2025-2026 Season
Overall Record: 16-3
Big 10 Record: 7-1
Previous 3 Games
1/21: W – 89 – 70 vs Maryland @ Home
1/17: W – 77 – 67 vs Minnesota @ Home
1/14: W – 79 – 68 vs Northwestern @ Away
Illinois Personnel
Starters
Bench
Key Analytics
(Per KenPom.com – National Rank in ())
KenPom Ranking – 42
Offense
Adjusted Efficiency: 129.5 (1)
Adjusted Tempo: 66.3 (240)
Average Possession Length: 18.3 (279)
Effective Field Goal%: 55.8 (41)
Offensive Rebound%: 39.8 (7)
Three Point%: 35.2 (99)
Two Point %: 58.6 (25)
Defense
Adjusted Efficiency: 99.2 (23)
Adjusted Tempo: 66.3 (240)
Average Possession Length: 17.6 (234)
Effective Field Goal%: 46 (18)
Offensive Rebound%:
27.2 (40)
Three Point%: 31.4 (76)
Two Point %: 45.3 (15)
Key Stat for Purdue
Three Point Percentage
Purdue Offense: 38.4%
Illinois Defense: 31.4
Notes:
Purdue lost to UCLA because it is a team built to shoot the basketball, who could not shoot the basketball. The Boilermakers missed a couple of 3’s that were so open I would have been upset about missing them in an old man pickup game at the YMCA. Fletcher Loyer has looked confused about the point system in basketball and continues to clang shots off the rim rather than put the ball through the rim. Let’s hope the trip home recalibrated Purdue’s senior after a dreadful West Coast swing.
The only way Purdue can overcome Illinois’s size is to punish them from the outside. If they do that, this game could go either way. If they don’t, they’ll get blown out at home for the second time this season.
Key Stat for Illinois
Two Point Percentage
Illinois Offense: 58.6 (25)
Purdue Defense: 51.7 (188)
Purdue allowed a UCLA team that was shooting 52.5% from two to shoot 64% from two. It’s a miracle Purdue found a way to stay in this game. Now they face an Illinois team with NBA size that shoots 58.6% from two. It’ll be a long day at the office if they allow the Fighting Illini the same wide-open opportunities at the rim because they actually like to score inside.
Brief Thoughts
I’ve been sick the last few days. I had a fever and flu medicine version of this preview that was pretty unhinged. Maybe I’ll share it after the season. Now that it’s just the medicine floating around in my brain, things are a little calmer, but the gist of the first article hasn’t changed.
This, in some ways, is a test of concept for Matt Painter. Can a highly skilled, but undersized back court hold up against the NBA size of the Illinois? Kylan Boswell not being available is helpful because he would have gutted the defense like Donovan Dent did for UCLA. Keaton Wagler isn’t the same type of threat to drive the ball, and driving the ball is how you beat Purdue’s defense. The more things change, the more they stay the same I guess.
This isn’t complicated. Purdue has to hit their outside shots and mid-range pull-ups because there won’t be any room at the rim. Braden’s going to have to find a way to navigate his way through the lengthy Illinois defense when he has the ball, and he’s going to have to guard someone with a massive size advantage on defense. Remember when TKR was one of the best finishers in the country, and Fletcher ripped hearts out and ate them, Temple of Doom style, with his three-point shooting? Those guys need to show up today. The Big 3 has turned into the Big 1, and as good as Braden is, he can’t beat Illinois on his own. Luckily, home cooking has always done TKR and Fletch right. It’s time for them to make a statement in this game.
If I’m Illinois, I invert my offense and send whoever Braden is guarding to the post. Illinois’s big men can, and will, shoot from the outside. Sending a post double is a dangerous proposition, but one Purdue is going to have to live with to protect their guards and forwards from the size of Illinois. They’re going to need the Fighting Illini to cooperate and not be hot from the three, and Illinois has the shooters capable of going nuclear from three.
Then there is the Stojakovic problem. When you put an undersized defender, he’ll hit pull-ups and turn arounds all game long. One of two things needs to happen for Purdue to contain him. Fletcher either needs to hit shots and match him bucket for bucket in a matchup of two guys who would rather tag out on defense, or he’ll need to be on the bench, and the bigger, more athletic Jack Benter needs to take his place. I’d much prefer Fletch doing what Fletch does, but if he continues to clang shots, it’s Benter time (although the crafty Stojakovic will have Jack in hell as well).
On paper, this is a nightmare matchup for Purdue. If the Boilermakers shoot up to their standards, you can ball that paper up, set it on fire, and use it to stay warm because that’s the great equalizer.
Predictions
KenPom
Purdue: 78
Illinois: 75
Drew
Purdue: 72
Illinois: 67
Looking Into the Crystal Ball
Look for Purdue to take the air out of the ball and make Illinois’s freshmen play every possession with game pressure in the second half. I refuse to believe that Fletch and TKR can continue to play as they have over the last month. One of the two need to show signs of basketball life today for Purdue to stay in the game, and all three need to show up for the win.
As you can see from my prediction, I think they all show up, and Purdue wins a slugfest with a couple of offensive surges in the second.
This team came into the season with National Championship aspirations. This game will go a long way, in my mind, in either solidifying them or disproving them. Purdue has to beat Illinois at home with Boswell out of the lineup. If they can’t, they’re still a good, maybe even great team, but my expectations will be significantly diminished.
