The Miami Hurricanes fill face the Ole Miss Rebels in the 2026 Fiesta Bowl as part of the College Football Playoff Semifinals. The game takes place on Thursday, January 8th at 7:30pm on ESPN.
Ole Miss has
the all-time series lead 2-1, with Miami currently on a one game winning streak dating back to their 1951 matchup. This will be the Rebels first Fiesta Bowl while Miami is 0-4 in Fiestas. We reviewed the regular season matchup of Ole Miss and UGA in part one of the series, we’ll look at their Sugar Bowl matchup here in part two.
The Doppler
The Ole Miss offense is 14th in FBS in Points Per Play with 0.494. Miami’s offense is 26th at 0.495. The Ole Miss defense holds opponents to 0.323 PPP which is good for 35th in OPPP, while Miami’s defense is 4th while allowing 0.208 OPPP.
The Rebels offense is 10th in FBS in Points Per Game having scored 37.6 per contest. The Miami defense is allowing only 13.1 PPG which is 4th in FBS.
The Rebels defense is allowing 20.4 PPG which is 29th in FBS. The Miami offense is scoring 31.6 PPG which is 30th in FBS.
On the season Trinidad Chambliss has thrown 21 touchdowns with three interceptions while averaging 9.0 yards per attempt. Chambliss has also rushed for eight TD’s on 4.1 yards per carry (including sacks).
Kewan Lacy averages 5.0 yards per carry with 23 TD’s. The receiving corps is led by Harrison Wallace III and his 15.7 yards per catch and four TD’s. TE Dae’Quan Wright averages 15.9 yards per catch with four scores.
The Rebels defense is led by LB Princewill Umanmielen’s 12 TFL’s, eight sacks and an INT. Another 11 TFL’s comes from LB Suntarine Perkins, while DT’s William Echoles and Zxavian Harris combine for 20 TFL’s. DB Wydett Williams Jr. has three picks and eight PBU’s.
PK Lucas Carneiro is perfect on PAT’s and has missed only three FG’s all season.
The Film
In the 2026 Sugar Bowl, Ole Miss came back to beat the Georgia Bulldogs 39-34. The Rebels won the 4th quarter 20-10 after a tough 2nd quarter where UGA pulled to a 21-12 halftime lead.
On money downs, Ole Miss finished 6-of-16 while UGA finished 5-of-15. Both teams were flagged four times in the game with the Rebels being penalized for 48 yards and the Dawgs only 38. Both teams also lost a fumble, but the Ole Miss fumble was returned for a TD by UGA.
Carniero made all three of his FG attempts while UGA kicker Peyton Woodring finished 2-of-3 on his FG tries.
THE REBELS OFFENSE
Chambliss finished with two TD passes on 7.9 yards per pass attempt and zero turnovers for the Rebels. He added only 14 yards rushing and was not sacked by UGA.
Lacy averaged 4.5 yards per carry with two touchdowns but did have the fumble that was returned for a touchdown by the UGA defense. The Dawgs logged three TFL’s and seven PBU’s vs. Ole Miss.
Through the air, Chambliss was able to find 10 different Rebels receiving targets with two hitting double-digit yards per catch marks. Wallace III led the way with 17.3 yards per grab and a touchdown. De’Zhaun Stribling averaged 17.4 yards per catch.
Above– You can’t get caught peeking inside if you’re the box end defender. UGA’s EMOL peeks in and Lacy bounces this outside and gets Ole Miss out of their end zone.
Above– We’ve talked ‘give arm / take arm’ all season. Lacy has a mean stiff arm, you can’t reach for his shoulder pads if he sticks that arm out, you have to wrap both of your arms around his and yank him down with it.
Above– Chambliss has only three picks but he does throw some iffy balls. The difference is he throws them with ball placement out and away rather than inside and high.
Above– Chambliss is 6-0 on a good day and hard to get to. If you can’t sack him, get your hands up and bat down throws. This is much like rebounding, it takes: timing, skill and attitude.
Above– When QB’s see 1-on-1 press man they’re taking that shot. They read the safety to that side, Chambliss sees him squat so he’s going to throw it. The WR is smart and outside releases to get the throw away from the S and to the boundary.
Above– Chambliss on a sprint out. They use one WR to pick, one to fake a pick and pivot (in the EZ), and a flat player to conflict that CB. The CB can’t get his eyes off Chambliss/Flat and the inside-out guy scores.
Above– Where many teams miss the boat here is that the defenders start reaching for the ball before securing the tackle. UGA secures the tackle and the 2nd man in on the vice rips at the ball. Lacy fumbles for a scoop & score. You gotta secure the soup.
Above– Remember the direct snap stuff with Simmons and Chambliss working in October? Kirby isn’t going to fall for that twice. UGA is prepared and Hetherman needs to be ready, too. 4th and 1 stops are huge.
Above– Chambliss escapes this for a 1st down throw on the opposite side of the field. Not that he throws it across the field, he winds up over there and dumps to Lacy. No6. needs to work the inside hip, not the outside. He has two buddies and the sideline outside. This is what I mean about discipline, you can’t over-run him. Scallup and scrape, don’t turn your shoulders.
Above– You can see the pick play and trying to sneak the inside guy into the middle of the EZ. I like this pick play rub route stuff MUCH more than the red zone fade.
Above– Chambliss sees the CAP of the CB/WR and there’s no help coming from the S. This is a back shoulder fade in the red zone for a TD.
THE REBELS DEFENSE
The Rebels held Gunner Stockton to only 6.5 yards per pass attempt and a touchdown. If you remember the regular season matchup Stockton averaged almost 10 yards per attempt with four TD passes. Stockton did score twice on the ground but was held to only 1.5 yards per carry as Ole Miss sacked him twice.
Nate Frazier handled the bulk of the workload with 5.7 yards per rush on 15 carries. The Rebels defense hit UGA for nine tackles for loss on the night.
Stockton found nine different Bulldogs receivers for a catch, with four going for double-digit yards per catch marks. That means the Ole Miss DB’s are susceptible to deep shot plays. But the Rebels also logged six PBU’s against the UGA receivers.
Echoles, the 310 pound DT, raised some hell with two TFL’s and two PBU’s for Ole Miss. Perkins had two TFL’s, a sack and a PBU; and Harris, the 320 pound DT, had 10 stops with a TFL and a PBU.
Above– If you get the run game going the play-action game dials up. Delp comes cross the formation for an old school drag route with a boot like the wing-t days of yore.
Above– And now you can see why you run these. Conflict the defender- he plays Q you dump the drag, he plays the drag you run.
Above– UGA loves that motion guy turning up to arc to the 2nd level. The wrapping TE works to the 1st man that shows. Then it’s just an inside zone play and let the back work to the hole.
Above– TE’s pulling to kick and the Orbit motion fake reverse. I don’t recommend Elija Lofton use his head to kick that guy out, I prefer the shoulder, but it works here.
Above– Remember our Cotton Bowl Do’s and Don’ts? DON’T throw deep middle into double coverage!
Above– DO– Do take your check downs. Dumping off to a back in space forces CB’s to make open field tackles. UGA shakes the first try before a dude slips, two guys bang heads. This turns into a 1st down check down.
Above- What’s open? Eventually Shannon Dawson’s beloved screen game. If Toney is the kick out guy, Daniels the screen player, and Mauigoa and Cooper are out in space Miami can rumble this for a big gain. UGA gets tripped up, Miami won’t.
The Forecast
The Canyonero Keys to Victory main theme in part one was to once again own the road. Miami is the favorite now and has to act accordingly. Come out and dominate, don’t hesitate. The individual keys are:
1- Contain Chambliss. Chambliss is a hell of a playmaker and play extender. If the D-Line loses their pass rush lanes and gets undisciplined it’s lights out because he can scramble, but he can also give WR’s time to get free vs. defensive backs. Play aggressive but smart, rush his outside hip and keep him inside the pocket, and if the DT’s keep their rush lanes Miami can control him.
2- Take what’s given. When UM lost to Louisville and SMU the games felt like the Miami staff was forcing things to work. Square peg, round hole. What great OC’s do is adapt to what’s working today- if the run game is there pound the rock and play-action; if the run game isn’t there throw the ball around the yard. Don’t force screens, the ball to Toney, or a-gap runs. Take what’s open and the Ole Miss defense won’t control the LOS.
3- Win the sidelines. These three point games come down to the clock, kicking and penalty yards. Miami cleaned up their act against OSU with regards to flags, and Carter Davis got back on track in a dome vs. the swirling winds of College Station, TX. Mario Cristobal has looked much more relaxed on the sidelines and the ‘Canes haven’t had that Butch Davis ‘scared to screw up’ vibe Mario let off earlier in the season. Pete Golding is entering his 3rd game as a head coach but he’s already 2-0 vs. Jon Sumrall (now at Florida) and Kirby Smart. The sideline is a mirror of the head coach, if you’re neutral they’ll be neutral.
Score Prediction: Miami by 3. The ‘Canes are in a good spot match-up wise and the true difference maker will be whether or not the DL lets Chambliss escape or keeps him bottled up. I think DL coach Jason Taylor can beat the drum on rush lane integrity all week and get the ‘Canes star DL to forego stats for a team effort. Bain, Mesidor, Scott and Moten have to work as a complete unit and not individuals to get this job done.
