As was often emphasized during the Phoenix Mercury’s run to the 2025 WNBA Finals, the team featured only two holdovers from their 2024 roster: Kahleah Copper and Natasha Mack.
That became a favored factoid
for a reason, as it concisely captures the franchise’s quick and comprehensive transformation. And despite suffering a 4-0 sweep in the Finals, that transformation was an unquestioned success.
Although, not one that does not leave the Mercury without lingering questions.
The risks were worth the reward
Since the Mercury made an unexpected run to the 2021 WNBA Finals, the three-time champion franchise had experienced a steady decline for reasons controllable (not retaining former head coach Sandy Brondello after the 2021 season) and not (the unjust detainment of Brittney Griner in a Russian prison). The responsibility of stewarding the final seasons of Diana Taurasi’s career also proved a blessing and burden, as the organization repeatedly made all-in moves to provide DT with another chance at a championship, even as the league’s all-time leading scorer no longer had the juice required to captain a true contender.
Taurasi’s retirement gave Phoenix permission to chart a new direction—and they wasted no time in doing so. The team made no effort to retain Griner, who was an unrestricted free agent last offseason, and jettisoned Natasha Cloud, one of their big free agent gets during the 2024 offseason, in favor of the opportunity to form a new “Big 3” of Copper, Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas.
The big bet on the combined star power of that trio, however, left Phoenix with limited financial flexibility, requiring the team to round out the roster with mostly inexperienced, unproven players. The Mercury, while intriguing, appeared too top-heavy to be considered a legitimate contender, as an injury to one of Copper, Sabally and Thomas surely would sink the team.
The Mercury silenced the skeptics.
Even as Copper missed 16 games, with Sabally and Thomas each absent for five, Phoenix emerged as title threat, earning a top-four seed due to a supporting cast that was elevated within a modernized offensive attack and an aggressive defensive system, in addition to the talents of their stars, particularly Thomas, who, once again, was an MVP candidate.
Through the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Mercury realized the best version of themselves, eliminating the defending champions in the first round before overpowering the title favorites in the semifinals. As Thomas warned before the Mercury faced the Lynx, “They haven’t seen us at full strength.”
In the Finals, however, Phoenix fell flat, with the fading of the physicality, aggression and swagger with which they bullied the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx dooming them to defeat to the Las Vegas Aces even before Sabally’s Game 3 concussion left them depleted.
That ending should not diminish all Phoenix accomplished.
But the limitations are real
And so much of what Phoenix accomplished goes back to Thomas.
The Mercury were organized around their “Big 3” and were optimized by head coach Nate Tibbetts’ offensive and defensive strategies, but Thomas was, as is her nickname, the “The Engine.”
She is player who defies all logic. She, infamously, has no labrum between her two shoulders, sapping her of anything that resembles a viable jump shot. And yet, she is an offensive force, the epitome of a point forward who is the WNBA’s undisputed triple-double queen. She is a 33-year-old whose game is dependent on strength and athleticism. And yet, she keeps getting better, a tornado of two-way impact who will go at or guard whoever is across the court from her. Put Thomas on any team in the league and it’s safe to assume that—some way, somehow—that team will overachieve. She injects a squad with a sneering spirit, exemplified in how she talks smack with a devious smile, that ensures her team will wring out every advantage and edge.
There’s just one issue.
The defiance that defines Thomas and the teams she leads diminishes at the highest level. Her limitations impose a ceiling. To put it simply, Thomas is a 6-foot-2 forward without a jumper, while A’ja Wilson is a 6-foot-4 forward with one. Those distinctions explain why one has no championships and the other now has three.
It might seem unfair to focus on Thomas’ shortcomings; it should be unnecessary to further emphasize that what she can do far outweighs what she can’t. Still, if winning it all is the No. 1 priority for the Mercury, recognizing where Thomas, and, in turn, her teams, have consistently fallen short is required.
An AT-led team likely will go further imagined, but not far enough.
So, what’s next?
So, where does that leave the Mercury?
As the league prepares to enter what promises to be a tumultuous offseason, where, presuming a new CBA is agreed to and the 2026 season proceeds as scheduled, almost every veteran player is an unrestricted free agent, including Phoenix’s “Big 3.” Still, the Mercury are well positioned reload. With an owner eager to invest in treating WNBA players like the world-class professionals they are, an approach most evidenced by a sparkling $100 million practice facility, Phoenix will appeal to superstars, whether that means retaining the Copper-Sabally-Thomas trio, tweaking the configuration or going all in on a new core.
At the team’s exit interviews, general manager Nick U’Ren expressed a commitment to continuity, while also grasping looming uncertainties that could open paths that are proactive, such as the chance to “capitalize” on the opportunity to attract top talents, or reactive, if members of the Mercury’s core chose to make different free agency decisions.
U’Ren revealed the most when indicating that the team planned to maintain Thomas as their centerpiece. After Game 4, Thomas and Copper appeared bought in on their partnership. (Sabally, due to her concussion-induced absence, did not have the opportunity to share any thoughts about her future.)
However, while the Mercury’s big bet on an all-new “Big 3” worked out almost perfectly in 2025, there’s no guarantee that another top-heavy, star-studded squad supplemented by outlier performances from mostly unproven players will come together so seamlessly.
The Mercury built something that was successful. But is it sustainable?
We’ll see. Fortunately for Phoenix fans, they can trust that the organization is fully committed to taking the risks necessary to reward the X Factor with another shot at a championship.
