it must limit the amount of wide-open shots Nebraska takes.
While perimeter defense is essential, rebounding goes hand-in-hand. While NU’s rebounding margin was better against Illinois, the ‘Cats have still struggled on the glass this year. The last thing a sharpshooting team like Nebraska deserves is second-chance opportunities. If the ‘Cats can limit them, it’ll make things much easier on the defense and lead to more chances offensively.
Versatile shot creation
As our own Adam Sutro noted, Illinois’ defensive strategy against Northwestern was simple: clog the paint and force NU to create shots off the dribble. The former method seemingly worked — Northwestern was outscored 34-18 in the paint, the biggest differential out of any statistical category from Tuesday’s game. The ‘Cats will be facing an even tougher task against this Nebraska defense, which allows just 65.8 points per game and includes defensive studs like Sam Hoiberg, who is second in the Big Ten with 2.1 steals per game and had six of them against Oregon. The Huskers take great pride in their defense, and NU’s offense must be prepared to humble them.
It’s obvious what Martinelli is capable of offensively, and a big game from the man ranked second in the country in scoring seems essential for an upset. But finding further opportunties for Jayden Reid is also paramount. He flexed his playmaking ability against Illinois, where his career-high 28 points came largely through confidence and poise with the ball in his hands and a willingness to shift around the court and create the easiest shot possible. He succeeded not just with jump shots and layups, but also with three pointers, as he went 4-0f-6 from deep.
When facing stout defenses, finding as many scoring avenues as possible is important. Reid proved against the Fighting Illini that he’s capable of versatile scoring, and forcing the Huskers to defend Reid’s offensive range paired with Martinelli’s elite scoring would be a tall task. It’s also important that the ‘Cats versatility extends not just to the shots they take, but the players that take them. Arrinten Page, Tre Singleton and Angelo Ciaravino all making an impact offensively — be it through scoring, offensive rebounds and assists — would pay dividends for this Northwestern team.
Draw fouls and don’t foul
One of the positive signs from Northwestern’s game against Illinois was the free throw disparity. NU went 15-of-17 from the line, in comparison to just eight free throw attempts by the Fighting Illini. Those 15 foul shots came largely through Martinelli and Reid, who hit eight and seven shots respectively. But against a tough opponent, that mark is impressive, and it largely reflects the aggressive and forceful nature the ‘Cats at large should strive to exhibit on offense.
On the contrary, despite Nebraska’s 90-55 thumping of Oregon Tuesday evening, the Huskers ceded more foul shot attempts to the Ducks than they took, with Oregon having 17 and Nebraska having 11. This proves that the Huskers’ strong defense is not immune to fouling, and the Wildcats should take advantage of opportunities to use free throws to climb out of holes and extend leads. Making them is also important, as one or two free throws could make or break a game’s result.
This issue is also a double-sided coin — the ‘Cats also need to avoid fouling on defense and allow the Huskers to pile on points at the line. The Wildcats did a good job of limiting free throws against Illinois, and it’s imperative that carries over into Sunday’s matchup.
