It has been a disaster of an offseason for the Astros GM, now does he have what it takes to fix it?
Every season in MLB is essentially a new project, with additions and subtractions to the active roster, to the 40 man roster, to the minor league system. It is a new puzzle each year, one with an unknown shape, and the GM is tasked with acquiring enough pieces or the right pieces (or both) to fill a puzzle that he doesn’t yet know the layout of.
It’s a very difficult job trying to guess the puzzle ahead
of time, which is why GMs make a whole lot of money. They hold the keys to the castle, building it and maintaining it is their foremost responsibility. The challenges of doing so are irrelevant, you are judged on wins and losses.
Right now the Astros are losing too much. The way in which they are losing is borderline incredulous.
In the Golden Era of Astros baseball, pitching and defense have been hallmarks of the organization. The Astros consistently won by pitching their tails off and taking advantage of their opponents’ mistakes and then punishing them for making them.
This year, the Astros are the team making the mistakes. They are also the team that cannot pitch.
That the Astros cannot pitch is a concept so far from the reality of the past 10 years, it would not be unreasonable for someone to assume I am pulling their leg, or at the very least am being highly sarcastic. Yet, here we are.
The Astros 5.78 ERA as a team is the worst in baseball. It is 0.71 runs per game WORSE than the 2nd worst team, the Arizona Diamondbacks.
How did the Astros get here? After all, when they were the most injured pitching staff in a generation, they still managed a respectable 3.86 ERA, good for 11th in MLB. What has gone wrong?
Everything.
After the team elected to allow staff ace Framber Valdez to leave via free agency, they chose to address their pitching needs in the bargain bin. While that isn’t necessarily a failing strategy, this year and to this point, it has been.
The Astros signed/acquired 5 starting pitchers and a group of relievers, that to this point have failed far more than they have succeeded.
Mike Burrows was acquired in a 3-way trade in the offseason that saw Houston send Jacob Melton and Anderson Brito to Tampa. in his rookie season a year ago in Pittsburgh, Burrows showed some promise. He went 3-4 with a 3.94 ERA over 96 innings, with a 1.24 WHIP and 97 strikeouts.
This season to date, he has not fared nearly as well, currently sitting at 1-4 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over 37.2 innings. He has allowed the most hits in the AL with 49, and he has already allowed 8 home runs.
Burrows H/9 rate has exploded from 8.3 to 11.7. While he has been the subject of some tough luck, that doesn’t explain the 3.5 hits per nine increase, nor does it explain his HR/9 rate jumping so hard (from 1.2 last year to 1.9 this year). Poor command has been mostly to blame.
Tatsuya Imai has been perplexing. He was practically untouchable all spring, and then started strong in his first game until he lost the strike zone in the 3rd inning and couldn’t get out of it. Imai was terrific in his second start, going 5.2 innings scoreless with 9K for his first MLB win. His 3rd start was an abject disaster in which he allowed 3 runs on 4 walks and 1 hit, and only recorded one out. He went on the IL after that start with arm fatigue.
In his first rehab start, he again couldn’t find the strike zone, and threw only 31 of his 59 pitches for strikes. He will make another rehab start tonight in Sugar Land, and the Astros desperately need their biggest ticket free agent signing to right the ship and be the kind of frontline starter he was expected to be when he arrived.
Ryan Weiss has been a total failure. Coming over from the KBO where he dominated last season and led his team to their version of the World Series, he started well in his first 3 appearances and then completely fell apart. Weiss allowed just 1 run total in his first 3 appearances totaling 6 innings. He walked two and struck out 7. He looked like a terrific international signing.
However, over his last 6 outings, he has been simply awful. He’s allowed 21 ER over his last 20 innings, with 18 walks and a ridiculous 7 home runs. He hasn’t just set fire to games, he’s taken a flamethrower to them. He was optioned to Triple-A after his appearance last night as the Astros will try to figure out what happened to his command.
Nate Pearson was returning from surgery, and is also expected to make a rehab assignment today at Sugar Land. He has not yet made an appearance for Houston.
The two moves that can be argued in Brown’s favor for the pitching staff thus far are for Kai-Wei Teng and Peter Lambert.
Teng was acquired in a trade with the Giants for Jancel Villaroel. Teng has been one of their best pitchers, able to give them length, spot start, and handle leverage so far in a bullpen that has been significantly overworked and has not been able to get players into established roles. While Teng has not been used primarily as a starter this season, he has been a starter in the past, and Dana Brown did say they were interested in stretching Teng out as a starter.
Teng is 1-2 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He has allowed just 15 hits (albeit 3 HR) with 7 walks and 22 strikeouts. His versatility and effectiveness have been one of the few bright spots in the bullpen.
Lambert, who pitched the last 2 years in Japan, was originally signed by the Astros to a MiLB deal in November 2025. The Astros then released him March 24 after he did not make the Opening Day roster and Lambert triggered an opt-out clause in his contract. He re-signed a minor league deal with Houston 3 days later.
Lambert began the season at Triple A, posting a 1.84 ERA in 3 appearances (2 starts) for Sugar Land. He allowed 3 ER in 14.2 IP with 3 BB and 12K. Since being called up by the Astros, Lambert has been solid, going 1-2 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, having been the unfortunate recipient of poor relief in his first start. Lambert has generated a lot of swings and misses in his first 2 starts as well, and has been a solid lifeline for a rotation in distress.
This rotation retooling thus far has not succeeded, and has been further hampered by injuries to staff ace Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier, neither of whom is expected back until June at the earliest.
Now, Burrows could still get things turned around and he has been better in his past two starts. Imai could return to his proper and expected form and have a strong 4 months. Both of those things would go a long way to getting the Astros right and making Brown’s offseason look better.
Brown’s offseason literally hangs in the balance of the resurgence of Burrows and Imai. Those aren’t bad bets, but they leave no room for error.
What does Brown do if those two guys don’t pan out? It isn’t realistic to expect guys like Jason Alexander and Colton Gordon to be starters the entire season and be effective. Whether or not Weiss can right the ship is anyone’s guess but definitely should not be counted on.
The biggest question is what can Dana Brown do if the offseason is indeed a failure? The Astros don’t have the depth or the minor league top talent to acquire big time pitching at the trade deadline, if the team is even good enough to warrant such moves then. Those moves may need to be made much sooner.
Does Brown have the ability to swing those deals? Being in the final year of his contract, does he even have the authority to swing those deals?
We don’t know what handcuffs Brown has had to deal with, other than the payroll restrictions obviously put on him by owner Jim Crane, who is very reticent to pay the luxury tax for a third straight season unless he thinks there is a big move to make at the deadline to make them serious contenders. Right now, they are at best a Wild Card hopeful more than a Divisional contender, let alone a title contender.
We have seen this team overcome bad starts and bad stretches before (see 12-24 start in 2024). We have seen other teams do the same in recent seasons (see Atlanta 2021 and Cleveland 2025). It is possible.
What Brown can do for the Astros here is paramount to his job security. If the moves he’s already made don’t pan out, he is likely gone. Whether or not he has the ammunition or authority to make more moves is very much in question, and we are likely to find out what the answers to those questions are soon.
Brown needs a new plan to get this team in the right direction. Does he have one? Is he allowed to execute it?
Right now, he appears to be the person most culpable for a struggling team’s roster that has an overburdened and underperforming pitching staff, and Jim Crane doesn’t like to lose.
