The New England Patriots offense has been one of the best in the NFL this season, ranking 10th in points per game (24.2), eighth in yards (362.6) and seventh in EPA per play (0.107). How much the unit’s comparatively easy schedule contributed to that success cannot be quantified in any serious fashion, but its ability to perform against quality opposition will be put to the test this week.
The Buffalo Bills, who need a win on Sunday to keep their chance of overtaking the Patriots in the AFC East alive,
field a defense capable of making life hard for the Patriots. Unsurprisingly, their division rivals are showing plenty of respect ahead of Sunday’s matchup.
“This is really as well coordinated of a group as we’ll play all year,” said offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels on Thursday. “They do so many things to challenge you before the snap and then there’s a whole litany of things that happen once the ball’s in the quarterback’s hands. Really well-coordinated at all three levels. Disguise, show you one thing, do something else. There’s a variety and a volume to what they play on defense.
“Some teams that play a lot of different things and have a lot of different schematic elements to their defense don’t do a lot of them well. This is not the case. The Bills play a lot and do a lot well. They can play man coverage; they can play zone; they can pressure; they can play different kinds of zone; they provide you with different challenges on third down, as many as we’ve seen all year probably.”
Led by head coach Sean McDermott and coordinator Bobby Babich, Buffalo’s defense does not stand out from a statistical perspective. The unit is ranked 18th in points allowed per game (22.5), 10th in yards (307.1) and 16th in EPA (0.012) on the season. However, it has shown its ability to play complementary defense and take the ball away in key situations.
Look no further than last week’s come-from-behind win over Cincinnati, which saw the group register two takeaways to help erase what was a 10-point deficit earlier in the fourth quarter.
In addition, the Bills have shown some improvement over the course of the season in their biggest area of concern: run defense. While still only ranked 24th over the last month in EPA (0.004), that is a step up to the 30th-place ranking between September and October (0.062). In a game projected to be as close as Sunday’s, that could be enough to end up making a difference.
For McDaniels, all of that is testament to the Bills’ coaching.
“I have great respect for Coach McDermott and his staff. They’ve done a tremendous job for a long time and certainly play their best in the biggest moments,” he said. “We’re expecting everybody that has any opportunity to play to play, and they have good players at all three levels. This is going to be a big challenge.”
