The Dodgers can clinch a playoff spot, win the NL West, and end the rivalry with the San Francisco Giants in this four game series. That feels pretty massive, doesn’t it? Well, not if you let it. The Dodgers have been hammering the Giants like a piñata for years and years now, the only candy coming out of it being our anguish. The rivalry died in 2021 and the Dodgers are setup for a long window of contention while the Giants continue to try to figure out how to shape a third rebuild in 11 seasons.
So, forget all that. Let’s focus on what really matters, like…
Why is Michael Conforto so good against the Giants?
On the season, Conforto is slashing .199/.303/.334 with 11 home runs and 34 RBI. The online Dodgers fans hate to see him in the lineup — and yet, when he faces his former team, he’s better than he’s been since his All-Star season of… 2017. The Giants paid him $36 million over two seasons and got .238/.322/.418 in 958 plate appearances. Why is he so mad at the team that resuscitated his career? In 30 PA (8 games), he’s s 10-for-26 with a double and a pair of home runs, generating a triple slash of .385/.433/.654. Four of his home runs this season have come against the Giants… or the Rockies, but even there, he’s hitting just .171 in 40 PA vs. Colorado.
So, what’s the deal?
Well, the easy answer is that Michael Conforto hates the Giants and, by extension, all of us. The other answer is that the Giants pitchers are taking a batter off because they see how he’s performed against other teams — only, against teams with a better than .500 record, he’s stepped up, slashing .232/.343/.391, compared to .162/.257/.270; so, maybe he’s the one who takes games off when the competition is thin. The Giants give him focus. Again, if it helps to think of this as being personal, go for it. That’s the easy answer — and the one I enjoy the most. He’s like a variation on the Ricky Ledée tune (Ledée was, famously, a player the Giants acquired who was unfathomably awful for the Giants during their playoff run in 2004 but wound up being more than serviceable for the Dodgers the following season).
But this is the problem with the Giants facing the Dodgers. Do you want to be annoyed by the cremains of Michael Conforto slapping singles through the hole to drive in runs or would you rather Freddie Freeman cave in Logan Webb’s sinker or Shohei Ohtani string up his victims like Hannibal Lecter or Mookie Betts perforate the defense with his line drives and speed? Don’t forget about Max Muncy! And here’s Teoscar Hernandez just for fun. It’s the Ghostbusters problem: the Giants have to choose the form of The Destructor.
And make no mistake, the Dodgers will destroy the Giants. Maybe not in all four games, but as we’ve seen in basically every series since 2022, the Dodgers get the best of the Giants every time. The Dodgers have lost three series (out of seventeen) to the Giants since the start of 2022. They are 37-17 over the same span and have outscored the Giants, 285-209. Of course, if you want to be really mean to yourself, they’re 40-17 since the NLDS, outscoring the Giants 303-217. That’s 5.3 runs per game to 3.8. If you want to be even meaner to yourself, LA is 15-7 against SF since the start of last season and have outscored them 129-99, meaning the Dodgers are averaging about 6 runs per game against the Giants these days.
The regular season series stands at 1,287-1,285 in favor of the Giants, a lead in the lifetime head-to-head that they have never ended a season trailing. Indeed, the fun of the rivalry (RIP) was that while the Dodgers have always been a little more glamorous, a little more A-list, the Giants have always managed to stay right there with them through a steady stream of Hall of Famers and winning with their own style (or, as the Shot Heard ‘Round the World indicated, brazen cheating). The franchises are tied in championships with 8 apiece and the overall winning percentages are beginning to align. The Giants have a .535 winning percentage over their 143 seasons (11,617-10,095) while the Dodgers are at .532 in 142 seasons (11,517-10,135). But the last 50 years or so have really swung things, to the point that the death of this historic rivalry was inevitable.
Since 1975, the Dodgers are 4,398-3,632 (.548). That’s an average of 88 wins a season (discounting 2020, and the strike-shortened 1994 & 1995) to go with 24 postseason appearances and 8 trips to the World Series, where they’ve gone 4-4 so far. Meanwhile, the Giants are 4,080-3,950 (.508), averaging 82 wins per season. They’ve made 11 trips to the postseason and are 3-2 in the World Series.
The Buster Posey years temporarily halted a widening chasm, but those days are over. Embrace the abyss.
But this series preview was about Michael Conforto. Maybe he won’t go wild against the Giants over these next four days. Maybe his performance will be such a story that he thinks about it too much and locks up. Other storylines:
- Logan Webb was tagged with 12 earned runs across 2 starts against the Dodgers this season at Oracle Park (just 9.1 IP), but back in June he pitched 7 innings of 2-run ball at Dodger Stadium. That was a turning point in his season, though, because since then, he’s posted a 4.10 ERA and 3.00 FIP — it was 2.58 and 2.42 after that game. And since the All-Star break, when the Giants have needed him most, he’s not pitched like an ace (4.14 ERA / 2.96 FIP). Indeed, Justin Verlander has been the ace of the staff (2.63 ERA, +1.7 fWAR).
- Rafael Devers has just one extra base hit over his last 11 games and is slashing .125/.255/.150.
- The Giants’ bullpen is ranked 23rd in MLB here in September (-0.1 fWAR, 4.74 ERA, 4.11 FIP). The Dodgers’ pen is ranked 27th.
- If you include their postseason meetings, then the Giants lead the lifetime series, 1,295-1,291-17; so, a Dodgers sweep would only push the rivalry into a tie to end the season.
- The Giants vs. the Dodgers in September, since 2017: 10-24 (.294).
- Dave Roberts’ lifetime record against the Giants: 93-66 (.585).
Series overview
Who: San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
Where: Dodger Stadium | Los Angeles, California
When: Thursdat & Friday at 7:10pm PT, Saturday at 6:10pm PT, Sunday at 1:10pm PT
National broadcasts: MLB Network simulcast for out of market (Thursday), Apple TV+ (Friday)
Projected starters
Thursday: Logan Webb (RHP 14-10, 3.34 ERA) vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP 11-8, 2.66 ERA)
Friday: Robbie Ray (LHP 11-7, 3.50 ERA) vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP 10-2, 3.53 ERA)
Saturday: TBD vs. Tyler Glasnow (RHP 3-3, 3.06 ERA)
Sunday: TBD vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP 6-3, 3.17 ERA)
Where they stand
Giants: 76-76, 4th in NL West , 2.0 GB in Wild Card, Last 10: 4-6, Road record: 38-39
Dodgers: 85-67, 1st in NL West, #3 in NL playoff seeding, Last 10: 7-3, Home record: 49-28
Prediction time
Wouldn’t it be fun if the Giants swept the Dodgers in LA? That will not happen, but it’s fun to imagine. Instead, I’ll imagine that Bryce Eldridge will hit his first home run at some point in the series and that the Dodgers won’t make a mockery of Logan Webb’s stuff for the third time this season.
