Missouri and Vanderbilt will meet as Top 15 ranked opponents for an opportunity to crash the Playoff and become one of the wildest stories in the 2025 college football zeitgeist. Mizzou has been in this
spotlight before but, even though Vanderbilt hasn’t, don’t rely on that aspect for anything. Clark Lea and Diego Pavia have been flipping Vanderbilt football history on its side and crushing all the well-worn anecdotes of what Commodore football should be. They’ve risen to the occasion nearly every week this year and just came off a thorough whipping of a ranked LSU squad. This is going to be tough.
When Missouri Has The Ball
After playing Alabama and Auburn in back-to-back weeks, going up against Vanderbilt’s 37th-ranked defense is going to feel like a welcome break. No longer will Mizzou being going up against the 2nd-best rush defense or a Top 20 pass defense; instead they’ll be facing the nation’s 65th-ranked rush defense and 59th-ranked pass defense (according to SP+). Of particular note, Vandy’s defense is 62nd in yards per rush (when sacks are removed) and 80th in yards per successful rush. The issue then? They have a Top 30 run stuffing rate and are 17th in limiting yards after first contact. In other words, they’ll bring you down when they get to you but it takes them a little bit to get there. The reason for this is that they feature a defense that is 10th in havoc generation, driven primarily by a linebacking corps that ranks 11th in havoc and a defensive line that comes in a 21st. If you can endure the onslaught early in the play there’s plenty of room to maneuver afterwards but that requires a mobile, twitchy quarterback and/or a running back that can absorb contact and keep going. Sound like any players you know????
Run The Dang Ball
Vandy is allowing a 41% success rate on the ground and a 39% success rate through the air. But we all know how this offense prefers to move the ball and what plays better to their identity. Let’s set the bar at a 44% success rate on the ground.
Maintain The Dang Possession
Diego Pavia plays offense which means he’s can’t hurt you if the Vanderbilt defense is on the field. The Commodore offense moves at the third-slowest pace in the country and has some of the lowest plays and possessions in the country. Why? Because they run a perfect underdog tactic: shrink the game, keep the other offense on the sideline, capitalize over a smaller sample set. Basically the same thing Mizzou wants to do, except the Tigers are able to draw possessions out and run up a high clock count over 12-14 plays. That needs to be done here, as well, and 3rd-down conversions are (as always) vital. Vandy is the 65th-best 3rd-down defense while being particularly bad at stopping 3rd-and-shorts and 3rd-and-mediums. I’d like to see Mizzou get back to its roots and finish over 50% in 3rd-downs for the game.
Finish Your Dang Drives
Vanderbilt’s defense currently features the 36th best scoring defense, allowing 3.89 points per scoring opportunity. However, if offenses can get inside the 20-yard line, they’ll finish with a touchdown 60% of the time or 83% of the time in goal-to-go situations. Mizzou on the other hand: 25th in the country with 5.12 points per scoring opportunity. If this game goes to script for each team there will be about 10 possessions so, ideally, the Tigers will need to generate at least 5 scoring opportunities and finish a little higher than their average (say, 5.4?) because I think 27 or 30 points is going to be the winner here.
When Vanderbilt Has The Ball
Missouri’s 11th-best defense will meet the country’s 8th-best offense and, likely, see a lot of things they are used to.
- Mobile quarterback? Yeah.
- Bruising run game? Yup (3rd in the country).
- Slow pace? Oh yeah (133rd in pace, 119th in plays per game).
But the killer part is that, oh guess what, Vanderbilt is excellent at throwing the ball, too, as their passing attack currently ranks 3rd in the country.
But, again, Vandy is similar to Mizzou in that they rely on some great running backs and a highly effective mobile quarterback to power this operation. They run a triple-option based ground game with tons of RPOs mixed in, meaning the reason they’re so hard to stop isn’t just that they are great (which they are), but that they’ll make the right read and put the ball where they know the defense won’t be, and then let their athletes do their thing.
This isn’t a big, downfield passing game like Cam Coleman’s. This isn’t a quarterback using timing routes to hit a flurry of receivers like Alabama. It’s fast decisions in space, and they slowly choke out any hope you might have while they hold on to the ball and their defense havocs you to death. It’s a recipe Mizzou is familiar with and, thankfully, can be stopped.
HAVOC
While Diego Pavia is a chaos agent that is a better passer when he’s on the move, he’s also not good when he’s under pressure. BUT DON’T BLITZ PLEASE. According to PFF, 12 of his 15 passing touchdowns have occurred while he is being blitzed, and features his second highest yards per attempt at 8.8 to go with a tremendous 65% completion percentage . But under pressure? Different guy: only 3 touchdowns, with 3 interceptions, and a 44% completion percentage to go with 4.7 yards per attempt. So, Damon Wilson? Zion Young? Chris McClellan? Yeah, go get him on your own, dudes. I’ll need a pressure rate of at least 32% along with 4 sacks.
Turn Them Over
Not only is the Vanderbilt offense living a charmed life of a +4 turnover margin, but they’ve only turned the ball over 6 times in 7 games, when they should have only given up 4.7. All of those turnover stats are Top 20 in the country. And that’s the benefit of playing a slow, grindy, counter-based offense that doesn’t force anything. When they do find themselves in a “forcing it” position they’ve failed (like against Alabama!). Mizzou needs to speed them up and force bad decisions, and even a +1 turnover margin would do wonders here.
Conclusion
It’s a conference road game against a Top 10 opponent with the inside track of the Playoff on the line and the eyes of the college football world upon you. Just win.
