Of all the things that went wrong for the 2025 Detroit Tigers from the All-Star break to the end of the regular season, the starting rotation felt like the biggest piece of the puzzle to many fans. Injuries to Jackson Jobe and then Reese Olson left that group vulnerable, and the front office failed utterly to find competent help behind Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, and Casey Mize. Even so the club still graded out among the best rotations in the American League by year’s end, and in the postseason
that backend mattered little and the struggles of the offense took center stage in their heartbreaking Game 5 ALDS loss to the Mariners. Have they done enough this offseason to keep the rotation near the top of the league?
Obviously they haven’t done a lot, but they didn’t really need that much to begin with. Jack Flaherty decided to use his option to return, again solidifying a good top three, though Skubal is obviously doing the heavy lifting for that trio and is projected for 5.9 fWAR, while Flaherty and Mize remain modestly above average with projections of 2.6 and 2.3 fWAR, respectively. Reese Olson is probably their second most effective starter, but he’s currently in the fourth position at 2.1 fWAR, as until he proves otherwise, the Tigers can’t depend on him to hold up to a full year’s work. Then the Tigers signed one of the top KBO names coming back stateside in the form of right-hander Drew Anderson, projected for 1.2 fWAR. After a really good year overseas, he’ll be in the mix competing with Troy Melton (1.2 fWAR) for the fifth spot, with Keider Montero (0.5 fWAR) and Sawyer Gipson-Long (0.5 fWAR) on the outside of that battle.
Beyond them they have relievers like Brant Hurter and Tyler Holton who can spot start, a decent Triple-A starter in Troy Watson, maybe a bit of help from Ty Madden for a spot start or two, and a pair of interesting but fringy lefty prospects in Jake Miller and Andrew Sears who may be able to chip in later on over the course of the season. Jackson Jobe isn’t really expected to return until August, so it’s hard to guess how much help he might be late in the year.
It would certainly have helped to add a top name in this free agent class like lefties Ranger Suarez or Framber Valdez. The latter is still available and has AJ Hinch ties, but as Valdez is the last man standing among really good dependable starters, competition will be fierce. I can’t imagine the Tigers would be involved anyway, but it’s even less likely that Valdez will be available 2-3 weeks down the road once the Tigers have clarity on Skubal’s 2026 salary, and perhaps a better idea of how their broadcast rights situation will play out.
The Tigers may have a small move left ahead of them, probably a cheap backend starter or bullpen arm who will simply get a chance to compete for a job in spring camp, but they’re basically done barring something unforeseen, like trading Skubal, or one of their starters getting injured before we even get to camp.
That should be enough to remain near the top of the American League, as the Tigers currently have the third ranked starting rotation, including depth pieces, in the major leagues according to Steamer projections. Signings of Valdez and other remaining free agents will alter these projections, but basically this is how it lines up with free agency winding down.
Based on Steamer’s WAR projections, the answer is quite obviously yes. I admit I prefer the ZIPS projections, but the differences aren’t usually too striking.
These assessments shouldn’t be so surprising. As bad as our recent memories of the August and September Tigers may be, and despite the natural myopia in a fanbase that leads us to think that other teams are stronger than they are, it doesn’t erase the first three and a half months of the season when the Tigers were steamrolling everyone. No doubt the Tigers rotation situation feels precarious, because if Skubal is hurt for any long period of time they’re in big trouble and at best a middle of the pack rotation. But other than maybe the Red Sox and Dodgers, that’s true of everyone at the top. The Pirates rotation without Paul Skenes is going nowhere, for example.
The American League’s best
If we break it down to just the American League, the Red Sox have the best rotation with Garrett Crochet leading the way and the signing of Ranger Suarez putting them over the top. Of course, they also have several other above average starters in Brayan Bello, Sonny Gray, and Kutter Crawford should he get return in good form from knee issues and the wrist surgery that cost him the 2025 season. It’s not exactly the 2013 Tigers rotation, but it’s very good and they have plenty of depth as well.
We can also find some rotations that aren’t as good at the top, but are certainly deeper in good starters than the Tigers. The Seattle Mariners for example, have Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Luis Castillo, all of whom project to be above average starting pitchers. There’s no one who’ll knock your socks off over the course of a full season, but the first three at least are a little better than any of Olson, Flaherty, or Mize. They also have a better crop of pitching prospects than the Tigers by far right now. Right-handers Ryan Sloan and Jurrangelo Cjintje, along with 2025 first round lefty Kade Anderson, aren’t on the cusp on the major leagues yet and may not be ready in 2026, but all three are comfortably top 100 pitching prospects who will likely all start the year in Double-A. I’d be willing to bet that one of them goes off in 2026 and is at least an average major league starter by the second half.
The Blue Jays are in a similar boat after signing Dylan Cease. Cease should give them strong frontline starter production to lead the way. Trey Yesavage could be every bit as good even if the projections don’t love him due to an inability to handle a pro caliber workload. Kevin Gausman is still a quality starting pitcher though clearly not the guy he was a few years ago. Shane Bieber is a nice bounceback candidate to be an average or better starter again if he’s put Tommy John in the rearview mirror. And while the Tigers signed Drew Anderson from the KBO, the guy above him was Cody Ponce, who signed with the Blue Jays back in December. Finally, Jose Berrios and Eric Lauer are depth guys, but should be able to handle plenty of innings for them.
The Blue Jays also seem like a team who might get into the hunt for Framber Valdez or Chris Bassitt after losing out on both Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette. Pivoting to improving their rotation a little more would have them looking like a repeat appearance in the World Series is a good possibility.
The Yankees rotation is reasonably good, but nothing to write home about as things stand. Max Fried is really good, and Carlos Rodon, Will Warren, and Cam Schittler are above average. They’re in the Mariners camp with a lot of well above average starters, though their depth isn’t very good. Warren and Schlittler are young and have a solid chance to break out further this season, and the Yankees will be hoping Garrett Cole returns to form quickly sometime in the summer months as he tries to return from last March’s Tommy John surgery, but the notion that he’ll look like Garrett Cole again before 2027 is a bet with pretty long odds.
Both the Mariners and Yankees rotations do look like they could hold up to losing their top arm better than the Tigers’ can, but that’s probably not worth worrying about. If Skubal gets hurt for more than a month, the Tigers season is presumably going right down the drain. The concern is more losing one or more of their 2-4 arms and having to replace them with a backend type.
Best of the AL Central
Within the division, the Royals look like the Tigers closest competition in terms of starting rotations. Cole Ragans gives them a very good top starter assuming the rotator cuff issue is behind him. Of course he’s been pretty injury prone in general in his career. Kris Bubic is pretty good, and Michael Wacha is an average starter with proven durability. In different ways, they’re both very comparable to Flaherty, Olson, and Mize. Meanwhile, Seth Lugo looks pretty well washed up after his 2024 resurgence, but may still have another good season left in the tank. They don’t have much in the way of depth or top shelf prospects behind that group, however.
The Guardians rotation looks quite average on paper. They don’t have a single pitcher projected to be worth more than 2.5 fWAR. However, they do have several more quality starting pitching prospects nearing the major leagues to provide reinforcements. Lefty Parker Messick should be about ready to give them average production, at least. At the top, they have Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee, who are both 26-year-old quality mid-rotation starters. Williams certainly has the stuff to become a frontline guy this year. The Guardians starting pitching has rarely graded out that well in recent years, but they play great defense and game plan well, typically outperforming their FIP metrics by quite a bit. With right fielder Chase DeLauter and infield masher Travis Bazzana closing in on the big leagues, they may finally have some serious help for Jose Ramirez on the other side of the ball as well. No doubt they’ll be back to go toe-to-toe with the Tigers yet again, even if it’s a mediocre group on paper.
At this point I wouldn’t expect any significant moves throughout the division. Maybe the Royals smell an opportunity and pick up Bassitt or Lucas Giolito. That would get them closer to the Tigers and give them better insurance considering the lack of impact pitching prospects. Trading for pitching at this time of year is nearly impossible, at least in terms of good, established pitchers or top pitching prospects, so beyond those last few good starters available, the field is pretty well set until the trade deadline in July.
No doubt we’ll end up revisiting this topic in more depth with a focus on the AL Central in March, once rosters are closer to being finalized in the runup to Opening Day.
In terms of Steamer’s projections specifically, you can certainly take some issue with using FIP based FanGraphs projections if you like, but I continue to find fWAR better at projecting the next season’s production. Baseball-Reference’s rWAR is more useful for looking back at what did happen last season, as opposed to what a pitcher’s strikeout, walk, and home run rates say should happen in a neutral context without defense involved.
The Tigers are set for now but the front office needs to be ready to adjust
Ultimately, the Tigers don’t need to be clogging up the works with another backend starter. If they aren’t going after Valdez or Bassitt, or perhaps one of Zac Gallen or Lucas Giolito, who could do reasonably well here too, it’s just not worth it. Adding another subpar pitcher on a flier, that they can’t option or easily cut loose should things go poorly, might do more harm than good.
Assuming they aren’t doing any of those things, Scott Harris needs to be better prepared to trade prospects for young pitchers with options as needed at midseason. He tried to avoid giving up anything of note in terms of prospects when the Tigers badly needed pitching help in 2025, and it went very poorly. That can’t happen again if the Tigers find their pitching depth badly stretched for any length of time.
You can’t necessarily stockpile against every contigency that might emerge during the regular season. The best defense is to have another top pitching prospect on the cusp of the major leagues. The Tigers don’t have that, they just have some fifth starter type depth and a few decent spot start candidates. What they need to combat problems that may emerge, is the willingness to adjust make an impactful trade as the need arises.
